AI correctly predicted the Real Giulianova win.
The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Real Giulianova Real Giulianova ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Giulianova | 38.5% | 30.9% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.8% | -3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Atletico Ascoli | 31.9% | 36.2% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Real Giulianova's win probability at 38.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.9%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Real Giulianova win 4–2).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Real Giulianova.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Real Giulianova more conservatively (31.0% vs model 38.5%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Real Giulianova win 4–2).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Real Giulianova 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Atletico Ascoli 31.9%
- xG · Real Giulianova 1.37 — Atletico Ascoli 1.23
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:42 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Real Giulianova 2.81 · Draw 2.65 · Atletico Ascoli 2.40
- Implied 1X2 · Real Giulianova 30.9% · Draw 32.8% · Atletico Ascoli 36.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Real Giulianova 2.81 · Draw 2.65 · Atletico Ascoli 2.40
- Implied 1X2 · Real Giulianova 30.9% · Draw 32.8% · Atletico Ascoli 36.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Real Giulianova win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
21/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.81
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Real Giulianova win · Real Giulianova 4–2 Atletico Ascoli
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
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"away_xg": 1.23,
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"selection": null,
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},
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"away_played": 4,
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"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
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{
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"key": "1X",
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"prob": 68.1
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"total_expected": 2.6,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 32.82,
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 13:00:38",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 12:42:40",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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"top_value_gap": {
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"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0105,
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"p_final": 0.4418,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
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"under": {
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"value_side": "over"
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"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "+6.0%"
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"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0604,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10204.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
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{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0087,
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"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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"edge": -0.0087,
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"p_final": 0.5115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0743,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1518,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0154,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.5,
"text": "-1.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0154,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1796.15,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.046,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.6,
"text": "-4.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3095,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.046,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.6,
"text": "-4.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0807,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Real Giulianova",
"sort_key": 1788.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.54,
"hero_label": "Real Giulianova",
"market_prob_pct": 30.9,
"market_team": "Atletico Ascoli",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Real Giulianova",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0808,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Giulianova at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Giulianova as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Giulianova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.046,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3095,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0807,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.54,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.54,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Real Giulianova",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0808,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Giulianova at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Giulianova as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Giulianova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.046,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3095,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0807,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Real Giulianova 1.37 xG vs Atletico Ascoli 1.23 \u2192 Real Giulianova 38.5%",
"Market: Atletico Ascoli ~30.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Real Giulianova +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Real Giulianova with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.54,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Real Giulianova",
"market_prob": 30.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.25,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.3,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Atletico Ascoli",
"market_prob": 36.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.88,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.88,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.07,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.07,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Real Giulianova",
"market_prob_pct": 30.95,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Real Giulianova"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Real Giulianova\u0027s win probability at 38.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 30.9%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.54,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Real Giulianova",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.6,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Real Giulianova 1.37 xG vs Atletico Ascoli 1.23 \u2192 Real Giulianova 38.5%",
"Market: Atletico Ascoli ~30.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Real Giulianova +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Real Giulianova with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.54,
"hero_label": "Real Giulianova",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Real Giulianova.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Real Giulianova.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Real Giulianova."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Real Giulianova.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.54,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Real Giulianova",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.5,
"lead": "The model rates Real Giulianova considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.54,
"edge_pp": 7.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Real Giulianova",
"market_prob_pct": 30.95,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.25,
"edge_pp": -3.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.3,
"edge_pp": -4.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atletico Ascoli",
"market_prob_pct": 36.24,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Real Giulianova.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atletico Ascoli (30.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Real Giulianova, Market \u2192 Atletico Ascoli, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.59,
"closing_odds": 2.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.59,
"entry_odds": 2.81,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/6",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Real Giulianova",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_team_name": "Real Giulianova",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "atletico-ascoli",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atletico Ascoli",
"away_team_id": 22302,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22302.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atletico Ascoli",
"away_team_public_id": "3oJGlo4mK3bWDd",
"away_team_slug": "atletico-ascoli",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1626207,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Real Giulianova",
"home_team_id": 9516,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9516.webp",
"home_team_name": "Real Giulianova",
"home_team_public_id": "2jjpdrWF0ZBKm2",
"home_team_slug": "real-giulianova",
"ht.home_team_slug": "real-giulianova",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie D - Girone F",
"league_id": 431,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/431.webp",
"league_name": "Serie D - Girone F",
"league_public_id": "0P4KQELS5mXfDq",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:00:00",
"public_id": "5tosdaLFQ7CEIs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4211,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.1737,
"implied_prob": 0.3624,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3624,
"draw": 0.3282,
"home": 0.3095
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3443
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4282,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.167,
"implied_prob": 0.3282,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3624,
"draw": 0.3282,
"home": 0.3095
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3143
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3993,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.3095,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3624,
"draw": 0.3282,
"home": 0.3095
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3395
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0972,
"ev": -0.2332,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": -0.0815,
"ev": -0.2159,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": 0.0808,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2111,
"alpha_yes": 0.2111,
"best_no_odd": 1.86,
"best_yes_odd": 1.81,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0407,
"edge_yes": 0.0407,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1518,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.106,
"ev_yes": -0.0154,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0743,
"implied_no": 0.4967,
"implied_yes": 0.5033,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.106,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4885
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0743,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5115
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4885,
"p_final_yes": 0.5115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2079,
"alpha_under": 0.2287,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.6,
"edge_over": 0.0488,
"edge_under": -0.0488,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0678,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1086,
"implied_over": 0.4332,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4313,
"implied_under": 0.5668,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5687,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4418
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5571
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4418,
"p_final_under": 0.5571,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0808,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0808,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Giulianova at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Giulianova as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Giulianova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Real Giulianova, but the model still strongly favours Real Giulianova.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.046,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3095,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0807,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.3095,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Real Giulianova"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.106,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4885
},
"p_final": 0.5115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0743,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0743,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5115
}
},
"edge": 0.0407,
"ev": -0.0154,
"implied_prob": 0.5033,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.4313,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4418
},
"p_final": 0.4418,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5571
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0488,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1626207,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atletico Ascoli",
"home": "Real Giulianova"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.046,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3095,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0807,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1626207,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T13:00:40.369502+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Real Giulianova & Atletico Ascoli!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie D - Girone F — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vigor Senigallia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Teramo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Città di Foligno | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | L'Aquila | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Ancona | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Santegidiese | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Montecchio Gallo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Recanatese | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Fossombrone | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | San Nicolò | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Lanciano FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Termoli Calcio | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Maceratese | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Angelana | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Pietralunga | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 17 | Real Giulianova | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Sporting Trestina | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teramo | 4 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Vigor Senigallia | 4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | L'Aquila | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 4 | Lanciano FC | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Recanatese | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | Ancona | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Città di Foligno | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | San Nicolò | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Santegidiese | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Atletico Ascoli | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Montecchio Gallo | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 13 | Maceratese | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Angelana | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Real Giulianova | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Termoli Calcio | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Pietralunga | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 18 | Sporting Trestina | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
