AI correctly predicted the Anh U20 win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Anh U20 Anh U20 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U20 Pháp | 31.9% | 29.9% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.5% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Anh U20 | 38.5% | 43.6% | -5.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Anh U20's win probability at 43.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Anh U20 win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Anh U20. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Anh U20 higher (43.6% vs model 38.5%, 5.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Anh U20 win 1–2).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · U20 Pháp 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Anh U20 38.5%
- xG · U20 Pháp 1.23 — Anh U20 1.37
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · U20 Pháp 3.06 · Draw 3.46 · Anh U20 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · U20 Pháp 29.9% · Draw 26.5% · Anh U20 43.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · U20 Pháp 3.11 · Draw 3.50 · Anh U20 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · U20 Pháp 29.9% · Draw 26.5% · Anh U20 43.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Anh U20 win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
74/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Anh U20 win · U20 Pháp 1–2 Anh U20
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1167,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0407,
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Anh U20",
"sort_key": 1789.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"alert_team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.11,
"hero_label": "Anh U20",
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
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"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Anh U20",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Anh U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Anh U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.093,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.093,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Anh U20 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Anh U20 as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Anh U20",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Anh U20).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1167,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.11,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"steam_team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Anh U20).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Anh U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Anh U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.093,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.093,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Anh U20 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Anh U20 as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Anh U20",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Anh U20).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1167,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: U20 Ph\u00e1p 1.23 xG vs Anh U20 1.37 \u2192 Anh U20 38.5%",
"Market: Anh U20 ~43.6% implied",
"Market Drift: U20 Ph\u00e1p odds \u2191 +3.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Anh U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.08,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"market_prob": 29.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.03,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.11,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Anh U20",
"market_prob": 43.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.23,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.23,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.29,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.29,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Anh U20",
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "U20 Ph\u00e1p"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Anh U20\u0027s win probability at 43.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Anh U20",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.1,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Anh U20 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: U20 Ph\u00e1p 1.23 xG vs Anh U20 1.37 \u2192 Anh U20 38.5%",
"Market: Anh U20 ~43.6% implied",
"Market Drift: U20 Ph\u00e1p odds \u2191 +3.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Anh U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.11,
"hero_label": "Anh U20",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "U20 Ph\u00e1p odds lengthened \u2191 +3.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, U20 Ph\u00e1p has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Anh U20. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from U20 Ph\u00e1p \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Anh U20. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, U20 Ph\u00e1p has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from U20 Ph\u00e1p \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Anh U20 above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, U20 Ph\u00e1p has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Anh U20",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Anh U20 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.08,
"edge_pp": 2.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"market_prob_pct": 29.86,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.03,
"edge_pp": 3.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.54,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.11,
"edge_pp": -5.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Anh U20",
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from U20 Ph\u00e1p \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Anh U20 (43.6%).",
"U20 Ph\u00e1p odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.4%, 4/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Anh U20 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 27m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on U20 Ph\u00e1p (3.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.11",
"3.00",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.06 \u2192 2.88 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 27m",
"pick_team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.06"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
3.11,
3.06,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,4.3 56.0,9.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.11"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "england-u20",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Anh U20",
"away_team_id": 10309,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10309.webp",
"away_team_name": "Anh U20",
"away_team_public_id": "0a1xd8Bw3XbVqI",
"away_team_slug": "england-u20",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1632086,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "France",
"home_team_display_name": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"home_team_id": 10287,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10287.webp",
"home_team_name": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"home_team_public_id": "5h1F1rQRrbgbBZ",
"home_team_slug": "france-u20",
"ht.home_team_slug": "france-u20",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea5u U20 Elite",
"league_id": 890,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/890.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea5u U20 Elite",
"league_public_id": "3LL0KHXjrFzQjC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 09:30:00",
"public_id": "1Mkqjghrtt1rS6",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "La Nucia",
"venue_name": "Estadi Olimpic Camilo Cano La Nucia"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4153,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1167,
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.436,
"draw": 0.2654,
"home": 0.2986
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4147
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2863,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.2654,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.436,
"draw": 0.2654,
"home": 0.2986
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2741
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2906,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.2986,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.436,
"draw": 0.2654,
"home": 0.2986
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3047
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.0849,
"ev": -0.1807,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": 0.0355,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.0064,
"implied_prob": 0.3215,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1679,
"alpha_yes": 0.2308,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0429,
"edge_yes": -0.0429,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0705,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1033,
"implied_no": 0.4131,
"implied_yes": 0.5869,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1679,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4187
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2308,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.1033,
"implied_prob": 0.5889,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5785
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4187,
"p_final_yes": 0.5785,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2213,
"alpha_under": 0.2012,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.66,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.0723,
"edge_under": 0.0723,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1087,
"ev_under": 0.093,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"implied_over": 0.5543,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5526,
"implied_under": 0.4457,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4474,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2213,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5369
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2012,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4616
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5369,
"p_final_under": 0.4616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.093,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.093,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.093,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Anh U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.093,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.093,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Anh U20 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Anh U20 as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Anh U20",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Anh U20).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1167,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1167,
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Anh U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1679,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0075,
"market_prob": 0.4111,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1679,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4187
},
"p_final": 0.4187,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0705,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2308,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.1033,
"implied_prob": 0.5889,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5785
}
},
"edge": 0.0429,
"ev": 0.026,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0156,
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"p_final": 0.5369
},
"p_final": 0.4616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
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},
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},
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"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1632086,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.093,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Anh U20",
"home": "U20 Ph\u00e1p"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.093,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1167,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632086,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T09:29:07.552371+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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