AI correctly predicted the Platges Calvià win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
B-
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Platges Calvià Platges Calvià ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binissalem | 34.7% | 31.7% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 33.1% | -3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Platges Calvià | 35.6% | 35.2% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Platges Calvià win 0–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Platges Calvià win 0–3).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Binissalem 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Platges Calvià 35.6%
- xG · Binissalem 1.29 — Platges Calvià 1.31
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Binissalem 2.86 · Draw 2.74 · Platges Calvià 2.57
- Implied 1X2 · Binissalem 31.7% · Draw 33.1% · Platges Calvià 35.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Binissalem 2.86 · Draw 2.74 · Platges Calvià 2.57
- Implied 1X2 · Binissalem 31.7% · Draw 33.1% · Platges Calvià 35.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Platges Calvià win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
82/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Platges Calvià win · Binissalem 0–3 Platges Calvià
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0901,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.0853,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"sort_key": 1785.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"alert_team": "Binissalem",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.42,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.2,
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"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 3.4,
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"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Platges Calvi\u00e0)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Platges Calvi\u00e0)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2436,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2436,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Platges Calvi\u00e0 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Platges Calvi\u00e0 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Platges Calvi\u00e0).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0901,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0853,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.42,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.42,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"steam_team": "Binissalem",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Platges Calvi\u00e0).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Platges Calvi\u00e0)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Platges Calvi\u00e0)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2436,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2436,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Platges Calvi\u00e0 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Platges Calvi\u00e0 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Platges Calvi\u00e0).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0901,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0853,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Binissalem 1.29 xG vs Platges Calvi\u00e0 1.31 \u2192 Platges Calvi\u00e0 35.6%",
"Market: Platges Calvi\u00e0 ~35.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Binissalem odds \u2191 +5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Platges Calvi\u00e0 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.02,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Binissalem",
"market_prob": 31.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.42,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"market_prob": 35.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.31,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.31,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.28,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.28,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.07,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Binissalem"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.42,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Platges Calvi\u00e0 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Binissalem 1.29 xG vs Platges Calvi\u00e0 1.31 \u2192 Platges Calvi\u00e0 35.6%",
"Market: Platges Calvi\u00e0 ~35.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Binissalem odds \u2191 +5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Platges Calvi\u00e0 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.42,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Binissalem odds lengthened \u2191 +5.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Binissalem has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Binissalem \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Binissalem has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Binissalem \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Binissalem has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.42,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.02,
"edge_pp": 3.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Binissalem",
"market_prob_pct": 31.68,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.42,
"edge_pp": -3.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.07,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.39,
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"market_prob_pct": 35.25,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Binissalem \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Platges Calvi\u00e0 (35.2%).",
"Binissalem odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.9%, 4/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Platges Calvi\u00e0 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.5,
"closing_odds": 2.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.5,
"entry_odds": 2.74,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Binissalem (5.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.86",
"2.71",
"2.55"
],
"display": "2.90 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Binissalem",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.55,
2.86,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.55,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Binissalem",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Binissalem",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Binissalem",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Binissalem",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "platges-calvia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"away_team_id": 9785,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9785.webp",
"away_team_name": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"away_team_public_id": "3vLPiMKzdgEtA3",
"away_team_slug": "platges-calvia",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1615782,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Binissalem",
"home_team_id": 9774,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9774.webp",
"home_team_name": "Binissalem",
"home_team_public_id": "2iiFXyPFumop7X",
"home_team_slug": "binissalem",
"ht.home_team_slug": "binissalem",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 11",
"league_id": 449,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/449.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 11",
"league_public_id": "2ruU4GT1QLEKA0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 17:30:00",
"public_id": "0VhRrPuffuhvjX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4477,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.0901,
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3525,
"draw": 0.3307,
"home": 0.3168
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3541
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4271,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1336,
"implied_prob": 0.3307,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3525,
"draw": 0.3307,
"home": 0.3168
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3162
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4294,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.3168,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3525,
"draw": 0.3307,
"home": 0.3168
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3299
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": -0.0332,
"ev": -0.0853,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": -0.0682,
"ev": -0.1868,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": -0.0024,
"ev": -0.0068,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.212,
"alpha_yes": 0.1927,
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.05,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0928,
"edge_yes": 0.0928,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2265,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.117,
"ev_yes": 0.1173,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0456,
"implied_no": 0.5478,
"implied_yes": 0.4522,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.117,
"implied_prob": 0.5506,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5303
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1927,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.0456,
"implied_prob": 0.4494,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4678
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5303,
"p_final_yes": 0.4678,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1483,
"alpha_under": 0.2039,
"best_over_odd": 2.58,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.51,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1131,
"edge_under": -0.1131,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2436,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0412,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1194,
"implied_over": 0.3689,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3646,
"implied_under": 0.6311,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6354,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.382
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.6354,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6115
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.382,
"p_final_under": 0.6115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2436,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2436,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2436,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Platges Calvi\u00e0)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2436,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2436,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Platges Calvi\u00e0 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Platges Calvi\u00e0 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Platges Calvi\u00e0).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0901,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0853,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.0901,
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Platges Calvi\u00e0"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1927,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0184,
"market_prob": 0.4494,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.117,
"implied_prob": 0.5506,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5303
},
"p_final": 0.4678,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0456,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1927,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.0456,
"implied_prob": 0.4494,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4678
}
},
"edge": 0.0928,
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4522,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0174,
"market_prob": 0.3646,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.382
},
"p_final": 0.382,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0412,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.6354,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6115
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1131,
"ev": 0.2436,
"implied_prob": 0.3689,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1615782,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2436,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4522,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4522,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Platges Calvi\u00e0",
"home": "Binissalem"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.082191,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2436,
"implied_prob": 0.3689,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0901,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0853,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1615782,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T17:30:29.787675+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Binissalem & Platges Calvià!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Tercera División RFEF - Nhóm 11 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Manacor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Porreres | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Constància | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | PE Sant Jordi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Llosetense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Cardassar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Alcúdia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Platges Calvià | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Santanyí | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Formentera | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Andratx | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Arenal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Sineu | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Binissalem | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Migjorn | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manacor | 3 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Alcúdia | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 | PE Sant Jordi | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Porreres | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | Constància | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Platges Calvià | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Llosetense | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Mercadal | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Cardassar | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 11 | Formentera | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 12 | Santanyí | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 | Arenal | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Andratx | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Sineu | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Binissalem | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 17 | Migjorn | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
