AI correctly predicted the Conegliano win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Conegliano Conegliano ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cjarlins Muzane | 30.1% | 55.4% | -25.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 26.8% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Conegliano | 40.4% | 17.8% | +22.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Cjarlins Muzane's win probability at 55.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 25.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Conegliano win 0–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Conegliano higher (65.7% vs model 40.4%, 25.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Conegliano win 0–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cjarlins Muzane 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Conegliano 40.5%
- xG · Cjarlins Muzane 1.19 — Conegliano 1.41
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cjarlins Muzane 1.62 · Draw 3.35 · Conegliano 5.06
- Implied 1X2 · Cjarlins Muzane 55.4% · Draw 26.8% · Conegliano 17.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Cjarlins Muzane 1.62 · Draw 3.35 · Conegliano 5.06
- Implied 1X2 · Cjarlins Muzane 55.4% · Draw 26.8% · Conegliano 17.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Conegliano win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
50/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.62
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Conegliano win · Cjarlins Muzane 0–1 Conegliano
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Cjarlins Muzane and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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{
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{
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"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"home_xg": 1.19,
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "-24.9%"
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{
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},
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},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"raw_pct": -10.4,
"text": "-10.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0652,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10058.68,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0497,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.0,
"text": "+5.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1775,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0497,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.0,
"text": "+5.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0483,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+104.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Conegliano",
"sort_key": 10044.73,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"alert_team": "Conegliano",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 25.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.3,
"hero_label": "Cjarlins Muzane",
"market_prob_pct": 17.8,
"market_team": "Cjarlins Muzane",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Conegliano",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Conegliano), but pricing still diverges by 25.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Conegliano), but pricing still diverges by 25.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010482,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Conegliano at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Conegliano as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Conegliano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Conegliano), but pricing still diverges by 25.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0497,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1775,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19762845849802374,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0483,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+104.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (25 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 25.3,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 25.3,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"steam_team": "Conegliano",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Conegliano), but pricing still diverges by 25.3 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Conegliano), but pricing still diverges by 25.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Conegliano), but pricing still diverges by 25.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010482,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Conegliano at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Conegliano as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Conegliano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Conegliano), but pricing still diverges by 25.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0497,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1775,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19762845849802374,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0483,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+104.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cjarlins Muzane 1.19 xG vs Conegliano 1.41 \u2192 Conegliano 40.4%",
"Market: Cjarlins Muzane ~17.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Conegliano \u2193 -20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Conegliano, but market pricing diverges by 25 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -25.3,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Cjarlins Muzane",
"market_prob": 55.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.63,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.67,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Conegliano",
"market_prob": 17.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.6,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.6,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.59,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.59,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -25.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cjarlins Muzane",
"market_prob_pct": 55.44,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Conegliano"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Cjarlins Muzane\u0027s win probability at 55.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 25.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 25.3,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Conegliano",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 17.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+22.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 22.6,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+22.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 22.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Conegliano \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+22.6 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cjarlins Muzane 1.19 xG vs Conegliano 1.41 \u2192 Conegliano 40.4%",
"Market: Cjarlins Muzane ~17.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Conegliano \u2193 -20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Conegliano, but market pricing diverges by 25 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.3,
"hero_label": "Cjarlins Muzane",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Conegliano odds shortened \u2193 -20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 25.3,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Cjarlins Muzane",
"largest_gap_pp": -25.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Cjarlins Muzane higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 25.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -25.3,
"edge_pp": -25.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cjarlins Muzane",
"market_prob_pct": 55.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.63,
"edge_pp": 2.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.81,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 22.67,
"edge_pp": 22.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Conegliano",
"market_prob_pct": 17.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cjarlins Muzane (17.8%).",
"However, Conegliano has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -20.0%, 4/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Conegliano, Market \u2192 Cjarlins Muzane, Recent sharp money \u2192 Conegliano.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 61.73,
"closing_odds": 1.62,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 61.73,
"entry_odds": 1.62,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Conegliano (20.0%, 4/7) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.25",
"5.62",
"5.00"
],
"display": "7.00 \u2192 4.84 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"pick_team": "Conegliano",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.84"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.25,
5.06,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,17.1 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.25,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Conegliano \u2193 -20.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Conegliano",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Conegliano \u2193 -20.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"open_odds": 6.25,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Conegliano",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"open_odds": 6.25,
"pick_team": "Conegliano",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_team_name": "Conegliano",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 25.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "conegliano",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Conegliano",
"away_team_id": 26508,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/26508.webp",
"away_team_name": "Conegliano",
"away_team_public_id": "0tFjzPSioiBPq7",
"away_team_slug": "conegliano",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1624656,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Cjarlins Muzane",
"home_team_id": 9468,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9468.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cjarlins Muzane",
"home_team_public_id": "3ccvcdI6SbVrGF",
"home_team_slug": "cjarlins-muzane",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cjarlins-muzane",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie D - Girone C",
"league_id": 428,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/428.webp",
"league_name": "Serie D - Girone C",
"league_public_id": "0aWXwRCAzvtm9r",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2Z9gZ4wyh4En5v",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1318,
"best_odd": 5.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0497,
"implied_prob": 0.1775,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1775,
"draw": 0.2681,
"home": 0.5544
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.2075
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2883,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.2681,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1775,
"draw": 0.2681,
"home": 0.5544
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2756
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3721,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0942,
"ev": -0.2545,
"implied_prob": 0.5544,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1775,
"draw": 0.2681,
"home": 0.5544
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.4602
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.06,
"edge": 0.2072,
"ev": 1.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.1976,
"model_prob": 0.4048
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.35,
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.0149,
"implied_prob": 0.2985,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.3161,
"ev": -0.5121,
"implied_prob": 0.6173,
"model_prob": 0.3012
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2088,
"alpha_yes": 0.1898,
"best_no_odd": 1.64,
"best_yes_odd": 2.15,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1059,
"edge_yes": 0.1059,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2489,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1245,
"ev_yes": 0.1653,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0482,
"implied_no": 0.5639,
"implied_yes": 0.4361,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2088,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0218,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.5622,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5404
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4378,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4576
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5404,
"p_final_yes": 0.4576,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2086,
"alpha_under": 0.2294,
"best_over_odd": 2.21,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.105,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": 0.046,
"edge_under": -0.046,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0652,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0664,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1057,
"implied_over": 0.436,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4334,
"implied_under": 0.564,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5666,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2086,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4334,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4435
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.5666,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5555
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4435,
"p_final_under": 0.5555,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1653,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0482,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1653,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 5.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Conegliano), but pricing still diverges by 25.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010482,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Conegliano at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Conegliano as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Conegliano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Conegliano), but pricing still diverges by 25.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0497,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1775,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19762845849802374,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0483,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+104.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0497,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1775,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Conegliano"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0198,
"market_prob": 0.4378,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2088,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0218,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.5622,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5404
},
"p_final": 0.4576,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0482,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4378,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4576
}
},
"edge": 0.1059,
"ev": 0.1653,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4361,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2086,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0101,
"market_prob": 0.4334,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2086,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4334,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4435
},
"p_final": 0.4435,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0664,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.5666,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5555
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.046,
"ev": 0.0652,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1624656,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1653,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Conegliano",
"home": "Cjarlins Muzane"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.089593,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1653,
"implied_prob": 0.4361,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0497,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1775,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19762845849802374,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0483,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+104.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1624656,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T12:56:50.241851+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Cjarlins Muzane & Conegliano!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie D - Girone C — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clodiense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Cjarlins Muzane | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Campodarsego | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Luparense | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Mestre | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Sandona | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Conegliano | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Virtus Bolzano | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | LME | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Calvi Noale | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Legnago Salus | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | FC Obermais | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Triestina | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Este | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Bassano Virtus | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Schio | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Altavilla | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cjarlins Muzane | 4 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Clodiense | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Campodarsego | 4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 4 | Luparense | 4 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 5 | Mestre | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | Sandona | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Legnago Salus | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Altavilla | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| 9 | Brian Lignano | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | LME | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Triestina | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | FC Obermais | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Virtus Bolzano | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Este | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Calvi Noale | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Bassano Virtus | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Conegliano | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Schio | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
