The model missed the final outcome (Huracán Dự bị win 0–2).
The model had projected San Lorenzo Reserves at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 San Lorenzo Reserves Huracán Dự bị ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo Reserves | 36.6% | 40.8% | -4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.2% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Huracán Dự bị | 33.8% | 28.1% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Huracán Dự bị's win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.1%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Huracán Dự bị win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Huracán Dự bị.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on San Lorenzo Reserves by 5.7 percentage points (30.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Lorenzo Reserves 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Huracán Dự bị 33.8%
- xG · San Lorenzo Reserves 1.33 — Huracán Dự bị 1.27
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Lorenzo Reserves 2.25 · Draw 2.94 · Huracán Dự bị 3.27
- Implied 1X2 · San Lorenzo Reserves 40.8% · Draw 31.2% · Huracán Dự bị 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · San Lorenzo Reserves 2.25 · Draw 2.94 · Huracán Dự bị 3.27
- Implied 1X2 · San Lorenzo Reserves 40.8% · Draw 31.2% · Huracán Dự bị 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Huracán Dự bị win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
71/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.27
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Huracán Dự bị win · San Lorenzo Reserves 0–2 Huracán Dự bị
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"pick": "Yes",
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},
"double_chance": {
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{
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 17:31:26",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.0,
"text": "+9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.09,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10081.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1224,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.2,
"text": "-12.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0317,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"sort_key": 1792.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.72,
"hero_label": "Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 40.8,
"market_team": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Lorenzo Reserves)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Lorenzo Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Lorenzo Reserves at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Lorenzo Reserves as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Lorenzo Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1224,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.72,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.72,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Lorenzo Reserves).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Lorenzo Reserves)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Lorenzo Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Lorenzo Reserves at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Lorenzo Reserves as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Lorenzo Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1224,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Lorenzo Reserves 1.33 xG vs Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.27 \u2192 San Lorenzo Reserves 36.6%",
"Market: San Lorenzo Reserves ~40.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Lorenzo Reserves with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.17,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"market_prob": 40.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.55,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.72,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob": 28.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.07,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.07,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.28,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.28,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 28.05,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb\u0027s win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.1%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.72,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "San Lorenzo Reserves \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Lorenzo Reserves 1.33 xG vs Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.27 \u2192 San Lorenzo Reserves 36.6%",
"Market: San Lorenzo Reserves ~40.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Lorenzo Reserves with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.72,
"hero_label": "Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +2.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.72,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.7,
"lead": "The model rates Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.17,
"edge_pp": -4.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 40.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.55,
"edge_pp": -1.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.19,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.72,
"edge_pp": 5.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 28.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers San Lorenzo Reserves (40.8%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.9%, 1/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"San Lorenzo Reserves \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.58,
"closing_odds": 3.27,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.58,
"entry_odds": 3.27,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.50 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 3.50) \u2014 net 2.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.22",
"2.94"
],
"display": "3.50 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
2.94,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.2 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.94"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "huracan-res",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"away_team_id": 18688,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18688.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"away_team_public_id": "3wp9KL255SSDvz",
"away_team_slug": "huracan-res",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612051,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"home_team_id": 18697,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18697.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"home_team_public_id": "1WhIjAEn09Lgx8",
"home_team_slug": "san-lorenzo-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "san-lorenzo-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Reserve League Argentina",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Reserve League Argentina",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 18:00:00",
"public_id": "2uIAVXRK7mG558",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2743,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.2805,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2805,
"draw": 0.3119,
"home": 0.4076
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2961
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4396,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0068,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.3119,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2805,
"draw": 0.3119,
"home": 0.4076
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3051
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4219,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.1224,
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2805,
"draw": 0.3119,
"home": 0.4076
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.39
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": 0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.0437,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0785,
"ev": -0.1765,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2161,
"alpha_yes": 0.1964,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0828,
"edge_yes": 0.0828,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1216,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0579,
"implied_no": 0.5378,
"implied_yes": 0.4622,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2161,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.1216,
"implied_prob": 0.5396,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5213
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1964,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.4604,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.477
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5213,
"p_final_yes": 0.477,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1544,
"alpha_under": 0.2123,
"best_over_odd": 2.45,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.365,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.495,
"edge_over": 0.0907,
"edge_under": -0.0907,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1809,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0494,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1141,
"implied_over": 0.3913,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3873,
"implied_under": 0.6087,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6127,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1544,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0494,
"implied_prob": 0.3873,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4019
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.6127,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5926
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4019,
"p_final_under": 0.5926,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1809,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Lorenzo Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Lorenzo Reserves at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Lorenzo Reserves as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Lorenzo Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1224,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.1224,
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "San Lorenzo Reserves"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1964,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0166,
"market_prob": 0.4604,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2161,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.1216,
"implied_prob": 0.5396,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5213
},
"p_final": 0.477,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0579,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1964,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.4604,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.477
}
},
"edge": 0.0828,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4622,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1544,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0146,
"market_prob": 0.3873,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1544,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0494,
"implied_prob": 0.3873,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4019
},
"p_final": 0.4019,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0494,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.6127,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5926
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0907,
"ev": 0.1809,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612051,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1809,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4622,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4622,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hurac\u00e1n D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"home": "San Lorenzo Reserves"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.061036,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1809,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1224,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612051,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T18:01:31.847019+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Reserve League Argentina — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Dự bị | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Dự bị | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Dự bị | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Dự bị | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Dự bị | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Dự bị | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Dự bị | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Dự bị | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Dự bị | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Dự bị | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Dự bị | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Dự bị | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Dự bị | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Dự bị | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Dự bị | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Dự bị | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Dự bị | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Dự bị | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Dự bị | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Dự bị | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Dự bị | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Dự bị | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Dự bị | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Dự bị | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
