The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Worcester City at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Worcester City Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club Warwick | 33.3% | 37.2% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.7% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Worcester City | 37.1% | 35.0% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:48 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Racing Club Warwick 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Worcester City 37.0%
- xG · Racing Club Warwick 1.26 — Worcester City 1.34
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:18 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Racing Club Warwick 2.43 · Draw 3.26 · Worcester City 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Racing Club Warwick 37.2% · Draw 27.7% · Worcester City 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:48 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Racing Club Warwick 2.43 · Draw 3.26 · Worcester City 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Racing Club Warwick 37.2% · Draw 27.7% · Worcester City 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
28/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.43
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Racing Club Warwick 2–2 Worcester City
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ab67a9d80dd8969a4b619ee635e20e778afab689233da5f51ed0ee8684fc6e4e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"away_win_prob": 0.3706,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Worcester City and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Worcester City"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Worcester City",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.02,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3505,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.1,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.58
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.58,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Worcester City Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.85,
"market_odds": 2.58,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 10.6,
"prob_edge": -1.7,
"value_pct": -4.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Racing Club Warwick or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Racing Club Warwick or Worcester City",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Worcester City",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Racing Club Warwick or Worcester City",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Worcester City"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -4.4,
"implied_prob": 38.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Worcester City Win",
"model_prob": 37.0,
"odds": 2.58
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Worcester City",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.05,
"draw": 27.74,
"home": 37.21
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-29 18:48:50",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-29 18:18:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Racing Club Warwick",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.21,
"gap_pp": -3.86,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.74,
"gap_pp": 1.86,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.05,
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.8,
"gap_pp": -2.6,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.2,
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.43,
"early": 2.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.21,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.26,
"early": 3.26,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.74,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.05,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.91,
"early": 1.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.3,
"ev": -0.025,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.8,
"market_prob": 0.1282,
"market_prob_pct": 12.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0073,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4838,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2348,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0904,
"implied_prob": 0.5162,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5082
},
"p_final": 0.4911,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0106,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.062,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.062,
"implied_prob": 0.4838,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4911
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0037,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.4381,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.0877,
"implied_prob": 0.4381,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4418
},
"p_final": 0.4418,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0604,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0877,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2412,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.5619,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5578
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.1,
"text": "-10.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0354,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1791.15,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0732,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0732,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0441,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Worcester City",
"sort_key": 1781.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "Worcester City",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.9,
"hero_label": "Racing Club Warwick",
"market_prob_pct": 35.0,
"market_team": "Racing Club Warwick",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Worcester City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Worcester City at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Worcester City as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Worcester City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0732,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0441,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.9,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "Worcester City",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Worcester City at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Worcester City as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Worcester City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0732,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0441,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing Club Warwick 1.26 xG vs Worcester City 1.34 \u2192 Worcester City 37.1%",
"Market: Racing Club Warwick ~35.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Worcester City odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Worcester City, but the market has moved away from Worcester City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.9,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Racing Club Warwick",
"market_prob": 37.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.89,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.01,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Worcester City",
"market_prob": 35.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.34,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.34,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.62,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.62,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Racing Club Warwick",
"market_prob_pct": 37.21,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Worcester City"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Worcester City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing Club Warwick 1.26 xG vs Worcester City 1.34 \u2192 Worcester City 37.1%",
"Market: Racing Club Warwick ~35.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Worcester City odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Worcester City, but the market has moved away from Worcester City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.9,
"hero_label": "Racing Club Warwick",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Worcester City odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Worcester City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Worcester City \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Worcester City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Worcester City \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Worcester City has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Worcester City."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Racing Club Warwick",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.9,
"edge_pp": -3.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Racing Club Warwick",
"market_prob_pct": 37.21,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.89,
"edge_pp": 1.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.74,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.01,
"edge_pp": 2.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Worcester City",
"market_prob_pct": 35.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Worcester City \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Racing Club Warwick (35.0%).",
"However, Worcester City has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.1%, 6/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Worcester City, Market \u2192 Racing Club Warwick, while Worcester City odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.15,
"closing_odds": 2.43,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.15,
"entry_odds": 2.43,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 47h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Worcester City (11.1%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.58",
"2.42",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.60 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 47h 30m",
"pick_team": "Worcester City",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.58,
2.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.58"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/8 sportsbooks on Worcester City",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Worcester City",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Market moved away from Worcester City while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Worcester City",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Worcester City",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Worcester City",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "worcester-city",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Worcester City",
"away_team_id": 9010,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9010.webp",
"away_team_name": "Worcester City",
"away_team_public_id": "3tGksnm1rJI39T",
"away_team_slug": "worcester-city",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1596901,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Racing Club Warwick",
"home_team_id": 8904,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8904.webp",
"home_team_name": "Racing Club Warwick",
"home_team_public_id": "2QqQFuYIssHHNd",
"home_team_slug": "racing-club-warwick",
"ht.home_team_slug": "racing-club-warwick",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Non League Premier - Southern Central",
"league_id": 931,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/931.webp",
"league_name": "Non League Premier - Southern Central",
"league_public_id": "315nCh9kwH6D1R",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0KlpxdR2eS2XQA",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4365,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.3505,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3505,
"draw": 0.2774,
"home": 0.3721
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3592
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2916,
"best_odd": 3.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.2774,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3505,
"draw": 0.2774,
"home": 0.3721
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2828
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4239,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.1355,
"implied_prob": 0.3721,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3505,
"draw": 0.2774,
"home": 0.3721
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3557
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.3876,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.26,
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.3067,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": -0.078,
"ev": -0.1896,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2193,
"alpha_yes": 0.2412,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0162,
"edge_yes": -0.0162,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0877,
"ev_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1019,
"implied_no": 0.4388,
"implied_yes": 0.5612,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.0877,
"implied_prob": 0.4381,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4418
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2412,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.5619,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5578
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4418,
"p_final_yes": 0.5578,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2348,
"alpha_under": 0.2135,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.79,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.91,
"edge_over": -0.0334,
"edge_under": 0.0334,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0904,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.062,
"implied_over": 0.5154,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5162,
"implied_under": 0.4846,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4838,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2348,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0904,
"implied_prob": 0.5162,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5082
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.062,
"implied_prob": 0.4838,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4911
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5082,
"p_final_under": 0.4911,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Worcester City at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Worcester City as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Worcester City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Worcester City, but the model still strongly favours Worcester City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0732,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0441,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.3505,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Worcester City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0037,
"market_prob": 0.4381,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.0877,
"implied_prob": 0.4381,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4418
},
"p_final": 0.4418,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0877,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2412,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.5619,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5578
}
},
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0354,
"implied_prob": 0.4388,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0073,
"market_prob": 0.4838,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2348,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0904,
"implied_prob": 0.5162,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5082
},
"p_final": 0.4911,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.062,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.062,
"implied_prob": 0.4838,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4911
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1596901,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Worcester City",
"home": "Racing Club Warwick"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0732,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0441,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1596901,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T18:48:52.017727+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Racing Club Warwick & Worcester City!
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Đăng ký ngay
Non League Premier - Southern Central — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Bury Town | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 4 | Alvechurch | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 5 | Kettering Town | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Rushall Olympic | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Peterborough Sports | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Leiston | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Needham Market | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Bishop's Stortford | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Redditch United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Halesowen Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Stourbridge | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Racing Club Warwick | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Worcester City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Banbury United | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 18 | Leighton Town | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | Leamington | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Hitchin Town | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 21 | Stratford Town | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 22 | Stamford | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 8 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 24 |
| 2 | Alvechurch | 8 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 19 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 4 | Bury Town | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | Rushall Olympic | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Leiston | 8 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Peterborough Sports | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | Kettering Town | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 |
| 10 | Needham Market | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Redditch United | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Leighton Town | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | Bishop's Stortford | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Stourbridge | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Racing Club Warwick | 8 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Halesowen Town | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Banbury United | 8 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Leamington | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Hitchin Town | 8 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
| 20 | Stratford Town | 8 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 |
| 21 | Worcester City | 8 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 22 | Stamford | 8 | 1 | 21 | -20 | 0 |
