AI correctly predicted the Hearts of Oak win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
B-
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Hearts of Oak Hearts of Oak ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts of Oak | 38.5% | 46.6% | -8.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.8% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Berekum Chelsea | 31.9% | 20.6% | +11.4 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Berekum Chelsea's win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.6%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Hearts of Oak win 4–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Berekum Chelsea.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hearts of Oak more conservatively (27.1% vs model 38.5%, 11.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hearts of Oak win 4–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hearts of Oak 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Berekum Chelsea 31.9%
- xG · Hearts of Oak 1.37 — Berekum Chelsea 1.23
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hearts of Oak 1.91 · Draw 2.71 · Berekum Chelsea 4.33
- Implied 1X2 · Hearts of Oak 46.6% · Draw 32.8% · Berekum Chelsea 20.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hearts of Oak 1.91 · Draw 2.71 · Berekum Chelsea 4.33
- Implied 1X2 · Hearts of Oak 46.6% · Draw 32.8% · Berekum Chelsea 20.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hearts of Oak win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
43/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.33
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Hearts of Oak win · Hearts of Oak 4–0 Berekum Chelsea
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "0f16e5de02b86c7b722160e486784ccd007f7be9a25df39f4794b9a997872623",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Hearts of Oak or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Hearts of Oak"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Hearts of Oak",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0814,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.466,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.91
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.91,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Hearts of Oak Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.15,
"market_odds": 1.91,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": -13.9,
"value_pct": -26.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Hearts of Oak or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Hearts of Oak or Berekum Chelsea",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Berekum Chelsea",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Hearts of Oak or Berekum Chelsea",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Hearts of Oak"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 38.1,
"implied_prob": 23.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Berekum Chelsea Win",
"model_prob": 31.9,
"odds": 4.33
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Berekum Chelsea",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 20.56,
"draw": 32.84,
"home": 46.6
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 15:01:53",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 14:32:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Hearts of Oak",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.6,
"gap_pp": -8.14,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.84,
"gap_pp": -3.26,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.56,
"gap_pp": 11.39,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.83,
"gap_pp": 19.37,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 71.17,
"gap_pp": -19.37,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.91,
"early": 1.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.71,
"early": 2.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.84,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.33,
"early": 4.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.56,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 3.16,
"early": 3.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.83,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.28,
"early": 1.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 71.17,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 71.17,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0963,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0151,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.387,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1325,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.613,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5922
},
"p_final": 0.4021,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2838,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.051,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0963,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.051,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4021
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.316,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.6,
"text": "-31.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2838,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 28.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2838,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10405.42,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0187,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3535,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3722
},
"p_final": 0.3722,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2339,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0472,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.6465,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6208
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.4,
"text": "-25.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2628,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10236.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1918,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.2,
"text": "-19.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0281,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Hearts of Oak",
"sort_key": 1792.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.38,
"hero_label": "Berekum Chelsea",
"market_prob_pct": 46.6,
"market_team": "Hearts of Oak",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Hearts of Oak",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2838,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3834,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hearts of Oak at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hearts of Oak as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hearts of Oak",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Hearts of Oak \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.54 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1602106 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.54 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1918,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.38,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.38,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Hearts of Oak",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2838,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3834,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hearts of Oak at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hearts of Oak as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hearts of Oak",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Hearts of Oak \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.54 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1602106 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.54 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1918,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hearts of Oak 1.37 xG vs Berekum Chelsea 1.23 \u2192 Hearts of Oak 38.5%",
"Market: Hearts of Oak ~46.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Hearts of Oak +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hearts of Oak with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.11,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Hearts of Oak",
"market_prob": 46.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.27,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.38,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Berekum Chelsea",
"market_prob": 20.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.81,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.81,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.7,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.7,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Berekum Chelsea",
"market_prob_pct": 20.56,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Hearts of Oak"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Berekum Chelsea\u0027s win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 20.6%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.38,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hearts of Oak",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.1,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Hearts of Oak \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hearts of Oak 1.37 xG vs Berekum Chelsea 1.23 \u2192 Hearts of Oak 38.5%",
"Market: Hearts of Oak ~46.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Hearts of Oak +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hearts of Oak with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.38,
"hero_label": "Berekum Chelsea",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Berekum Chelsea.",
"note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on Berekum Chelsea.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Berekum Chelsea."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Berekum Chelsea more strongly than current market pricing.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.38,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Berekum Chelsea",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.4,
"lead": "The model rates Berekum Chelsea considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.11,
"edge_pp": -8.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hearts of Oak",
"market_prob_pct": 46.6,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.27,
"edge_pp": -3.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.38,
"edge_pp": 11.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Berekum Chelsea",
"market_prob_pct": 20.56,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on Berekum Chelsea.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hearts of Oak (46.6%).",
"Hearts of Oak \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.09,
"closing_odds": 4.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.09,
"entry_odds": 4.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"current_odds": 1.73,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.73,
"pick_team": "Hearts of Oak",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Hearts of Oak",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Berekum Chelsea",
"away_team_id": 12244,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12244.webp",
"away_team_name": "Berekum Chelsea",
"away_team_public_id": "0Munw7mV2NQs6B",
"away_team_slug": "berekum-chelsea",
"country_code": "GH",
"country_display_name": "Ghana",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gh.svg",
"country_id": 61,
"country_name": "Ghana",
"fixture_id": 1602106,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ghana",
"home_team_display_name": "Hearts of Oak",
"home_team_id": 12249,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12249.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hearts of Oak",
"home_team_public_id": "3WAtY8rnfmwWkw",
"home_team_slug": "hearts-of-oak",
"league_country": "Ghana",
"league_country_display": "Ghana",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ghana",
"league_id": 570,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/570.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ghana",
"league_public_id": "0L7C8yH8Y3pmGh",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 15:00:00",
"public_id": "2FqdwKH32shQss",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Accra",
"venue_name": "University of Ghana Sports Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1658,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": -0.0281,
"implied_prob": 0.2056,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2056,
"draw": 0.3284,
"home": 0.466
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2245
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.428,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1477,
"implied_prob": 0.3284,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2056,
"draw": 0.3284,
"home": 0.466
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3145
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5268,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1918,
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2056,
"draw": 0.3284,
"home": 0.466
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4231
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.33,
"edge": 0.0886,
"ev": 0.3834,
"implied_prob": 0.2309,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": -0.0731,
"ev": -0.1982,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.1389,
"ev": -0.2654,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1325,
"alpha_yes": 0.0963,
"best_no_odd": 1.5,
"best_yes_odd": 2.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.157,
"edge_yes": 0.157,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.316,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1176,
"ev_yes": 0.2838,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.051,
"implied_no": 0.613,
"implied_yes": 0.387,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1325,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.613,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5922
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0963,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.051,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4021
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5922,
"p_final_yes": 0.4021,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1453,
"alpha_under": 0.1998,
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.56,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.4,
"edge_over": 0.1281,
"edge_under": -0.1281,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0472,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1309,
"implied_over": 0.3539,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3535,
"implied_under": 0.6461,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6465,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3722
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.6465,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6208
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3722,
"p_final_under": 0.6208,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2838,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3834,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2838,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2838,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3834,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hearts of Oak at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hearts of Oak as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hearts of Oak",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Hearts of Oak \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.54 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1602106 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.54 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1918,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1918,
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Hearts of Oak"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0963,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0151,
"market_prob": 0.387,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1325,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.613,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5922
},
"p_final": 0.4021,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.051,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0963,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.051,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4021
}
},
"edge": 0.157,
"ev": 0.2838,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.3535,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3722
},
"p_final": 0.3722,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0472,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.6465,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6208
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1281,
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1602106,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2838,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Berekum Chelsea",
"home": "Hearts of Oak"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.135861,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2838,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1918,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1602106,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T15:01:54.938401+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Hearts of Oak & Berekum Chelsea!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Ngoại hạng Ghana — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Samartex | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Port City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Ashanti Gold | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Aduana Stars | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Bechem United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Karela | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Basake Holy Stars | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Medeama | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Vision | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Heart of Lions | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Swedru All Blacks | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Asante Kotoko | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Debibi United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Berekum Chelsea | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Dreams | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Samartex | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 4 | Ashanti Gold | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Vision | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Debibi United | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Karela | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Port City | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Asante Kotoko | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Dreams | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Aduana Stars | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Bechem United | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Heart of Lions | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 16 | Basake Holy Stars | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Swedru All Blacks | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 18 | Young Apostles | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
