The model missed the final outcome (Vegalta Sendai win 1–3).
The model had projected Tochigi City at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Tochigi City Vegalta Sendai ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi City | 35.2% | 27.2% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.5% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Vegalta Sendai | 35.2% | 47.3% | -12.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Vegalta Sendai's win probability at 47.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Vegalta Sendai win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Vegalta Sendai than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tochigi City by 12.1 percentage points (47.3% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tochigi City 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Vegalta Sendai 35.2%
- xG · Tochigi City 1.30 — Vegalta Sendai 1.30
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tochigi City 3.49 · Draw 3.73 · Vegalta Sendai 2.01
- Implied 1X2 · Tochigi City 27.2% · Draw 25.5% · Vegalta Sendai 47.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tochigi City 3.49 · Draw 3.73 · Vegalta Sendai 2.01
- Implied 1X2 · Tochigi City 27.2% · Draw 25.5% · Vegalta Sendai 47.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vegalta Sendai win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
13/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Vegalta Sendai win · Tochigi City 1–3 Vegalta Sendai
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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{
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
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"yes": {
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}
},
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"ev_no": 0.001,
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"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -10.1,
"text": "-10.1%"
},
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"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean",
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.12,
"hero_label": "Vegalta Sendai",
"market_prob_pct": 27.2,
"market_team": "Vegalta Sendai",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Tochigi City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2277,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tochigi City at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tochigi City as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tochigi City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Tochigi City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606665 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0237,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28653295128939826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2278,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.12,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.12,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2277,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tochigi City at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tochigi City as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tochigi City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Tochigi City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606665 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0237,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28653295128939826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2278,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tochigi City 1.30 xG vs Vegalta Sendai 1.30 \u2192 Tochigi City 35.2%",
"Market: Vegalta Sendai ~27.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Tochigi City with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.94,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Tochigi City",
"market_prob": 27.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.17,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.12,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Vegalta Sendai",
"market_prob": 47.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.24,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.24,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.37,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.37,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Vegalta Sendai",
"market_prob_pct": 47.29,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Vegalta Sendai\u0027s win probability at 47.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.12,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Tochigi City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.0,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Tochigi City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tochigi City 1.30 xG vs Vegalta Sendai 1.30 \u2192 Tochigi City 35.2%",
"Market: Vegalta Sendai ~27.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Tochigi City with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.12,
"hero_label": "Vegalta Sendai",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Vegalta Sendai than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Vegalta Sendai than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Vegalta Sendai more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.12,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Vegalta Sendai",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Vegalta Sendai higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.94,
"edge_pp": 7.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tochigi City",
"market_prob_pct": 27.23,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.17,
"edge_pp": 4.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.48,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.12,
"edge_pp": -12.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Vegalta Sendai",
"market_prob_pct": 47.29,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Vegalta Sendai (27.2%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.0%, 4/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Tochigi City, Market \u2192 Vegalta Sendai, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 93h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.69 \u2192 3.08 \u2192 3.40) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.73",
"3.51",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.69 \u2192 3.08 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 93h 30m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.69"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.73,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.8",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.73"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "vegalta-sendai",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Vegalta Sendai",
"away_team_id": 286,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/286.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vegalta Sendai",
"away_team_public_id": "1JkdhLGxmC7Pm5",
"away_team_slug": "vegalta-sendai",
"country_code": "JP",
"country_display_name": "Japan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jp.svg",
"country_id": 82,
"country_name": "Japan",
"fixture_id": 1606665,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Japan",
"home_team_display_name": "Tochigi City",
"home_team_id": 7145,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7145.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tochigi City",
"home_team_public_id": "5TlZKwm3kCy8SG",
"home_team_slug": "tochigi-city",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tochigi-city",
"league_country": "Japan",
"league_country_display": "Japan",
"league_display_name": "J2 League",
"league_id": 99,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/99.webp",
"league_name": "J2 League",
"league_public_id": "0WuIiGHqAqfUK3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 08:00:00",
"public_id": "1ay9Yonk0Zjgyl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tochigi",
"venue_name": "City Football Station"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3683,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0446,
"ev": -0.1392,
"implied_prob": 0.4729,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4729,
"draw": 0.2548,
"home": 0.2723
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.4283
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2813,
"best_odd": 3.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0059,
"implied_prob": 0.2548,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4729,
"draw": 0.2548,
"home": 0.2723
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2665
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2643,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4729,
"draw": 0.2548,
"home": 0.2723
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2933
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.1457,
"ev": -0.2929,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.73,
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.2681,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.49,
"edge": 0.0652,
"ev": 0.2277,
"implied_prob": 0.2865,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2176,
"alpha_yes": 0.2394,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0237,
"edge_yes": -0.0237,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0716,
"ev_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0902,
"implied_no": 0.4313,
"implied_yes": 0.5687,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4379
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2394,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5616
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4379,
"p_final_yes": 0.5616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2281,
"alpha_under": 0.2074,
"best_over_odd": 1.79,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.735,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.99,
"edge_over": -0.0524,
"edge_under": 0.0524,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1372,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0938,
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0516,
"implied_over": 0.5344,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5342,
"implied_under": 0.4656,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4658,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2281,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.0938,
"implied_prob": 0.5342,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5223
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0516,
"implied_prob": 0.4658,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4766
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5223,
"p_final_under": 0.4766,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2277,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0774,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2277,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tochigi City at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tochigi City as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tochigi City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Tochigi City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606665 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tochigi City).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0237,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28653295128939826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2278,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.49,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Tochigi City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0048,
"market_prob": 0.4332,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4379
},
"p_final": 0.4379,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0716,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2394,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5616
}
},
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.4658,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2281,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.0938,
"implied_prob": 0.5342,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5223
},
"p_final": 0.4766,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0516,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0516,
"implied_prob": 0.4658,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4766
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0524,
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4656,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1606665,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0774,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Vegalta Sendai",
"home": "Tochigi City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028065,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4656,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0237,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28653295128939826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2278,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606665,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T07:59:57.620645+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Tochigi City & Vegalta Sendai!
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Đăng ký ngay
J2 League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | Omiya Ardija | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Shonan Bellmare | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Kataller Toyama | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Yokohama FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Tokushima Vortis | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Montedio Yamagata | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Fujieda MYFC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Tochigi City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Blaublitz Akita | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 13 | Jubilo Iwata | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Iwaki FC | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 16 | Oita Trinita | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 17 | Sagan Tosu | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 18 | Ventforet Kofu | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 19 | Consadole Sapporo | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 20 | Imabari | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omiya Ardija | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 2 | Kataller Toyama | 8 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 14 |
| 3 | Yokohama FC | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Vegalta Sendai | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Tochigi City | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Fujieda MYFC | 8 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Blaublitz Akita | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Albirex Niigata | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Iwaki FC | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Montedio Yamagata | 8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 12 |
| 12 | Jubilo Iwata | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Consadole Sapporo | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Shonan Bellmare | 8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 15 |
| 15 | Tokushima Vortis | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Sagan Tosu | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Oita Trinita | 8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 18 | Imabari | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 4 |
| 19 | Ventforet Kofu | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 7 |
| 20 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 8 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 10 |
