Kiểm toán dự đoán: Casric Stars vs Venda FC Dự đoán, tỷ lệ cược & mẹo cá cược AI

Sep 18, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 61%

AI correctly predicted the Casric Stars win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Cấp dự đoán F

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
  • 1X2 Casric Stars Casric Stars ✔ Chính xác
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Không đúng

Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Venda FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Khoảng cách xác suất lớn nhất: Venda FC +8.5 pp

kết quả Người mẫu Thị trường đóng cửa Sự khác biệt Tín hiệu
Casric Stars 40.4% 47.7% -7.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 30.6% -1.2 pp Aligned
Venda FC 30.1% 21.6% +8.5 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Venda FC's win probability at 30.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.6%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Casric Stars win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Venda FC.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Casric Stars more conservatively (31.9% vs model 40.4%, 8.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Casric Stars win 2–0).

Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay

Dòng thời gian dự đoán

Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Casric Stars 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Venda FC 30.1%
    • xG · Casric Stars 1.41 — Venda FC 1.19
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Casric Stars 1.85 · Draw 2.88 · Venda FC 4.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Casric Stars 47.7% · Draw 30.6% · Venda FC 21.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Casric Stars 1.85 · Draw 2.88 · Venda FC 4.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Casric Stars 47.7% · Draw 30.6% · Venda FC 21.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Casric Stars win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Ảnh chụp lịch sử

Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.

Phán quyết lịch sử: Observe
Quyết định lịch sử No Primary Bet
kết quả Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 57/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8196708

Closing Odds 4.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Casric Stars win · Casric Stars 2–0 Venda FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp

Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến ​​trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.

Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.

Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "1aca3973687e8556e08619fe98bbad8d9bee654e33533dc5d0c95814eadf1f00",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.19,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3014,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.458,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2944,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.32,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.47,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.41,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4042,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Casric Stars or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Casric Stars"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.19,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Casric Stars",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0724,
        "edge_gap": 0.1036,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4771,
        "model_prob": 0.4048,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 30.1,
          "draw": 29.4,
          "home": 40.5
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.85
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.85,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Casric Stars Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.1,
        "market_odds": 1.85,
        "model_odds": 2.47,
        "overround": 13.3,
        "prob_edge": -13.6,
        "value_pct": -25.1,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 0,
        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 3,
        "away_score_rate": 69.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 3,
        "home_score_rate": 75.6,
        "no_prob": 45.8,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.19,
        "home_expected": 1.41,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 8.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 7.4
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Casric Stars or Draw",
            "prob": 69.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Casric Stars or Venda FC",
            "prob": 70.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Venda FC",
            "prob": 59.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Casric Stars or Venda FC",
        "pick_prob": 70.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 30.1,
        "draw_pct": 29.4,
        "home_pct": 40.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Casric Stars"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "-3.5",
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.3,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 22.8,
        "implied_prob": 24.5,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Venda FC Win",
        "model_prob": 30.1,
        "odds": 4.08
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Venda FC",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 21.64,
        "draw": 30.65,
        "home": 47.71
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 12:59:16",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 12:29:23",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Casric Stars",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 47.71,
          "gap_pp": -7.24,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 40.48
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 30.65,
          "gap_pp": -1.24,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.41
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 21.64,
          "gap_pp": 8.48,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 30.12
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 35.86,
          "gap_pp": 12.34,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 64.14,
          "gap_pp": -12.34,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 51.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.85,
          "early": 1.85,
          "implied_closing_pct": 47.71,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 47.71,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.88,
          "early": 2.88,
          "implied_closing_pct": 30.65,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 30.65,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.08,
          "early": 4.08,
          "implied_closing_pct": 21.64,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 21.64,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.54,
          "early": 2.54,
          "implied_closing_pct": 35.86,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 35.86,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.42,
          "early": 1.42,
          "implied_closing_pct": 64.14,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 64.14,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 12.3,
        "kind": "ou_o"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "lean_card": {
        "diff_pp": -2.9,
        "ev": -0.1875,
        "has_edge": false,
        "label": "1-1",
        "market_odds": 6.5,
        "market_prob": 0.1538,
        "market_prob_pct": 15.4,
        "model_prob": 0.125,
        "model_prob_pct": 12.5,
        "n_bookmakers": 2,
        "status_key": "no_value"
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
      },
      "top5": [
        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 12.5
        },
        {
          "label": "1-0",
          "prob": 10.5
        },
        {
          "label": "0-1",
          "prob": 8.8
        },
        {
          "label": "2-1",
          "prob": 8.8
        },
        {
          "label": "0-0",
          "prob": 7.4
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 1.41,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.1013,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 2.22,
          "edge": 0.0133,
          "edge_pp": 1.3,
          "market_prob": 0.4111,
          "mode": "market_first_btts",
          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "n_bookmakers": 2,
          "no": {
            "alpha": 0.1392,
            "best_odd": 1.55,
            "edge": -0.0182,
            "ev": -0.1155,
            "implied_prob": 0.5889,
            "model_prob": 0.458,
            "p_final": 0.5706
          },
          "p_final": 0.4244,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.2032,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0578,
          "value_side": "yes",
          "yes": {
            "alpha": 0.1013,
            "best_odd": 2.22,
            "edge": 0.0133,
            "ev": -0.0578,
            "implied_prob": 0.4111,
            "model_prob": 0.542,
            "p_final": 0.4244
          }
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2855,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -28.5,
          "text": "-28.5%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.2032,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 20.3,
          "text": "+20.3%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.2032,
        "n_bookmakers": 2,
        "no_prob": 45.8,
        "sort_key": 10332.88,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.2
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.1476,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 2.53,
          "edge": 0.0177,
          "edge_pp": 1.8,
          "market_prob": 0.3619,
          "mode": "market_first_ou",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "over": {
            "alpha": 0.1476,
            "best_odd": 2.53,
            "edge": 0.0177,
            "ev": -0.0395,
            "implied_prob": 0.3619,
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "p_final": 0.3796
          },
          "p_final": 0.3796,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.2195,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0395,
          "under": {
            "alpha": 0.2029,
            "best_odd": 1.435,
            "edge": -0.0244,
            "ev": -0.1193,
            "implied_prob": 0.6381,
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "p_final": 0.6137
          },
          "value_side": "over"
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.2291,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 22.9,
          "text": "+22.9%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.223,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -22.3,
          "text": "-22.3%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.2291,
        "n_bookmakers": 4,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10206.19,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "no_bet",
        "authority_note": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
        "consensus_odds": 1.85,
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "ev": -0.1889,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -18.9,
          "text": "-18.9%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4771,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": -0.0569,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -5.7,
          "text": "-5.7%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.4048,
        "raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.2511,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.1%",
        "show_primary_label": false,
        "side_label": "Casric Stars",
        "sort_key": 1785.775,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "4/4",
        "alert_breadth_note": "4/4 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -31.7%",
        "alert_team": "Venda FC",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 8.5,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 8.5,
        "hero_label": "Venda FC",
        "market_prob_pct": 47.7,
        "market_team": "Casric Stars",
        "model_prob_pct": 40.4,
        "model_team": "Casric Stars",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
        "steam_score": 97,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 8.5,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
          "summary": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "no_bet",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 8.5,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
            "summary": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars."
          },
          "alignment_key": "conflict",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
          "decision_strength": 4.7,
          "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
          "decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
          "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
          "execution_confidence": 35,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "No Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": false,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Casric Stars at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Casric Stars as the value side (40.5%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 7.2,
          "gates_failed": [
            "Execution confidence below 65"
          ],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "market_signal": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Casric Stars",
          "no_primary_reasons": {
            "all_triggered": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality"
            ],
            "calibration_mode": null,
            "codes": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality"
            ],
            "label": "Reason",
            "other_factors": [
              {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              }
            ],
            "other_label": "Other factors",
            "primary": {
              "code": "market_conflict",
              "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
              "name": "Market Conflict",
              "short": "Market Conflict",
              "subtype": "drift_against_model",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "secondary": {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "primary_block_explain": {
            "entries": [
              {
                "key": "positive_ev",
                "label": "Consensus EV +22.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                "ok": true
              },
              {
                "key": "gate",
                "label": "Execution confidence below 65",
                "ok": false
              }
            ],
            "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
            "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
            "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
            "title": "Why not Primary?"
          },
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "78 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "35 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "conflict"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 6,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": null,
          "reasons": [
            "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
            "Decision strength: 4.7/10",
            "Execution confidence below 65"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 78,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market steam conflicts with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "observe",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.1889,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
            "consensus_odds": 1.85,
            "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
            "disagreement_level": "moderate",
            "implied_prob": 0.4771,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4048,
            "raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.2511,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.1%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 4.4,
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "ok",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 0,
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.22
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "no_bet",
        "books_breadth_display": "4/4",
        "breadth_ratio": 1.0,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 80,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "Statistical edge detected",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Steam conflicts with model",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 20.8,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 10.0,
            "steam_coherence": 0.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 78,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 8.5,
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "max_gap_pp": 8.5,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.19,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 4.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.41,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.41,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": -31.7,
        "steam_conflicts": true,
        "steam_move_display": "\u2193 -31.7%",
        "steam_team": "Venda FC",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
            "score": 35,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 22,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 40,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 22,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "label": "No Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 8.5,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
            "summary": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 8.5,
              "key": "conflict",
              "label": "Disagree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "moderate",
              "probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
              "summary": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars."
            },
            "alignment_key": "conflict",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
            "decision_strength": 4.7,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
            "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
            "execution_confidence": 35,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "No Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": false,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Casric Stars at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Casric Stars as the value side (40.5%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 7.2,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Execution confidence below 65"
            ],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "No Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u25cb",
            "label": "No Primary Bet",
            "market_signal": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Casric Stars",
            "no_primary_reasons": {
              "all_triggered": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality"
              ],
              "calibration_mode": null,
              "codes": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality"
              ],
              "label": "Reason",
              "other_factors": [
                {
                  "code": "market_quality",
                  "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                  "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "tone": "warn"
                }
              ],
              "other_label": "Other factors",
              "primary": {
                "code": "market_conflict",
                "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
                "name": "Market Conflict",
                "short": "Market Conflict",
                "subtype": "drift_against_model",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "secondary": {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "version": "v1"
            },
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "primary_block_explain": {
              "entries": [
                {
                  "key": "positive_ev",
                  "label": "Consensus EV +22.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                  "ok": true
                },
                {
                  "key": "gate",
                  "label": "Execution confidence below 65",
                  "ok": false
                }
              ],
              "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
              "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
              "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
              "title": "Why not Primary?"
            },
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "78 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "35 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "conflict"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 6,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": null,
            "reasons": [
              "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
              "Decision strength: 4.7/10",
              "Execution confidence below 65"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 78,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market steam conflicts with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "observe",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.1889,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
              "consensus_odds": 1.85,
              "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
              "disagreement_level": "moderate",
              "implied_prob": 0.4771,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4048,
              "raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.2511,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.1%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 4.4,
              "reasons": [],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "ok",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 0,
                "strength_delta": 0.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.22
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "subline": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
          "tier": "observe"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Casric Stars 1.41 xG vs Venda FC 1.19 \u2192 Casric Stars 40.4%",
            "Market: Casric Stars ~47.7% implied",
            "Market Steam: Venda FC \u2193 -31.7%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model favours Casric Stars, but sharp money moved toward Venda FC.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -7.29,
          "fair_prob": 40.42,
          "label": "Casric Stars",
          "market_prob": 47.71,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.21,
          "fair_prob": 29.44,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 30.65,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.5,
          "fair_prob": 30.14,
          "label": "Venda FC",
          "market_prob": 21.64,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 11.78,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 36.42,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -11.78,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 63.58,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.09,
          "fair_prob": 54.2,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 41.11,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.09,
          "fair_prob": 45.8,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 58.89,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 8.5,
        "fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Venda FC",
        "market_prob_pct": 21.64,
        "status": "mild_value",
        "steam_team_name": "Venda FC"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Venda FC\u0027s win probability at 30.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.6%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "mild_value",
          "max_gap_pp": 8.5,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Casric Stars",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Conflicts with model",
            "positive": false
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 47.7,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": -7.3,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": -7.3,
            "label": "Moderate",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 78,
          "reliability_tier": "moderate",
          "summary": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
              "score": 35,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 22,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 40,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 22,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "no_bet",
              "label": "No Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Casric Stars 1.41 xG vs Venda FC 1.19 \u2192 Casric Stars 40.4%",
              "Market: Casric Stars ~47.7% implied",
              "Market Steam: Venda FC \u2193 -31.7%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model favours Casric Stars, but sharp money moved toward Venda FC.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 8.5,
        "hero_label": "Venda FC",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Venda FC odds shortened \u2193 -31.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Venda FC.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Venda FC.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Venda FC.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Venda FC."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Venda FC.",
            "Recent line movement on Venda FC (\u2193 -31.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (4/4) supports the current market view on Venda FC."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 8.5,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "moderate",
          "largest_gap_label": "Venda FC",
          "largest_gap_pp": 8.5,
          "lead": "The model rates Venda FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "moderate",
          "max_gap_pp": 8.5,
          "title": "Moderate Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": -7.29,
            "edge_pp": -7.29,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Casric Stars",
            "market_prob_pct": 47.71,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -1.21,
            "edge_pp": -1.21,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.65,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 8.5,
            "edge_pp": 8.5,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Venda FC",
            "market_prob_pct": 21.64,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "model_higher",
            "signal_label": "Model Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "mild_value",
        "status_label": "Mild Value",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Venda FC.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Casric Stars (47.7%).",
          "However, Venda FC has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -31.7%, 4/4).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Casric Stars, Market \u2192 Casric Stars, Recent sharp money \u2192 Venda FC.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 24.51,
        "closing_odds": 4.08,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 24.51,
        "entry_odds": 4.08,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 4,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -31.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -31.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.8%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -30.8
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 11,
            "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -28.9%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -28.9
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 2,
            "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -28.9%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -28.9
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 4,
        "breadth_display": "4/4",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.1,
        "is_drift": false,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -31.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 31.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 8m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "4/4 books synchronized on Venda FC (31.7% steam, score 97) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": -31.7,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "6.00",
            "5.04",
            "4.08"
          ],
          "display": "6.23 \u2192 4.08 \u2192 4.10",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 8m",
          "pick_team": "Venda FC",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "6.23"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "4.08"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.10"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            6.0,
            4.08,
            4.1
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,17.8",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "6.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "4.08"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "6.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.10"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 6.0,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Venda FC \u2193 -31.7% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Venda FC",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Venda FC \u2193 -31.7% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 4.1,
          "is_drift": false,
          "label": "Sharp signal",
          "move_display": "\u2193 -31.7%",
          "open_odds": 6.0,
          "summary": "Market moved toward Venda FC while the model still favours another side.",
          "team": "Venda FC",
          "tone": "against"
        },
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 97,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "4/4",
        "current_odds": 4.1,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -31.7%",
        "open_odds": 6.0,
        "pick_team": "Venda FC",
        "steam_score": 97,
        "steam_team_name": "Venda FC",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 8.5,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "venda-fc",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Venda FC",
      "away_team_id": 17357,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17357.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Venda FC",
      "away_team_public_id": "4ZmnPck5pTgxyE",
      "away_team_slug": "venda-fc",
      "country_code": "ZA",
      "country_display_name": "South-Africa",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/za.svg",
      "country_id": 143,
      "country_name": "South-Africa",
      "fixture_id": 1627722,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "South-Africa",
      "home_team_display_name": "Casric Stars",
      "home_team_id": 19997,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/19997.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Casric Stars",
      "home_team_public_id": "460o9HoxvJ9NE9",
      "home_team_slug": "casric-stars",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "casric-stars",
      "league_country": "South-Africa",
      "league_country_display": "South-Africa",
      "league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nam Phi",
      "league_id": 289,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/289.webp",
      "league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nam Phi",
      "league_public_id": "0mhkYeVzyMafIi",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-18 13:00:00",
      "public_id": "451juHHBhMFg0c",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1746,
            "best_odd": 4.08,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0148,
            "ev": -0.0569,
            "implied_prob": 0.2164,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2164,
              "draw": 0.3065,
              "home": 0.4771
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3012,
            "p_final": 0.2312
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4416,
            "best_odd": 2.88,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0055,
            "ev": -0.1331,
            "implied_prob": 0.3065,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2164,
              "draw": 0.3065,
              "home": 0.4771
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2941,
            "p_final": 0.301
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5349,
            "best_odd": 1.85,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0387,
            "ev": -0.1889,
            "implied_prob": 0.4771,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2164,
              "draw": 0.3065,
              "home": 0.4771
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4048,
            "p_final": 0.4384
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 4.08,
            "edge": 0.0561,
            "ev": 0.2287,
            "implied_prob": 0.2451,
            "model_prob": 0.3012
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 2.88,
            "edge": -0.0532,
            "ev": -0.1531,
            "implied_prob": 0.3472,
            "model_prob": 0.2941
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 1.85,
            "edge": -0.1358,
            "ev": -0.2511,
            "implied_prob": 0.5405,
            "model_prob": 0.4048
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.1392,
          "alpha_yes": 0.1013,
          "best_no_odd": 1.56,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.22,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": -0.1309,
          "edge_yes": 0.1309,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2855,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1155,
          "ev_yes": 0.2032,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0578,
          "implied_no": 0.5889,
          "implied_yes": 0.4111,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 2,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.1392,
              "best_odd": 1.55,
              "edge": -0.0182,
              "ev": -0.1155,
              "implied_prob": 0.5889,
              "model_prob": 0.458,
              "p_final": 0.5706
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1013,
              "best_odd": 2.22,
              "edge": 0.0133,
              "ev": -0.0578,
              "implied_prob": 0.4111,
              "model_prob": 0.542,
              "p_final": 0.4244
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 2,
          "p_final_no": 0.5706,
          "p_final_yes": 0.4244,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.1476,
          "alpha_under": 0.2029,
          "best_over_odd": 2.55,
          "best_under_odd": 1.5,
          "consensus_over_odd": 2.53,
          "consensus_under_odd": 1.435,
          "edge_over": 0.1178,
          "edge_under": -0.1178,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.2291,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0395,
          "ev_under": -0.223,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1193,
          "implied_over": 0.3642,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.3619,
          "implied_under": 0.6358,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.6381,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 4,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1476,
              "best_odd": 2.53,
              "edge": 0.0177,
              "ev": -0.0395,
              "implied_prob": 0.3619,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.3796
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2029,
              "best_odd": 1.435,
              "edge": -0.0244,
              "ev": -0.1193,
              "implied_prob": 0.6381,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.6137
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.3796,
          "p_final_under": 0.6137,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "avoid",
        "code": "no_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "stake_mult": 0.0,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "no_bet",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2291,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 4.7,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 4.7,
        "score_pre_penalty": 4.7
      },
      "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "no_bet",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "no_bet",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 8.5,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
          "summary": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars."
        },
        "alignment_key": "conflict",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
        "decision_strength": 4.7,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
        "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
        "execution_confidence": 35,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "No Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": false,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Casric Stars at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Casric Stars as the value side (40.5%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 7.2,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Execution confidence below 65"
        ],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "No Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u25cb",
        "label": "No Primary Bet",
        "market_signal": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Casric Stars",
        "no_primary_reasons": {
          "all_triggered": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality"
          ],
          "calibration_mode": null,
          "codes": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality"
          ],
          "label": "Reason",
          "other_factors": [
            {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            }
          ],
          "other_label": "Other factors",
          "primary": {
            "code": "market_conflict",
            "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
            "name": "Market Conflict",
            "short": "Market Conflict",
            "subtype": "drift_against_model",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "secondary": {
            "code": "market_quality",
            "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
            "name": "Market Quality Risk",
            "short": "Market Quality Risk",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "primary_block_explain": {
          "entries": [
            {
              "key": "positive_ev",
              "label": "Consensus EV +22.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
              "ok": true
            },
            {
              "key": "gate",
              "label": "Execution confidence below 65",
              "ok": false
            }
          ],
          "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
          "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
          "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
          "title": "Why not Primary?"
        },
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "78 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "35 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "conflict"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 6,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": null,
        "reasons": [
          "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
          "Decision strength: 4.7/10",
          "Execution confidence below 65"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 78,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "The market has moved toward Venda FC, but the model still strongly favours Casric Stars.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "observe",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.1889,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
          "consensus_odds": 1.85,
          "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
          "disagreement_level": "moderate",
          "implied_prob": 0.4771,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4048,
          "raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.2511,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.1%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 4.4,
          "reasons": [],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "ok",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 0,
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.22
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
          "draw_prob": 0.2941,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.22
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 1.85,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0387,
          "ev": -0.1889,
          "implied_prob": 0.4771,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4048,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Casric Stars"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1013,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.22,
            "edge": 0.0133,
            "market_prob": 0.4111,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.542,
            "n_bookmakers": 2,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.1392,
              "best_odd": 1.55,
              "edge": -0.0182,
              "ev": -0.1155,
              "implied_prob": 0.5889,
              "model_prob": 0.458,
              "p_final": 0.5706
            },
            "p_final": 0.4244,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0578,
            "value_side": "yes",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1013,
              "best_odd": 2.22,
              "edge": 0.0133,
              "ev": -0.0578,
              "implied_prob": 0.4111,
              "model_prob": 0.542,
              "p_final": 0.4244
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.1309,
          "ev": 0.2032,
          "implied_prob": 0.4111,
          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1476,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.53,
            "edge": 0.0177,
            "market_prob": 0.3619,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "n_bookmakers": 4,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1476,
              "best_odd": 2.53,
              "edge": 0.0177,
              "ev": -0.0395,
              "implied_prob": 0.3619,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.3796
            },
            "p_final": 0.3796,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0395,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2029,
              "best_odd": 1.435,
              "edge": -0.0244,
              "ev": -0.1193,
              "implied_prob": 0.6381,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.6137
            },
            "value_side": "over"
          },
          "edge": 0.1178,
          "ev": 0.2291,
          "implied_prob": 0.3642,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1627722,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2291,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3012,
        "draw": 0.2941,
        "home": 0.4048
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2291,
        "implied_prob": 0.3642,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.2291,
          "implied_prob": 0.3642,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "show_betting_primary_label": false,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Venda FC",
        "home": "Casric Stars"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.096918,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2032,
        "implied_prob": 0.4111,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.542,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.1889,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
        "consensus_odds": 1.85,
        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "implied_prob": 0.4771,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4048,
        "raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.2511,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.1%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1627722,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T12:59:18.201524+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Casric Stars & Venda FC!

Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.

Đăng ký ngay
Quay lại Dự đoán
Giải hạng Nhất Nam Phi Giải hạng Nhất Nam Phi — Bảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 Magesi 5 4 1 0 13
2 Casric Stars 5 4 0 1 12
3 Leicesterfield 5 3 1 1 10
4 Highbury 5 3 1 1 10
5 Hope FC 5 3 0 2 9
6 Cape Town City 5 2 2 1 8
7 Upington City 5 2 2 1 8
8 Gomora United FC 5 2 2 1 8
9 Lerumo Lions 5 2 1 2 7
10 Hungry Lions 5 1 3 1 6
11 Đại học Pretoria 5 1 2 2 5
12 Midlands Wanderers 5 1 1 3 4
13 NWU FC 5 0 3 2 3
14 The Bees 5 1 0 4 3
15 Orbit College 5 0 2 3 2
16 Venda FC 5 0 1 4 1
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 Upington City 5 9 8 +1 8
2 Leicesterfield 5 8 6 +2 10
3 Magesi 5 7 2 +5 13
4 Casric Stars 5 7 3 +4 12
5 Cape Town City 5 6 4 +2 8
6 Hungry Lions 5 6 5 +1 6
7 Gomora United FC 5 6 6 0 8
8 Lerumo Lions 5 5 4 +1 7
9 Đại học Pretoria 5 5 6 -1 5
10 Highbury 5 4 2 +2 10
11 Hope FC 5 3 3 0 9
12 Midlands Wanderers 5 3 4 -1 4
13 Venda FC 5 3 9 -6 1
14 NWU FC 5 2 5 -3 3
15 The Bees 5 2 6 -4 3
16 Orbit College 5 1 4 -3 2