AI correctly predicted the Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập | 44.5% | 55.6% | -11.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 38.2% | 28.4% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Ghazl El Mehalla | 17.2% | 16.0% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập's win probability at 55.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.5%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập attacking xG significantly stronger (0.98 vs 0.51)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập higher (55.5% vs model 44.5%, 11.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập win 3–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập 44.5% · Draw 38.2% · Ghazl El Mehalla 17.3%
- xG · Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập 0.98 — Ghazl El Mehalla 0.51
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập 1.71 · Draw 3.34 · Ghazl El Mehalla 5.94
- Implied 1X2 · Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập 55.6% · Draw 28.4% · Ghazl El Mehalla 16.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập 1.71 · Draw 3.34 · Ghazl El Mehalla 5.94
- Implied 1X2 · Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập 55.6% · Draw 28.4% · Ghazl El Mehalla 16.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
44/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.71
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập win · Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập 3–1 Ghazl El Mehalla
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2814,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2814,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp at 44.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp as the value side (44.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1445,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4451,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5847953216374269,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2389,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -27.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.47"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.47
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "11/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.02,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.02,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.51,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -27.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.98,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 0.98,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.98 \u00b7 Away xG 0.51 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -27%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2814,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2814,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp at 44.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp as the value side (44.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1445,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4451,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5847953216374269,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2389,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -27.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.47"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.47
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp 0.98 xG vs Ghazl El Mehalla 0.51 \u2192 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp 44.5%",
"Market: Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp ~55.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp projects stronger on expected goals (+0.47 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.02,
"fair_prob": 44.54,
"label": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"market_prob": 55.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.77,
"fair_prob": 38.22,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.25,
"fair_prob": 17.24,
"label": "Ghazl El Mehalla",
"market_prob": 15.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.82,
"fair_prob": 18.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.82,
"fair_prob": 81.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.85,
"fair_prob": 26.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.85,
"fair_prob": 73.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"market_prob_pct": 55.56,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp\u0027s win probability at 55.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 44.5%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.02,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 55.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.1,
"model_prob_pct": 44.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp 0.98 xG vs Ghazl El Mehalla 0.51 \u2192 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp 44.5%",
"Market: Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp ~55.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp projects stronger on expected goals (+0.47 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.02,
"hero_label": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp (pricing gap 11.0 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.02,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.3 pp (at 44.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.3,
"max_prob_pct": 44.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.02,
"edge_pp": -11.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"market_prob_pct": 55.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.77,
"edge_pp": 9.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.22,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.25,
"edge_pp": 1.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ghazl El Mehalla",
"market_prob_pct": 15.99,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp (55.6%).",
"Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.48,
"closing_odds": 1.71,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.48,
"entry_odds": 1.71,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 1.7,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.7,
"pick_team": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ghazl-el-mehalla",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ghazl El Mehalla",
"away_team_id": 13819,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13819.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ghazl El Mehalla",
"away_team_public_id": "4CHtOGzIzmCBVh",
"away_team_slug": "ghazl-el-mehalla",
"country_code": "EG",
"country_display_name": "Egypt",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
"country_id": 47,
"country_name": "Egypt",
"fixture_id": 1612231,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Egypt",
"home_team_display_name": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"home_team_id": 15570,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15570.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"home_team_public_id": "3KLuU2ARk0nkIz",
"home_team_slug": "national-bank-of-egypt",
"ht.home_team_slug": "national-bank-of-egypt",
"league_country": "Egypt",
"league_country_display": "Egypt",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i H\u1ea1ng Ai C\u1eadp",
"league_id": 233,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/233.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i H\u1ea1ng Ai C\u1eadp",
"league_public_id": "5BSRqT0INOx7NZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-07 17:00:00",
"public_id": "4oxLALULG1A2nl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1962,
"best_odd": 5.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0025,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.1599,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1599,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.5556
},
"model_prob": 0.1727,
"p_final": 0.1624
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.256,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.2845,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1599,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.5556
},
"model_prob": 0.3822,
"p_final": 0.3095
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5005,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0553,
"ev": -0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1599,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.5556
},
"model_prob": 0.4451,
"p_final": 0.5003
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.94,
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": 0.0256,
"implied_prob": 0.1684,
"model_prob": 0.1727
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0828,
"ev": 0.2767,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.3822
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.1397,
"ev": -0.2389,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.4451
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.46,
"alpha_yes": 0.4182,
"best_no_odd": 1.65,
"best_yes_odd": 2.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1585,
"edge_yes": -0.1585,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2144,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0385,
"ev_yes": -0.3928,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.2257,
"implied_no": 0.5775,
"implied_yes": 0.4225,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.46,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": 0.074,
"ev": 0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.575,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"p_final": 0.6491
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4182,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": -0.0673,
"ev": -0.2257,
"implied_prob": 0.425,
"model_prob": 0.264,
"p_final": 0.3577
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.6491,
"p_final_yes": 0.3577,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3041,
"alpha_under": 0.4182,
"best_over_odd": 2.45,
"best_under_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.54,
"edge_over": -0.2082,
"edge_under": 0.2082,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.537,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.2175,
"ev_under": 0.2814,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0636,
"implied_over": 0.3972,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3959,
"implied_under": 0.6028,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6041,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3041,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0629,
"ev": -0.2175,
"implied_prob": 0.3959,
"model_prob": 0.189,
"p_final": 0.333
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4182,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0865,
"ev": 0.0636,
"implied_prob": 0.6041,
"model_prob": 0.811,
"p_final": 0.6906
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.333,
"p_final_under": 0.6906,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.49,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2814,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2814,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2814,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2814,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2814,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp at 44.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp as the value side (44.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1445,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4451,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5847953216374269,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2389,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -27.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.47"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.47
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.264,
"draw_prob": 0.3822,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4451,
"over_prob": 0.189,
"total_xg": 1.49,
"under_prob": 0.811,
"xg_diff": 0.47
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0553,
"ev": -0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4451,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.46,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"edge": 0.074,
"market_prob": 0.575,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.736,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.46,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": 0.074,
"ev": 0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.575,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"p_final": 0.6491
},
"p_final": 0.6491,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0385,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4182,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": -0.0673,
"ev": -0.2257,
"implied_prob": 0.425,
"model_prob": 0.264,
"p_final": 0.3577
}
},
"edge": 0.1585,
"ev": 0.2144,
"implied_prob": 0.5775,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4182,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0865,
"market_prob": 0.6041,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.811,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3041,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0629,
"ev": -0.2175,
"implied_prob": 0.3959,
"model_prob": 0.189,
"p_final": 0.333
},
"p_final": 0.6906,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0636,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4182,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0865,
"ev": 0.0636,
"implied_prob": 0.6041,
"model_prob": 0.811,
"p_final": 0.6906
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2082,
"ev": 0.2814,
"implied_prob": 0.6028,
"model_prob": 0.811,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1612231,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2814,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1727,
"draw": 0.3822,
"home": 0.4451
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2144,
"implied_prob": 0.5775,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.736,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2144,
"implied_prob": 0.5775,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.736,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ghazl El Mehalla",
"home": "Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Qu\u1ed1c gia Ai C\u1eadp"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.29668,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2814,
"implied_prob": 0.6028,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.811,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1445,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4451,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5847953216374269,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2389,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612231,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T17:00:44.876059+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập & Ghazl El Mehalla!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Ngoại Hạng Ai Cập — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Al Ahly | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Future FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Petrojet | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | El Geish | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Masr | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Al Masry | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Enppi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Smouha SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Pyramids FC | 5 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 15 |
| 3 | Al Ahly | 5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 | Petrojet | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Future FC | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Enppi | 5 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | El Geish | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Al Masry | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Masr | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Smouha SC | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 3 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 5 | 4.7 | 1.0 | +3.7 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Masry | 5 | 4.8 | 2.7 | +2.1 | 6 |
| 3 | Petrojet | 5 | 5.3 | 3.7 | +1.6 | 7 |
| 4 | Ngân hàng Quốc gia Ai Cập | 5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | +1.6 | 6 |
| 5 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5 | 5.5 | 4.1 | +1.4 | 12 |
| 6 | Al Ahly | 5 | 4.2 | 3.0 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 7 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | +0.3 | 5 |
| 8 | Smouha SC | 5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | +0.3 | 4 |
| 9 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | +0.2 | 2 |
| 10 | Future FC | 5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | +0.1 | 10 |
| 11 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | +0.1 | 10 |
| 12 | El Geish | 5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | -0.1 | 7 |
| 13 | Masr | 5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | -0.5 | 7 |
| 14 | Enppi | 5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 4 |
| 15 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | -0.8 | 3 |
| 16 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 3.4 | 4.4 | -1.0 | 7 |
| 17 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 3.2 | 4.9 | -1.7 | 2 |
| 18 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 2.4 | 4.5 | -2.1 | 6 |
| 19 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 2.6 | 5.0 | -2.4 | 13 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 1.9 | 5.0 | -3.1 | 1 |
