AI correctly predicted the Brentwood Town win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Brentwood Town Brentwood Town ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whyteleafe | 33.8% | 29.9% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.7% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Brentwood Town | 36.6% | 46.4% | -9.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Brentwood Town's win probability at 46.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Brentwood Town win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Brentwood Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Brentwood Town higher (46.4% vs model 36.6%, 9.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Brentwood Town win 1–2).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Whyteleafe 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Brentwood Town 36.6%
- xG · Whyteleafe 1.27 — Brentwood Town 1.33
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Whyteleafe 3.02 · Draw 3.82 · Brentwood Town 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Whyteleafe 29.9% · Draw 23.7% · Brentwood Town 46.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Whyteleafe 3.02 · Draw 3.82 · Brentwood Town 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Whyteleafe 29.9% · Draw 23.7% · Brentwood Town 46.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Brentwood Town win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
51/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Brentwood Town win · Whyteleafe 1–2 Brentwood Town
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "e98db402c69804c87872bfcf5eb5a534a4826d06b83b62ac88eca9b33900d082",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Whyteleafe or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Whyteleafe"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0978,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4638,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.95
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Brentwood Town Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.16,
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"overround": 10.6,
"prob_edge": -14.7,
"value_pct": -28.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Whyteleafe or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Whyteleafe or Brentwood Town",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Brentwood Town",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Whyteleafe or Brentwood Town",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Brentwood Town"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 13.1,
"implied_prob": 26.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.82
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Brentwood Town",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.38,
"draw": 23.67,
"home": 29.95
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-30 18:44:29",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-30 18:14:26",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Whyteleafe",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.95,
"gap_pp": 3.81,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.67,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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}
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"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
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"most_likely": {
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"prob": 12.5
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
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"consensus_odds": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0204,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3729,
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"over": {
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"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.599
},
"p_final": 0.3934,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
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},
"value_side": "under"
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -27.7,
"text": "-27.7%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10462.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0143,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3625,
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"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"ev": -0.0523,
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},
"p_final": 0.3768,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0523,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1784,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.8,
"text": "+17.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2097,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.0,
"text": "-21.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1784,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10160.56,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1933,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.3,
"text": "-19.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4638,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0333,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Brentwood Town",
"sort_key": 1791.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.79,
"hero_label": "Brentwood Town",
"market_prob_pct": 46.4,
"market_team": "Brentwood Town",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Brentwood Town",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Brentwood Town)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Brentwood Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brentwood Town at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brentwood Town as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brentwood Town",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Brentwood Town).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1933,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4638,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.79,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.79,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Brentwood Town).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Brentwood Town)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Brentwood Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brentwood Town at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brentwood Town as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brentwood Town",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Brentwood Town).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1933,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4638,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Whyteleafe 1.27 xG vs Brentwood Town 1.33 \u2192 Brentwood Town 36.6%",
"Market: Brentwood Town ~46.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +4.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Brentwood Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.82,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Whyteleafe",
"market_prob": 29.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.97,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.79,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Brentwood Town",
"market_prob": 46.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.61,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.61,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.12,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.12,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Brentwood Town",
"market_prob_pct": 46.38,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Brentwood Town\u0027s win probability at 46.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.79,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Brentwood Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Brentwood Town \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Whyteleafe 1.27 xG vs Brentwood Town 1.33 \u2192 Brentwood Town 36.6%",
"Market: Brentwood Town ~46.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +4.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Brentwood Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.79,
"hero_label": "Brentwood Town",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +4.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Brentwood Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Brentwood Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Brentwood Town above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.79,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Brentwood Town",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Brentwood Town higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.82,
"edge_pp": 3.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Whyteleafe",
"market_prob_pct": 29.95,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.97,
"edge_pp": 5.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.79,
"edge_pp": -9.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Brentwood Town",
"market_prob_pct": 46.38,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Brentwood Town (46.4%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.2%, 5/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Brentwood Town \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.28,
"closing_odds": 1.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
"entry_odds": 1.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Draw (4.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.82",
"3.71",
"3.60"
],
"display": "4.28 \u2192 3.54 \u2192 3.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.28"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.54"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.82,
3.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.82"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/7 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "brentwood-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Brentwood Town",
"away_team_id": 7216,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7216.webp",
"away_team_name": "Brentwood Town",
"away_team_public_id": "2Ki6Q9oAdMBDEi",
"away_team_slug": "brentwood-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1595988,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Whyteleafe",
"home_team_id": 7262,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7262.webp",
"home_team_name": "Whyteleafe",
"home_team_public_id": "1l4bWRaQFG97QV",
"home_team_slug": "whyteleafe",
"ht.home_team_slug": "whyteleafe",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Non League Premier - Isthmian",
"league_id": 58,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/58.webp",
"league_name": "Non League Premier - Isthmian",
"league_public_id": "5p6CYu3fPXwb1r",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-30 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0u6RdMjzl1wb6I",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.512,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0501,
"ev": -0.1933,
"implied_prob": 0.4638,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4638,
"draw": 0.2367,
"home": 0.2995
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4137
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2731,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.2367,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4638,
"draw": 0.2367,
"home": 0.2995
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2531
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2829,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4638,
"draw": 0.2367,
"home": 0.2995
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3102
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.1468,
"ev": -0.2863,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0347,
"ev": 0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": 0.0064,
"ev": 0.0194,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.155,
"alpha_yes": 0.2132,
"best_no_odd": 2.59,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0912,
"edge_yes": -0.0912,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1784,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0523,
"ev_yes": -0.2097,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1166,
"implied_no": 0.3638,
"implied_yes": 0.6362,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"best_odd": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0523,
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3768
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.6375,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6178
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3768,
"p_final_yes": 0.6178,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1936,
"alpha_under": 0.1408,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.455,
"edge_over": -0.1461,
"edge_under": 0.1461,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1255,
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0343,
"implied_over": 0.6281,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6271,
"implied_under": 0.3719,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3729,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1936,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1255,
"implied_prob": 0.6271,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.599
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3729,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3934
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.599,
"p_final_under": 0.3934,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Brentwood Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brentwood Town at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brentwood Town as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brentwood Town",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Brentwood Town).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1933,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4638,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0501,
"ev": -0.1933,
"implied_prob": 0.4638,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Brentwood Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0143,
"market_prob": 0.3625,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"best_odd": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0523,
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3768
},
"p_final": 0.3768,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0523,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.6375,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6178
}
},
"edge": 0.0912,
"ev": 0.1784,
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0204,
"market_prob": 0.3729,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1936,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1255,
"implied_prob": 0.6271,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.599
},
"p_final": 0.3934,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3729,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3934
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1461,
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3719,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1595988,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3468,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1784,
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1784,
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Brentwood Town",
"home": "Whyteleafe"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.12575,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3719,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1933,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4638,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1595988,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-30T18:44:31.673603+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Đăng ký ngay
Non League Premier - Isthmian — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 2 | Welling United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Dartford | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Carshalton Athletic | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Lewes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Leatherhead | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | St Albans City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Ramsgate | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Dulwich Hamlet | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Eastbourne Borough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Chatham Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Aveley | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Burgess Hill Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 15 | Cray Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Maldon & Tiptree | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 17 | Cheshunt | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 18 | Brentwood Town | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 19 | Whyteleafe | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 20 | Whitehawk | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 21 | Three Bridges | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 8 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | Ramsgate | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 13 |
| 3 | Welling United | 8 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | St Albans City | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | Leatherhead | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Dulwich Hamlet | 7 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 |
| 7 | Chatham Town | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Aveley | 8 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Three Bridges | 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 5 |
| 10 | Carshalton Athletic | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 11 | Lewes | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 12 | Eastbourne Borough | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 13 | Dartford | 8 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 18 |
| 14 | Cray Wanderers | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 9 |
| 15 | Brentwood Town | 8 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Burgess Hill Town | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 19 | Whyteleafe | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 20 | Whitehawk | 8 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 5 |
| 21 | Cheshunt | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 |
