AI correctly predicted the Godoy Cruz Dự bị win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
B-
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Godoy Cruz Dự bị Godoy Cruz Dự bị ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz Dự bị | 37.1% | 45.5% | -8.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.7% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
| Banfield Dự bị | 33.3% | 29.7% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Godoy Cruz Dự bị's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Godoy Cruz Dự bị win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Godoy Cruz Dự bị. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Godoy Cruz Dự bị higher (45.6% vs model 37.1%, 8.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Godoy Cruz Dự bị win 3–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Godoy Cruz Dự bị 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Banfield Dự bị 33.4%
- xG · Godoy Cruz Dự bị 1.34 — Banfield Dự bị 1.26
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Godoy Cruz Dự bị 2.01 · Draw 3.70 · Banfield Dự bị 3.08
- Implied 1X2 · Godoy Cruz Dự bị 45.5% · Draw 24.7% · Banfield Dự bị 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Godoy Cruz Dự bị 2.01 · Draw 3.70 · Banfield Dự bị 3.08
- Implied 1X2 · Godoy Cruz Dự bị 45.5% · Draw 24.7% · Banfield Dự bị 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Godoy Cruz Dự bị win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
57/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Godoy Cruz Dự bị win · Godoy Cruz Dự bị 3–0 Banfield Dự bị
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"alert_team": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.5,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0952,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612030 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1516,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.48,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.48,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"steam_team": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0952,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612030 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1516,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.34 xG vs Banfield D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.26 \u2192 Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 37.1%",
"Market: Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb ~45.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u2193 -10.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.48,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob": 45.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.89,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.59,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Banfield D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob": 29.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.15,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.15,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.12,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.12,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 45.54,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb\u0027s win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.48,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.34 xG vs Banfield D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.26 \u2192 Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 37.1%",
"Market: Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb ~45.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u2193 -10.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.48,
"hero_label": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb odds shortened \u2193 -10.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb (\u2193 -10.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.48,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.48,
"edge_pp": -8.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 45.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.89,
"edge_pp": 4.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.74,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.59,
"edge_pp": 3.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Banfield D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 29.72,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb (45.5%).",
"Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -10.2%, 3/8).",
"Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb (10.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.45",
"2.23",
"2.01"
],
"display": "2.45 \u2192 2.18 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.18"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.45,
2.01,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,10.2",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.01"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.45,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "banfield-res",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Banfield D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"away_team_id": 18679,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18679.webp",
"away_team_name": "Banfield D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"away_team_public_id": "37XHbILeM5BOvQ",
"away_team_slug": "banfield-res",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612030,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"home_team_id": 18687,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18687.webp",
"home_team_name": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"home_team_public_id": "4AjjVRljhokqYB",
"home_team_slug": "godoy-cruz-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "godoy-cruz-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Reserve League Argentina",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Reserve League Argentina",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3cu5nA4bnVRQaN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2837,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0529,
"implied_prob": 0.2972,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2972,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.4554
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3075
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2781,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0346,
"implied_prob": 0.2474,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2972,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.4554
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2609
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3927,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0333,
"ev": -0.1516,
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2972,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.4554
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4221
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": 0.0271,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.0952,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.127,
"ev": -0.2552,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.221,
"alpha_yes": 0.2431,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.69,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0112,
"edge_yes": -0.0112,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0927,
"ev_yes": -0.0789,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1027,
"implied_no": 0.4438,
"implied_yes": 0.5562,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4458
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.5568,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5539
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4458,
"p_final_yes": 0.5539,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2372,
"alpha_under": 0.2157,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.78,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": -0.0315,
"edge_under": 0.0315,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1045,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0818,
"implied_over": 0.5135,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5096,
"implied_under": 0.4865,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4904,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2372,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.5096,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5031
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4963
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5031,
"p_final_under": 0.4963,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0952,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0952,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612030 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1516,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4865,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0333,
"ev": -0.1516,
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.035,
"edge": 0.0026,
"market_prob": 0.4432,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4458
},
"p_final": 0.4458,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0927,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.5568,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5539
}
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0354,
"implied_prob": 0.4438,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.006,
"market_prob": 0.4904,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2372,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.5096,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5031
},
"p_final": 0.4963,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0818,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4963
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4865,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1612030,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Banfield D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"home": "Godoy Cruz D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1516,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612030,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T17:59:28.172111+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Godoy Cruz Dự bị & Banfield Dự bị!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Reserve League Argentina — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Dự bị | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Dự bị | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Dự bị | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Dự bị | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Dự bị | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Dự bị | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Dự bị | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Dự bị | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Dự bị | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Dự bị | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Dự bị | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Dự bị | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Dự bị | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Dự bị | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Dự bị | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Dự bị | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Dự bị | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Dự bị | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Dự bị | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Dự bị | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Dự bị | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Dự bị | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Dự bị | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Dự bị | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
