The model missed the final outcome (Famos Vojkovići win 3–1).
The model had projected FK Romanija Pale at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 FK Romanija Pale Famos Vojkovići ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famos Vojkovići | 34.2% | 47.1% | -12.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.7% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| FK Romanija Pale | 36.1% | 27.2% | +8.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Famos Vojkovići's win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Famos Vojkovići win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Famos Vojkovići than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FK Romanija Pale by 12.8 percentage points (48.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Famos Vojkovići 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · FK Romanija Pale 36.1%
- xG · Famos Vojkovići 1.28 — FK Romanija Pale 1.32
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Famos Vojkovići 1.91 · Draw 3.50 · FK Romanija Pale 3.30
- Implied 1X2 · Famos Vojkovići 47.1% · Draw 25.7% · FK Romanija Pale 27.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Famos Vojkovići 1.91 · Draw 3.50 · FK Romanija Pale 3.30
- Implied 1X2 · Famos Vojkovići 47.1% · Draw 25.7% · FK Romanija Pale 27.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Famos Vojkovići win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
12/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.91
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Famos Vojkovići win · Famos Vojkovići 3–1 FK Romanija Pale
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
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"match_winner": {
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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{
"label": "2-1",
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"ev_available": true,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.025,
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"ev_display": {
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},
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "FK Romanija Pale",
"sort_key": 1793.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"alpha": 0.1564,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0007,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.0479,
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"p_final": 0.4512
},
"p_final": 0.4512,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.04,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0479,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1721,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0008,
"ev": -0.0507,
"implied_prob": 0.5495,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5487
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.04,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0571,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.04,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1790.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.83,
"hero_label": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"market_prob_pct": 27.2,
"market_team": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "FK Romanija Pale",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1911,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK Romanija Pale at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK Romanija Pale as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK Romanija Pale",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side FK Romanija Pale \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1609902 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.025,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2724,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30303030303030304,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.191,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.83,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.83,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1911,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK Romanija Pale at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK Romanija Pale as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK Romanija Pale",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side FK Romanija Pale \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1609902 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.025,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2724,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30303030303030304,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.191,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Famos Vojkovi\u0107i 1.28 xG vs FK Romanija Pale 1.32 \u2192 FK Romanija Pale 36.1%",
"Market: Famos Vojkovi\u0107i ~27.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Famos Vojkovi\u0107i +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FK Romanija Pale with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.83,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"market_prob": 47.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.96,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.87,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "FK Romanija Pale",
"market_prob": 27.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.43,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.43,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.45,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.45,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"market_prob_pct": 47.07,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Famos Vojkovi\u0107i\u0027s win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.83,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FK Romanija Pale",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Famos Vojkovi\u0107i 1.28 xG vs FK Romanija Pale 1.32 \u2192 FK Romanija Pale 36.1%",
"Market: Famos Vojkovi\u0107i ~27.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Famos Vojkovi\u0107i +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FK Romanija Pale with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.83,
"hero_label": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Famos Vojkovi\u0107i than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Famos Vojkovi\u0107i.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Famos Vojkovi\u0107i than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Famos Vojkovi\u0107i."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Famos Vojkovi\u0107i more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Famos Vojkovi\u0107i (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on Famos Vojkovi\u0107i."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.83,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Famos Vojkovi\u0107i higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.83,
"edge_pp": -12.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"market_prob_pct": 47.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.96,
"edge_pp": 3.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.69,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.87,
"edge_pp": 8.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FK Romanija Pale",
"market_prob_pct": 27.24,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Famos Vojkovi\u0107i.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Famos Vojkovi\u0107i (27.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 FK Romanija Pale, Market \u2192 Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
"closing_odds": 1.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
"entry_odds": 1.91,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 1.91,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fk-romanija-pale",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FK Romanija Pale",
"away_team_id": 21737,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21737.webp",
"away_team_name": "FK Romanija Pale",
"away_team_public_id": "18KK12E1WqV8if",
"away_team_slug": "fk-romanija-pale",
"country_code": "BA",
"country_display_name": "Bosnia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ba.svg",
"country_id": 22,
"country_name": "Bosnia",
"fixture_id": 1609902,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bosnia",
"home_team_display_name": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"home_team_id": 19561,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/19561.webp",
"home_team_name": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i",
"home_team_public_id": "3XbejgxD38yHIC",
"home_team_slug": "famos-vojkovici",
"ht.home_team_slug": "famos-vojkovici",
"league_country": "Bosnia",
"league_country_display": "Bosnia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t - RS",
"league_id": 317,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/317.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t - RS",
"league_public_id": "0BZQYQRHEYeZ2S",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5q7POpcDPWnBwV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2602,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": -0.025,
"implied_prob": 0.2724,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2724,
"draw": 0.2569,
"home": 0.4707
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2955
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2821,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.2569,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2724,
"draw": 0.2569,
"home": 0.4707
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2681
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4845,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0622,
"ev": -0.2197,
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2724,
"draw": 0.2569,
"home": 0.4707
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4085
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": 0.0579,
"ev": 0.1911,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": 0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.1812,
"ev": -0.346,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1564,
"alpha_yes": 0.1721,
"best_no_odd": 2.11,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0045,
"edge_yes": -0.0045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.04,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0479,
"ev_yes": -0.0571,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0507,
"implied_no": 0.4505,
"implied_yes": 0.5495,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1564,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.0479,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4512
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1721,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0008,
"ev": -0.0507,
"implied_prob": 0.5495,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5487
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"p_final_no": 0.4512,
"p_final_yes": 0.5487,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2268,
"alpha_under": 0.2062,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.0,
"edge_over": -0.0543,
"edge_under": 0.0543,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.097,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0523,
"implied_over": 0.5363,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5376,
"implied_under": 0.4637,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4624,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2268,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.097,
"implied_prob": 0.5376,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.525
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2062,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0523,
"implied_prob": 0.4624,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4738
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.525,
"p_final_under": 0.4738,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1911,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1911,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK Romanija Pale at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK Romanija Pale as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK Romanija Pale",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side FK Romanija Pale \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1609902 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Famos Vojkovi\u0107i, but the model still strongly favours FK Romanija Pale.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.025,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2724,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30303030303030304,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.191,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": -0.025,
"implied_prob": 0.2724,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "FK Romanija Pale"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1564,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0007,
"market_prob": 0.4505,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1564,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.0479,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4512
},
"p_final": 0.4512,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0479,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1721,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0008,
"ev": -0.0507,
"implied_prob": 0.5495,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5487
}
},
"edge": 0.0045,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2062,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0115,
"market_prob": 0.4624,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2268,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.097,
"implied_prob": 0.5376,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.525
},
"p_final": 0.4738,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0523,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2062,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0523,
"implied_prob": 0.4624,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4738
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0543,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4637,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1609902,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FK Romanija Pale",
"home": "Famos Vojkovi\u0107i"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4637,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.025,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2724,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30303030303030304,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.191,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1609902,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:10:18.019673+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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