AI correctly predicted the ES Métlaoui win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 ES Métlaoui ES Métlaoui ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Métlaoui | 35.6% | 43.8% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.8% | -3.2 pp | Aligned |
| ES Hammam-Sousse | 34.7% | 23.4% | +11.3 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates ES Hammam-Sousse's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.4%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (ES Métlaoui win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on ES Hammam-Sousse.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced ES Métlaoui more conservatively (24.3% vs model 35.6%, 11.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (ES Métlaoui win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · ES Métlaoui 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · ES Hammam-Sousse 34.7%
- xG · ES Métlaoui 1.31 — ES Hammam-Sousse 1.29
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · ES Métlaoui 2.10 · Draw 2.79 · ES Hammam-Sousse 3.90
- Implied 1X2 · ES Métlaoui 43.6% · Draw 32.9% · ES Hammam-Sousse 23.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · ES Métlaoui 2.12 · Draw 2.83 · ES Hammam-Sousse 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · ES Métlaoui 43.8% · Draw 32.8% · ES Hammam-Sousse 23.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result ES Métlaoui win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
43/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.97
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
ES Métlaoui win · ES Métlaoui 1–0 ES Hammam-Sousse
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
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"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1401,
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],
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"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates ES M\u00e9tlaoui at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies ES M\u00e9tlaoui as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ES M\u00e9tlaoui).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2455,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.31,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.31,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ES M\u00e9tlaoui)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ES M\u00e9tlaoui)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates ES M\u00e9tlaoui at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies ES M\u00e9tlaoui as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ES M\u00e9tlaoui).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2455,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: ES M\u00e9tlaoui 1.31 xG vs ES Hammam-Sousse 1.29 \u2192 ES M\u00e9tlaoui 35.6%",
"Market: ES M\u00e9tlaoui ~43.8% implied",
"Market Steam: ES M\u00e9tlaoui +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean ES M\u00e9tlaoui with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.16,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"market_prob": 43.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.16,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.31,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "ES Hammam-Sousse",
"market_prob": 23.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.27,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.27,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.44,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.44,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "ES Hammam-Sousse",
"market_prob_pct": 23.39,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates ES Hammam-Sousse\u0027s win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.4%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.31,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.2,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: ES M\u00e9tlaoui 1.31 xG vs ES Hammam-Sousse 1.29 \u2192 ES M\u00e9tlaoui 35.6%",
"Market: ES M\u00e9tlaoui ~43.8% implied",
"Market Steam: ES M\u00e9tlaoui +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean ES M\u00e9tlaoui with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.31,
"hero_label": "ES Hammam-Sousse",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, ES M\u00e9tlaoui has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on ES Hammam-Sousse.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on ES M\u00e9tlaoui.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on ES Hammam-Sousse.",
"However, ES M\u00e9tlaoui has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on ES M\u00e9tlaoui."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors ES Hammam-Sousse more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, ES M\u00e9tlaoui has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on ES M\u00e9tlaoui."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.31,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "ES Hammam-Sousse",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.3,
"lead": "The model rates ES Hammam-Sousse considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.16,
"edge_pp": -8.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.16,
"edge_pp": -3.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.81,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.31,
"edge_pp": 11.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "ES Hammam-Sousse",
"market_prob_pct": 23.39,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on ES M\u00e9tlaoui.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers ES M\u00e9tlaoui (43.8%).",
"ES M\u00e9tlaoui \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.19,
"closing_odds": 3.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.19,
"entry_odds": 3.97,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "ES Hammam-Sousse",
"away_team_id": 10609,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10609.webp",
"away_team_name": "ES Hammam-Sousse",
"away_team_public_id": "0d3M2O97uZho6S",
"away_team_slug": "es-hammam-sousse",
"country_code": "TN",
"country_display_name": "Tunisia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tn.svg",
"country_id": 156,
"country_name": "Tunisia",
"fixture_id": 1607431,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Tunisia",
"home_team_display_name": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"home_team_id": 984,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/984.webp",
"home_team_name": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"home_team_public_id": "5g7tAq1x6IfUWw",
"home_team_slug": "es-metlaoui",
"league_country": "Tunisia",
"league_country_display": "Tunisia",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1 Tunisia",
"league_id": 202,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/202.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1 Tunisia",
"league_public_id": "28UzOzBuurzZlR",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 15:30:00",
"public_id": "4tG3Jl7KEw5DqF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Metlaoui",
"venue_name": "Metlaoui Municipal stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.249,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0282,
"ev": 0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.2339,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2339,
"draw": 0.3281,
"home": 0.438
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.2621
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4289,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1095,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2339,
"draw": 0.3281,
"home": 0.438
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3147
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3946,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1401,
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2339,
"draw": 0.3281,
"home": 0.438
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4056
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.0954,
"ev": 0.3787,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0566,
"ev": -0.1601,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.1158,
"ev": -0.2454,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1331,
"alpha_yes": 0.0968,
"best_no_odd": 1.51,
"best_yes_odd": 2.34,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1544,
"edge_yes": 0.1544,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3129,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1168,
"ev_yes": 0.2753,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.051,
"implied_no": 0.6094,
"implied_yes": 0.3906,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1331,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5888
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0968,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.051,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4056
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5888,
"p_final_yes": 0.4056,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1356,
"alpha_under": 0.1865,
"best_over_odd": 3.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.41,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.91,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.355,
"edge_over": 0.1627,
"edge_under": -0.1627,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.446,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0106,
"ev_under": -0.2696,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.117,
"implied_over": 0.3193,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3177,
"implied_under": 0.6807,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6823,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1356,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"edge": 0.0223,
"ev": -0.0106,
"implied_prob": 0.3177,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.34
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1865,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0306,
"ev": -0.117,
"implied_prob": 0.6823,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6517
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.34,
"p_final_under": 0.6517,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.446,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ES M\u00e9tlaoui)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates ES M\u00e9tlaoui at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies ES M\u00e9tlaoui as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ES M\u00e9tlaoui).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2455,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.2339,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "ES Hammam-Sousse",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1401,
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0968,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0149,
"market_prob": 0.3906,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
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"ev": -0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5888
},
"p_final": 0.4056,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.051,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0968,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.051,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
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}
},
"edge": 0.1544,
"ev": 0.2753,
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"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1356,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.91,
"edge": 0.0223,
"market_prob": 0.3177,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0223,
"ev": -0.0106,
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},
"p_final": 0.34,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0106,
"under": {
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"edge": -0.0306,
"ev": -0.117,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1627,
"ev": 0.446,
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"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1607431,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.446,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2753,
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.2753,
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "ES Hammam-Sousse",
"home": "ES M\u00e9tlaoui"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.15048,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3193,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2455,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1607431,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T15:29:24.998523+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho ES Métlaoui & ES Hammam-Sousse!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Ligue 1 Tunisia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Africain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Espérance de Tunis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | US Ben Guerdane | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | CS Sfaxien | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | US Monastirienne | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | CA Bizertin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Étoile du Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | ES Métlaoui | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | CS Hammam-Lif | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 | US Monastirienne | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Espérance de Tunis | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 4 | CS Sfaxien | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 | Stade Tunisien | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Étoile du Sahel | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 4 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 8 |
| 9 | Club Africain | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | CA Bizertin | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Zarzis | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Olympique Béja | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 13 | AS Marsa | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | ES Métlaoui | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | CS Hammam-Lif | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
