The model missed the final outcome (Sheffield United Nữ win 4–1).
The model had projected Durham W at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Durham W Sheffield United Nữ ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United Nữ | 31.9% | 38.4% | -6.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.0% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Durham W | 38.5% | 38.7% | -0.2 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.0%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Sheffield United Nữ win 4–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Durham W by 6.6 percentage points (31.9% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:53 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sheffield United Nữ 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Durham W 38.5%
- xG · Sheffield United Nữ 1.23 — Durham W 1.37
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sheffield United Nữ 2.36 · Draw 3.94 · Durham W 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Sheffield United Nữ 38.4% · Draw 23.0% · Durham W 38.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:53 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Sheffield United Nữ 2.36 · Draw 3.94 · Durham W 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Sheffield United Nữ 38.4% · Draw 23.0% · Durham W 38.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sheffield United Nữ win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
67/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.94
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sheffield United Nữ win · Sheffield United Nữ 4–1 Durham W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "95b70fc60cda90b61d4d162d04629dc0567ac50f8e0ddd274e8ca5c9a53dd32b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3849,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.6,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.13,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"home_win_prob": 0.3194,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Durham W",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Durham W"
},
"away_xg": 1.37,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Durham W",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0022,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3868,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.34
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.34,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Durham W Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.59,
"market_odds": 2.34,
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"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": -4.3,
"value_pct": -10.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 74.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 70.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.37,
"home_expected": 1.23,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sheffield United N\u1eef or Draw",
"prob": 61.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sheffield United N\u1eef or Durham W",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Durham W",
"prob": 68.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sheffield United N\u1eef or Durham W",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 31.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Durham W"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 16.6,
"implied_prob": 25.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.94
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Durham W",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 38.68,
"draw": 22.97,
"home": 38.35
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 12:53:54",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 12:34:24",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.35,
"gap_pp": -6.4,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.97,
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"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.68,
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"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.72,
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0173,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4016,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1208,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5746
},
"p_final": 0.4189,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.181,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.045,
"under": {
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -22.9,
"text": "-22.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.7,
"text": "+21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2173,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10345.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1587,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0125,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.3773,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1587,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.3773,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3898
},
"p_final": 0.3898,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.099,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0607,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.6227,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6056
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.14,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10126.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0972,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.7,
"text": "-9.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0245,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Durham W",
"sort_key": 1793.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"alert_team": "Durham W",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.6,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.7,
"market_team": "Durham W",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Durham W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Durham W at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Durham W as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Durham W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0972,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.6,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"steam_team": "Durham W",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Durham W at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Durham W as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Durham W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0972,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sheffield United N\u1eef 1.23 xG vs Durham W 1.37 \u2192 Durham W 38.5%",
"Market: Durham W ~38.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Durham W \u2193 -20.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Durham W with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.41,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 38.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.6,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.19,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Durham W",
"market_prob": 38.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.24,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.24,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.65,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.65,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.97,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Durham W"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.0%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Durham W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.2,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Durham W \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sheffield United N\u1eef 1.23 xG vs Durham W 1.37 \u2192 Durham W 38.5%",
"Market: Durham W ~38.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Durham W \u2193 -20.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Durham W with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.6,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Durham W odds shortened \u2193 -20.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Durham W, with odds shortening by 20.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Buying interest on Durham W \u2014 odds shortened by 20.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Durham W, with odds shortening by 20.7%.",
"Buying interest on Durham W \u2014 odds shortened by 20.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Durham W has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 20.7%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Durham W."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.6,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.41,
"edge_pp": -6.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 38.35,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.6,
"edge_pp": 6.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.97,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.19,
"edge_pp": -0.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Durham W",
"market_prob_pct": 38.68,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Durham W \u2014 odds shortened by 20.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Durham W (38.7%).",
"However, Durham W has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -20.7%, 6/8).",
"Durham W \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.38,
"closing_odds": 3.94,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.38,
"entry_odds": 3.94,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -46.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -46.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -45.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -45.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -40.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -40.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -25.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -25.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 12m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/8 books synchronized on Durham W (20.7% steam, score 94) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.90",
"2.60",
"2.30"
],
"display": "4.39 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 12m",
"pick_team": "Durham W",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.39"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
2.34,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,16.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Durham W \u2193 -20.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Durham W",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Durham W \u2193 -20.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Durham W",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "Durham W",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_team_name": "Durham W",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "durham-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Durham W",
"away_team_id": 15403,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15403.webp",
"away_team_name": "Durham W",
"away_team_public_id": "42bzqku5Gvqadq",
"away_team_slug": "durham-w",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1609392,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"home_team_id": 15407,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15407.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"home_team_public_id": "3uBt5lTKzwJ99J",
"home_team_slug": "sheffield-united-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sheffield-united-w",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t N\u1eef",
"league_id": 699,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/699.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t N\u1eef",
"league_public_id": "2oGS35nfcWcm34",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3FEqBOQu1R9BGX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sheffield",
"venue_name": "Bramall Lane"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4485,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3868,
"draw": 0.2297,
"home": 0.3835
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3858
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2702,
"best_odd": 3.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0245,
"implied_prob": 0.2297,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3868,
"draw": 0.2297,
"home": 0.3835
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2476
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4068,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1564,
"implied_prob": 0.3835,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3868,
"draw": 0.2297,
"home": 0.3835
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3575
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": -0.0427,
"ev": -0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.94,
"edge": 0.0421,
"ev": 0.1657,
"implied_prob": 0.2538,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": -0.1042,
"ev": -0.246,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1587,
"alpha_yes": 0.2183,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0765,
"edge_yes": -0.0765,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0607,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1159,
"implied_no": 0.3795,
"implied_yes": 0.6205,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1587,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.3773,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3898
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2183,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.6227,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6056
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3898,
"p_final_yes": 0.6056,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2043,
"alpha_under": 0.1486,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.28,
"edge_over": -0.1124,
"edge_under": 0.1124,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1208,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.045,
"implied_over": 0.5944,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5984,
"implied_under": 0.4056,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4016,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1208,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5746
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1486,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4189
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5746,
"p_final_under": 0.4189,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Durham W at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Durham W as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Durham W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0972,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Durham W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1587,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0125,
"market_prob": 0.3773,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1587,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.3773,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3898
},
"p_final": 0.3898,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0607,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2183,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.6227,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6056
}
},
"edge": 0.0765,
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1486,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.4016,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1208,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5746
},
"p_final": 0.4189,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.045,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1486,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
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"p_final": 0.4189
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1124,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4056,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1609392,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Durham W",
"home": "Sheffield United N\u1eef"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4056,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0972,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1609392,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:53:56.146951+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Sheffield United Nữ & Durham W!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Nhất Nữ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United Nữ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sunderland Nữ | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton Nữ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Leicester City WFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Southampton Nữ | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest Nữ | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Ipswich Town Nữ | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Bristol City W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Watford Nữ | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Burnley W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Durham W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Sheffield United Nữ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United Nữ | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sunderland Nữ | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton Nữ | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Bristol City W | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Leicester City WFC | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest Nữ | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 | Durham W | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 |
| 8 | Southampton Nữ | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Watford Nữ | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town Nữ | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Sheffield United Nữ | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Burnley W | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
