The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Alvarado at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Alvarado Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarado | 35.2% | 37.8% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 36.4% | -6.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 35.2% | 25.8% | +9.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Olimpo Bahia Blanca's win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.8%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Olimpo Bahia Blanca.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Alvarado; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Alvarado by 9.3 percentage points (25.9% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Alvarado 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Olimpo Bahia Blanca 35.2%
- xG · Alvarado 1.30 — Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1.30
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Alvarado 2.35 · Draw 2.44 · Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Alvarado 37.8% · Draw 36.4% · Olimpo Bahia Blanca 25.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Alvarado 2.35 · Draw 2.44 · Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Alvarado 37.8% · Draw 36.4% · Olimpo Bahia Blanca 25.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
53/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.44
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Alvarado 1–1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "638e989ab740c8514f9ea72c63f72a21f869d4894e4edd8ccb72b75b35c86510",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Alvarado or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Alvarado"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Alvarado",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0261,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3779,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.35
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.35,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Alvarado Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.65,
"market_odds": 2.35,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -7.3,
"value_pct": -17.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 17,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 15,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Alvarado or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Alvarado or Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Alvarado or Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Alvarado"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 21.1,
"implied_prob": 29.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca Win",
"model_prob": 35.2,
"odds": 3.44
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.82,
"draw": 36.4,
"home": 37.79
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 18:02:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:33:08",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Alvarado",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.79,
"gap_pp": -2.61,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.4,
"gap_pp": -6.75,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.82,
"gap_pp": 9.36,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.35,
"early": 2.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.79,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.4,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.44,
"early": 3.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.82,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.8,
"ev": -0.181,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0169,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.2707,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.2707,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.2876
},
"p_final": 0.2876,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6099,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0393,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 1.24,
"edge": -0.0357,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.7293,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6935
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6388,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 63.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.3266,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.7,
"text": "-32.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.6388,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10574.92,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1276,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.61,
"edge": 0.0248,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.3507,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1754,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1326,
"implied_prob": 0.6493,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.6152
},
"p_final": 0.3755,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4224,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0199,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1276,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.3507,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3755
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3448,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.5,
"text": "-34.5%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.4334,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 43.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4334,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10540.06,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1385,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.9,
"text": "-13.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0289,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.9,
"text": "-2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1733,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Alvarado",
"sort_key": 1792.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"alert_team": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.35,
"hero_label": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"market_prob_pct": 37.8,
"market_team": "Alvarado",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Alvarado",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alvarado at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alvarado as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alvarado",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +63.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +63.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +63.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+63.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1385,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1733,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.35,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.35,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"steam_team": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alvarado at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alvarado as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alvarado",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +63.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +63.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +63.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+63.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1385,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1733,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alvarado 1.30 xG vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1.30 \u2192 Alvarado 35.2%",
"Market: Alvarado ~37.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Olimpo Bahia Blanca \u2193 -19.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Alvarado, but sharp money moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.62,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Alvarado",
"market_prob": 37.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.75,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 36.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.35,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"market_prob": 25.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.93,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 27.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.93,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 72.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.3,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 35.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.3,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 64.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"market_prob_pct": 25.82,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Olimpo Bahia Blanca\u0027s win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.8%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.35,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Alvarado",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.6,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alvarado 1.30 xG vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1.30 \u2192 Alvarado 35.2%",
"Market: Alvarado ~37.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Olimpo Bahia Blanca \u2193 -19.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Alvarado, but sharp money moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.35,
"hero_label": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca odds shortened \u2193 -19.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Olimpo Bahia Blanca.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Olimpo Bahia Blanca.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Olimpo Bahia Blanca.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Olimpo Bahia Blanca."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Olimpo Bahia Blanca.",
"Recent line movement on Olimpo Bahia Blanca (\u2193 -19.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Olimpo Bahia Blanca."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.35,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.3,
"lead": "The model rates Olimpo Bahia Blanca considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.62,
"edge_pp": -2.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Alvarado",
"market_prob_pct": 37.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.75,
"edge_pp": -6.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.35,
"edge_pp": 9.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"market_prob_pct": 25.82,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Olimpo Bahia Blanca.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Alvarado (37.8%).",
"However, Olimpo Bahia Blanca has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -19.2%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Alvarado, Market \u2192 Alvarado, Recent sharp money \u2192 Olimpo Bahia Blanca.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.07,
"closing_odds": 3.44,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.07,
"entry_odds": 3.44,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 32m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/8 books synchronized on Olimpo Bahia Blanca (19.2% steam, score 89) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"3.88",
"3.44"
],
"display": "4.40 \u2192 3.40 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 32m",
"pick_team": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
3.44,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,16.8",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.44"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Olimpo Bahia Blanca \u2193 -19.2% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Olimpo Bahia Blanca \u2193 -19.2% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Market moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_team_name": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "olimpo-bahia-blanca",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"away_team_id": 443,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/443.webp",
"away_team_name": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"away_team_public_id": "2HbhKSTnvjMqAC",
"away_team_slug": "olimpo-bahia-blanca",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1606419,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Alvarado",
"home_team_id": 1962,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1962.webp",
"home_team_name": "Alvarado",
"home_team_public_id": "2iUMjta4L9Ikog",
"home_team_slug": "alvarado",
"ht.home_team_slug": "alvarado",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_id": 134,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_public_id": "48d0y0pjcpEL9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 18:00:00",
"public_id": "1QdDv21RDsNduM",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Mar del Plata",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2579,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0241,
"ev": -0.0289,
"implied_prob": 0.2582,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2582,
"draw": 0.364,
"home": 0.3779
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2823
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4044,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0273,
"ev": -0.1786,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2582,
"draw": 0.364,
"home": 0.3779
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3367
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4324,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.1385,
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2582,
"draw": 0.364,
"home": 0.3779
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3666
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.0611,
"ev": 0.2101,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": -0.1134,
"ev": -0.2767,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0738,
"ev": -0.1733,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1754,
"alpha_yes": 0.1276,
"best_no_odd": 1.44,
"best_yes_odd": 2.63,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.193,
"edge_yes": 0.193,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3448,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1326,
"ev_yes": 0.4334,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0199,
"implied_no": 0.648,
"implied_yes": 0.352,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1754,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1326,
"implied_prob": 0.6493,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.6152
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1276,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.3507,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3755
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.6152,
"p_final_yes": 0.3755,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.08,
"alpha_under": 0.1691,
"best_over_odd": 3.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 3.34,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.24,
"edge_over": 0.2093,
"edge_under": -0.2093,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6388,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0393,
"ev_under": -0.3266,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.14,
"implied_over": 0.2727,
"implied_over_mf": 0.2707,
"implied_under": 0.7273,
"implied_under_mf": 0.7293,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.2707,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.2876
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 1.24,
"edge": -0.0357,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.7293,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6935
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.2876,
"p_final_under": 0.6935,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alvarado at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alvarado as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alvarado",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +63.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +63.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +63.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+63.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Olimpo Bahia Blanca, but the model still strongly favours Alvarado.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1385,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1733,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.1385,
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Alvarado"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1276,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.61,
"edge": 0.0248,
"market_prob": 0.3507,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1754,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1326,
"implied_prob": 0.6493,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.6152
},
"p_final": 0.3755,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0199,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1276,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.3507,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3755
}
},
"edge": 0.193,
"ev": 0.4334,
"implied_prob": 0.352,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0169,
"market_prob": 0.2707,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.2707,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.2876
},
"p_final": 0.2876,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0393,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 1.24,
"edge": -0.0357,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.7293,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6935
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.2093,
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.2727,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1606419,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6388,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.2727,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.2727,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
"home": "Alvarado"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.236203,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4334,
"implied_prob": 0.352,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1385,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1733,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606419,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T18:02:14.748506+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Alvarado & Olimpo Bahia Blanca!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Torneo Federal A — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 25 |
| 2 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 3 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 27 |
| 4 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvarado | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 27 |
| 9 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 25 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Cipolletti | 16 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 12 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 27 |
| 14 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 15 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 23 |
| 17 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 26 |
| 18 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 19 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 23 |
| 21 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 22 | El Linqueño | 18 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 23 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 24 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 26 |
| 25 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 26 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 27 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 28 | Atenas | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 29 | Costa Brava | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 30 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 32 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 33 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 34 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 35 | Santamarina | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 36 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
