Kiểm toán dự đoán: Al Shabab vs Kazma Dự đoán, tỷ lệ cược & mẹo cá cược AI

Sep 06, 2026 - 17:50
2 1.14
3 1.46
xG Accuracy: 52%

AI correctly predicted the Kazma win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Cấp dự đoán B-

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
  • 1X2 Kazma Kazma ✔ Chính xác
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-3 ✖ Không đúng

Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kazma higher than the statistical model.

Khoảng cách xác suất lớn nhất: Kazma -14.3 pp

kết quả Người mẫu Thị trường đóng cửa Sự khác biệt Tín hiệu
Al Shabab 27.9% 17.9% +10.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.2% 24.9% +4.3 pp Aligned
Kazma 42.9% 57.2% -14.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kazma's win probability at 57.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Kazma win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kazma than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kazma higher (57.2% vs model 42.9%, 14.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kazma win 2–3).

Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay

Dòng thời gian dự đoán

Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:49 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al Shabab 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Kazma 42.9%
    • xG · Al Shabab 1.14 — Kazma 1.46
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:19 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al Shabab 5.05 · Draw 3.63 · Kazma 1.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Shabab 17.9% · Draw 24.9% · Kazma 57.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:49 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al Shabab 5.05 · Draw 3.63 · Kazma 1.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Shabab 17.9% · Draw 24.9% · Kazma 57.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:50 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kazma win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Ảnh chụp lịch sử

Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.

Phán quyết lịch sử: Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử Monitor
kết quả Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Chứng cớ ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 28/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6165477

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kazma win · Al Shabab 2–3 Kazma
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp

Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến ​​trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.

Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.

Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.

View technical JSON
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        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "ev": -0.2028,
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    ],
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      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "1/6",
        "alert_breadth_note": "1/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +5.3%",
        "alert_team": "Al Shabab",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 14.3,
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        "hero_edge_pp": -14.34,
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        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 15,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "market_disagree",
            "read_min": 5,
            "title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
            "url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 14.3,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma)."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "no_bet",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 14.3,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma)."
          },
          "alignment_key": "agree",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.0276,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.4093,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
          "decision_strength": 4.7,
          "decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
          "decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
          "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
          "execution_confidence": 45,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "No Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": false,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kazma at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.2%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Kazma as the value side (42.9%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 14.3,
          "gates_failed": [
            "Reliability below 65"
          ],
          "has_top_pick": false,
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Kazma",
          "no_primary_reasons": {
            "all_triggered": [
              "market_quality",
              "edge_low"
            ],
            "calibration_mode": null,
            "codes": [
              "market_quality",
              "edge_low"
            ],
            "label": "Reason",
            "other_factors": [
              {
                "code": "edge_low",
                "detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
                "name": "Edge Below Threshold",
                "short": "Edge Below Threshold",
                "tone": "neutral"
              }
            ],
            "other_label": "Other factors",
            "primary": {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "secondary": {
              "code": "edge_low",
              "detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
              "name": "Edge Below Threshold",
              "short": "Edge Below Threshold",
              "tone": "neutral"
            },
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "outlier_detected": true,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Kazma \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.05 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1622646 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.05 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "primary_block_explain": {
            "entries": [
              {
                "key": "weak_ev",
                "label": "Consensus EV +2.8% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
                "ok": false
              },
              {
                "key": "gate",
                "label": "Reliability below 65",
                "ok": false
              }
            ],
            "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
            "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
            "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
            "title": "Why not Primary?"
          },
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.8% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "57 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "45 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "+2.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "false"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 4,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": null,
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma).",
            "Decision strength: 4.7/10",
            "Reliability below 65",
            "Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
          ],
          "reliability_score": 57,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Thin consensus value"
          ],
          "subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma).",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "observe",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.2028,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-20.3%",
            "consensus_odds": 1.58,
            "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
            "disagreement_level": "moderate",
            "implied_prob": 0.572,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4288,
            "raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.3225,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 8.1,
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "ok",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 0,
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.32
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "no_bet",
        "books_breadth_display": "1/6",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 68,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 17.8,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 1.7,
            "steam_coherence": 7.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 57,
          "stars": 2,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 14.34,
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "max_gap_pp": 14.34,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.46,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 8.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.14,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.46,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.14 \u00b7 Away xG 1.46 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": true,
        "mv_status": "warning",
        "odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
        "steam_conflicts": false,
        "steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
        "steam_team": "Al Shabab",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 45,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 28,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 42,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 28,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "label": "No Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 14.3,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 14.3,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "moderate",
              "probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.0276,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.4093,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
            "decision_strength": 4.7,
            "decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
            "decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
            "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
            "execution_confidence": 45,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "No Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": false,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kazma at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.2%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Kazma as the value side (42.9%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 14.3,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "has_top_pick": false,
            "headline": "No Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u25cb",
            "label": "No Primary Bet",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Kazma",
            "no_primary_reasons": {
              "all_triggered": [
                "market_quality",
                "edge_low"
              ],
              "calibration_mode": null,
              "codes": [
                "market_quality",
                "edge_low"
              ],
              "label": "Reason",
              "other_factors": [
                {
                  "code": "edge_low",
                  "detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
                  "name": "Edge Below Threshold",
                  "short": "Edge Below Threshold",
                  "tone": "neutral"
                }
              ],
              "other_label": "Other factors",
              "primary": {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "secondary": {
                "code": "edge_low",
                "detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
                "name": "Edge Below Threshold",
                "short": "Edge Below Threshold",
                "tone": "neutral"
              },
              "version": "v1"
            },
            "outlier_detected": true,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Kazma \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.05 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1622646 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.05 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "primary_block_explain": {
              "entries": [
                {
                  "key": "weak_ev",
                  "label": "Consensus EV +2.8% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
                  "ok": false
                },
                {
                  "key": "gate",
                  "label": "Reliability below 65",
                  "ok": false
                }
              ],
              "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
              "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
              "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
              "title": "Why not Primary?"
            },
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.8% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "57 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "45 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "+2.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "false"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 4,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": null,
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma).",
              "Decision strength: 4.7/10",
              "Reliability below 65",
              "Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
            ],
            "reliability_score": 57,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Thin consensus value"
            ],
            "subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma).",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "observe",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.2028,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-20.3%",
              "consensus_odds": 1.58,
              "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
              "disagreement_level": "moderate",
              "implied_prob": 0.572,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4288,
              "raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.3225,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 8.1,
              "reasons": [],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "ok",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 0,
                "strength_delta": 0.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.32
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma).",
          "tier": "observe"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Al Shabab 1.14 xG vs Kazma 1.46 \u2192 Kazma 42.9%",
            "Market: Kazma ~57.2% implied",
            "Market Drift: Al Shabab odds \u2191 +5.3%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Kazma with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 10.03,
          "fair_prob": 27.93,
          "label": "Al Shabab",
          "market_prob": 17.9,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.3,
          "fair_prob": 29.2,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 24.9,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -14.34,
          "fair_prob": 42.86,
          "label": "Kazma",
          "market_prob": 57.2,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.07,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 50.27,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.07,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 49.73,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.67,
          "fair_prob": 53.8,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 49.13,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.67,
          "fair_prob": 46.2,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 50.87,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -14.34,
        "fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Kazma",
        "market_prob_pct": 57.2,
        "status": "strong_market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Al Shabab"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Kazma\u0027s win probability at 57.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 14.34,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Kazma",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 57.2,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": -14.3,
          "model_prob_pct": 42.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": -14.3,
            "label": "Moderate",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_score": 57,
          "reliability_tier": "limited",
          "summary": "Kazma \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 45,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 28,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 42,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 28,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "no_bet",
              "label": "No Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Al Shabab 1.14 xG vs Kazma 1.46 \u2192 Kazma 42.9%",
              "Market: Kazma ~57.2% implied",
              "Market Drift: Al Shabab odds \u2191 +5.3%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Kazma with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -14.34,
        "hero_label": "Kazma",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Al Shabab odds lengthened \u2191 +5.3%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Al Shabab has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Kazma than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Kazma than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, Al Shabab has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Kazma more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Al Shabab has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (1/6), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 14.34,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 42.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 42.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "strong",
          "largest_gap_label": "Kazma",
          "largest_gap_pp": -14.3,
          "lead": "The closing market prices Kazma higher than the statistical model.",
          "level": "strong",
          "max_gap_pp": 14.3,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 10.03,
            "edge_pp": 10.03,
            "fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Al Shabab",
            "market_prob_pct": 17.9,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "model_edge",
            "signal_label": "Model Edge"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 4.3,
            "edge_pp": 4.3,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 24.9,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -14.34,
            "edge_pp": -14.34,
            "fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Kazma",
            "market_prob_pct": 57.2,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Kazma (57.2%).",
          "Al Shabab odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.3%, 1/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
          "Kazma \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 63.29,
        "closing_odds": 1.58,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 63.29,
        "entry_odds": 1.58,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 1,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.3
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 6,
        "breadth_display": "1/6",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 5.0,
        "is_drift": true,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
        "move_pct_abs": 5.3,
        "move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
        "move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 50m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on Al Shabab (swing 5.58 \u2192 4.33 \u2192 5.00) \u2014 net 5.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "5.05",
            "4.90",
            "4.75"
          ],
          "display": "5.58 \u2192 4.33 \u2192 5.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
          "move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 50m",
          "pick_team": "Al Shabab",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "5.58"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "4.33"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "5.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            4.75,
            5.05,
            5.0
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.75"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "4.75"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "5.05"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "5.00"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 4.75,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Al Shabab",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 5.0,
          "is_drift": true,
          "label": "Market Signal",
          "move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
          "open_odds": 4.75,
          "summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
          "team": "Al Shabab",
          "tone": "with"
        },
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 15,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "1/6",
        "current_odds": 5.0,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
        "open_odds": 4.75,
        "pick_team": "Al Shabab",
        "steam_score": 15,
        "steam_team_name": "Al Shabab",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 14.3,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Kazma",
      "away_team_id": 3540,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3540.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Kazma",
      "away_team_public_id": "27WB3lQIxfLzKx",
      "away_team_slug": "kazma",
      "country_code": "KW",
      "country_display_name": "Kuwait",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/kw.svg",
      "country_id": 87,
      "country_name": "Kuwait",
      "fixture_id": 1622646,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Kuwait",
      "home_team_display_name": "Al Shabab",
      "home_team_id": 3541,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3541.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Al Shabab",
      "home_team_public_id": "1KazOZ2e6WbN6Q",
      "home_team_slug": "al-shabab-3541",
      "league_country": "Kuwait",
      "league_country_display": "Kuwait",
      "league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Kuwait",
      "league_id": 330,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/330.webp",
      "league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Kuwait",
      "league_public_id": "1PNUOoxLIHuKfL",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-06 17:50:00",
      "public_id": "4u9Li7h8mqlAIS",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4711,
            "best_odd": 1.58,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0675,
            "ev": -0.2028,
            "implied_prob": 0.572,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.572,
              "draw": 0.249,
              "home": 0.179
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4288,
            "p_final": 0.5046
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2806,
            "best_odd": 3.63,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0121,
            "ev": -0.0522,
            "implied_prob": 0.249,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.572,
              "draw": 0.249,
              "home": 0.179
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2921,
            "p_final": 0.2611
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.17,
            "best_odd": 5.05,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.017,
            "ev": -0.0103,
            "implied_prob": 0.179,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.572,
              "draw": 0.249,
              "home": 0.179
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2791,
            "p_final": 0.196
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 1.58,
            "edge": -0.2041,
            "ev": -0.3225,
            "implied_prob": 0.6329,
            "model_prob": 0.4288
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.63,
            "edge": 0.0166,
            "ev": 0.0604,
            "implied_prob": 0.2755,
            "model_prob": 0.2921
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 5.05,
            "edge": 0.0811,
            "ev": 0.4093,
            "implied_prob": 0.198,
            "model_prob": 0.2791
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.2306,
          "alpha_yes": 0.2096,
          "best_no_odd": 1.82,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.91,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": -0.0467,
          "edge_yes": 0.0467,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1592,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1078,
          "ev_yes": 0.0276,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0713,
          "implied_no": 0.5087,
          "implied_yes": 0.4913,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 4,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2306,
              "best_odd": 1.795,
              "edge": -0.0105,
              "ev": -0.1078,
              "implied_prob": 0.5075,
              "model_prob": 0.462,
              "p_final": 0.497
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2096,
              "best_odd": 1.85,
              "edge": 0.0095,
              "ev": -0.0713,
              "implied_prob": 0.4925,
              "model_prob": 0.538,
              "p_final": 0.502
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "p_final_no": 0.497,
          "p_final_yes": 0.502,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.2171,
          "alpha_under": 0.2171,
          "best_over_odd": 1.95,
          "best_under_odd": 1.92,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.82,
          "consensus_under_odd": 1.86,
          "edge_over": -0.0207,
          "edge_under": 0.0207,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0601,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0894,
          "ev_under": -0.0054,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0706,
          "implied_over": 0.5027,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.5054,
          "implied_under": 0.4973,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.4946,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.2171,
              "best_odd": 1.82,
              "edge": -0.0051,
              "ev": -0.0894,
              "implied_prob": 0.5054,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.5003
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2171,
              "best_odd": 1.86,
              "edge": 0.0051,
              "ev": -0.0706,
              "implied_prob": 0.4946,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.4997
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.5003,
          "p_final_under": 0.4997,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "avoid",
        "code": "no_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "stake_mult": 0.0,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "no_bet",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.0276,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.4093,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0276,
      "confidence": 4.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Thin consensus value"
        ],
        "score": 4.7,
        "score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Thin consensus value"
        ],
        "score": 4.7,
        "score_pre_penalty": 4.7
      },
      "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "no_bet",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "no_bet",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 14.3,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.0276,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.4093,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
        "decision_strength": 4.7,
        "decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
        "decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
        "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
        "execution_confidence": 45,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "No Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": false,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kazma at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.2%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Kazma as the value side (42.9%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 14.3,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "has_top_pick": false,
        "headline": "No Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u25cb",
        "label": "No Primary Bet",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Kazma",
        "no_primary_reasons": {
          "all_triggered": [
            "market_quality",
            "edge_low"
          ],
          "calibration_mode": null,
          "codes": [
            "market_quality",
            "edge_low"
          ],
          "label": "Reason",
          "other_factors": [
            {
              "code": "edge_low",
              "detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
              "name": "Edge Below Threshold",
              "short": "Edge Below Threshold",
              "tone": "neutral"
            }
          ],
          "other_label": "Other factors",
          "primary": {
            "code": "market_quality",
            "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
            "name": "Market Quality Risk",
            "short": "Market Quality Risk",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "secondary": {
            "code": "edge_low",
            "detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
            "name": "Edge Below Threshold",
            "short": "Edge Below Threshold",
            "tone": "neutral"
          },
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "outlier_detected": true,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Kazma \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.05 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1622646 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.05 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "primary_block_explain": {
          "entries": [
            {
              "key": "weak_ev",
              "label": "Consensus EV +2.8% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
              "ok": false
            },
            {
              "key": "gate",
              "label": "Reliability below 65",
              "ok": false
            }
          ],
          "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
          "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
          "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
          "title": "Why not Primary?"
        },
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.8% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "57 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "45 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "+2.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "false"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 4,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": null,
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma).",
          "Decision strength: 4.7/10",
          "Reliability below 65",
          "Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
        ],
        "reliability_score": 57,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Thin consensus value"
        ],
        "subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kazma).",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "observe",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.2028,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-20.3%",
          "consensus_odds": 1.58,
          "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
          "disagreement_level": "moderate",
          "implied_prob": 0.572,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4288,
          "raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.3225,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 8.1,
          "reasons": [],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "ok",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 0,
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.32
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
          "draw_prob": 0.2921,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4288,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.32
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0276,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.4913,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.538,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 1.58,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0675,
          "ev": -0.2028,
          "implied_prob": 0.572,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4288,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Kazma"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.2096,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.85,
            "edge": 0.0095,
            "market_prob": 0.4925,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.538,
            "n_bookmakers": 4,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2306,
              "best_odd": 1.795,
              "edge": -0.0105,
              "ev": -0.1078,
              "implied_prob": 0.5075,
              "model_prob": 0.462,
              "p_final": 0.497
            },
            "p_final": 0.502,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0713,
            "value_side": "yes",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2096,
              "best_odd": 1.85,
              "edge": 0.0095,
              "ev": -0.0713,
              "implied_prob": 0.4925,
              "model_prob": 0.538,
              "p_final": 0.502
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0467,
          "ev": 0.0276,
          "implied_prob": 0.4913,
          "model_prob": 0.538,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.2171,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.86,
            "edge": 0.0051,
            "market_prob": 0.4946,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.2171,
              "best_odd": 1.82,
              "edge": -0.0051,
              "ev": -0.0894,
              "implied_prob": 0.5054,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.5003
            },
            "p_final": 0.4997,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0706,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2171,
              "best_odd": 1.86,
              "edge": 0.0051,
              "ev": -0.0706,
              "implied_prob": 0.4946,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.4997
            },
            "value_side": "under"
          },
          "edge": 0.0207,
          "ev": -0.0054,
          "implied_prob": 0.4973,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1622646,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0276,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.4288,
        "draw": 0.2921,
        "home": 0.2791
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "show_betting_primary_label": false,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Kazma",
        "home": "Al Shabab"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.2028,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-20.3%",
        "consensus_odds": 1.58,
        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "implied_prob": 0.572,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4288,
        "raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.3225,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1622646,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T17:49:05.964373+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Al Shabab & Kazma!

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Giải Ngoại hạng Kuwait Giải Ngoại hạng Kuwait — Bảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 Kazma 3 2 1 0 7
2 Al Kuwait 3 2 1 0 7
3 Al Qadsia 3 2 0 1 6
4 Al Salmiyah 3 2 0 1 6
5 Al Nasar 3 2 0 1 6
6 Al Shabab 3 1 1 1 4
7 Al Sahel 3 1 1 1 4
8 Al Fahaheel 3 1 0 2 3
9 Al Jahra 3 1 0 2 3
10 Al Arabi Kuwait 3 0 2 1 2
11 Al Sulaibikhat 3 0 2 1 2
12 Al Tadhamon 3 0 0 3 0
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 Al Arabi Kuwait 3 7 8 -1 2
2 Kazma 3 6 3 +3 7
3 Al Fahaheel 3 6 5 +1 3
4 Al Shabab 3 6 6 0 4
5 Al Qadsia 3 5 2 +3 6
6 Al Kuwait 3 5 3 +2 7
7 Al Salmiyah 3 4 2 +2 6
8 Al Nasar 3 4 5 -1 6
9 Al Jahra 3 4 5 -1 3
10 Al Sulaibikhat 3 4 5 -1 2
11 Al Tadhamon 3 2 9 -7 0
12 Al Sahel 3 1 1 0 4