AI correctly predicted the ESMTK win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 ESMTK ESMTK ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESMTK | 42.9% | 48.6% | -5.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 24.8% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Vasas II | 27.9% | 26.6% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates ESMTK's win probability at 48.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (ESMTK win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on ESMTK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced ESMTK higher (48.6% vs model 42.9%, 5.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (ESMTK win 2–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · ESMTK 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Vasas II 27.9%
- xG · ESMTK 1.46 — Vasas II 1.14
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · ESMTK 1.83 · Draw 3.59 · Vasas II 3.34
- Implied 1X2 · ESMTK 48.6% · Draw 24.8% · Vasas II 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · ESMTK 1.83 · Draw 3.59 · Vasas II 3.34
- Implied 1X2 · ESMTK 48.6% · Draw 24.8% · Vasas II 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result ESMTK win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
71/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
ESMTK win · ESMTK 2–0 Vasas II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"home_win_prob": 0.4286,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : ESMTK or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "ESMTK"
},
"away_xg": 1.14,
"betting_insight": {
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"main_pick_meta": {
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
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{
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],
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 6,
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"home_played": 6,
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"no_prob": 46.2,
"pick": "No",
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
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},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "ESMTK"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 24.77,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 13:58:57",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 13:33:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "ESMTK",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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"top_value_gap": {
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"lean_card": {
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"status_key": "positive_edge"
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"top5": [
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{
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
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]
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"home_xg": 1.46,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0214,
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"p_final": 0.3846,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.5,
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"ev_over": -0.277,
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"text": "-27.7%"
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10415.5,
"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1095,
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"edge": 0.0095,
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": 13.7,
"text": "+13.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2145,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.4,
"text": "-21.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1365,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 46.2,
"sort_key": 10122.85,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.8
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1681,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.066,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.6,
"text": "-6.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "ESMTK",
"sort_key": 1783.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"alert_team": "Vasas II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.74,
"hero_label": "ESMTK",
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"market_team": "ESMTK",
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_team": "ESMTK",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates ESMTK at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies ESMTK as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "ESMTK",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1681,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.74,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.74,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.14,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.46,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.46,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.46 \u00b7 Away xG 1.14 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"steam_team": "Vasas II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates ESMTK at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies ESMTK as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "ESMTK",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1681,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: ESMTK 1.46 xG vs Vasas II 1.14 \u2192 ESMTK 42.9%",
"Market: ESMTK ~48.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Vasas II \u2193 -10.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours ESMTK, but sharp money moved toward Vasas II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.74,
"fair_prob": 42.86,
"label": "ESMTK",
"market_prob": 48.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.43,
"fair_prob": 29.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"fair_prob": 27.93,
"label": "Vasas II",
"market_prob": 26.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.08,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.08,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.72,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.72,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "ESMTK",
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Vasas II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates ESMTK\u0027s win probability at 48.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.74,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "ESMTK",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.7,
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: ESMTK 1.46 xG vs Vasas II 1.14 \u2192 ESMTK 42.9%",
"Market: ESMTK ~48.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Vasas II \u2193 -10.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours ESMTK, but sharp money moved toward Vasas II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.74,
"hero_label": "ESMTK",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Vasas II odds shortened \u2193 -10.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Vasas II, with odds shortening by 10.5%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on ESMTK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Vasas II \u2014 odds shortened by 10.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on ESMTK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Vasas II, with odds shortening by 10.5%.",
"Buying interest on Vasas II \u2014 odds shortened by 10.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices ESMTK above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Vasas II has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 10.5%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.74,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 42.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
"max_prob_pct": 42.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "ESMTK",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices ESMTK higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.74,
"edge_pp": -5.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "ESMTK",
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.43,
"edge_pp": 4.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.77,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.3,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vasas II",
"market_prob_pct": 26.63,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Vasas II \u2014 odds shortened by 10.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers ESMTK (48.6%).",
"However, Vasas II has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -10.5%, 3/5).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 ESMTK, Market \u2192 ESMTK, Recent sharp money \u2192 Vasas II.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.5
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Vasas II (10.5%, 3/5) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.80",
"3.57",
"3.34"
],
"display": "4.12 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 44m",
"pick_team": "Vasas II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.12"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
3.34,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,15.7",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.34"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Vasas II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Market moved toward Vasas II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Vasas II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Vasas II",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Vasas II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Vasas II",
"away_team_id": 19462,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19462.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vasas II",
"away_team_public_id": "3LHAgK34edqP6O",
"away_team_slug": "vasas-ii",
"country_code": "HU",
"country_display_name": "Hungary",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hu.svg",
"country_id": 71,
"country_name": "Hungary",
"fixture_id": 1594368,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Hungary",
"home_team_display_name": "ESMTK",
"home_team_id": 5087,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5087.webp",
"home_team_name": "ESMTK",
"home_team_public_id": "3ikxRMGKXQsZ6a",
"home_team_slug": "esmtk",
"league_country": "Hungary",
"league_country_display": "Hungary",
"league_display_name": "NB III - Southeast",
"league_id": 1023,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1023.webp",
"league_name": "NB III - Southeast",
"league_public_id": "54VuKhMEnq0NRY",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 14:00:00",
"public_id": "26DS8wiOEURyGY",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2942,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0981,
"implied_prob": 0.2663,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2663,
"draw": 0.2477,
"home": 0.486
},
"model_prob": 0.2791,
"p_final": 0.27
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.28,
"best_odd": 3.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.066,
"implied_prob": 0.2477,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2663,
"draw": 0.2477,
"home": 0.486
},
"model_prob": 0.2921,
"p_final": 0.2602
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5485,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1681,
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2663,
"draw": 0.2477,
"home": 0.486
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"p_final": 0.4546
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.0679,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.2791
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.59,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": 0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.2786,
"model_prob": 0.2921
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1177,
"ev": -0.2153,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.4288
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1095,
"alpha_yes": 0.1506,
"best_no_odd": 2.46,
"best_yes_odd": 1.46,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0872,
"edge_yes": -0.0872,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1365,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.064,
"ev_yes": -0.2145,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1064,
"implied_no": 0.3748,
"implied_yes": 0.6252,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1095,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.3844
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1506,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.1064,
"implied_prob": 0.6252,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.612
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3844,
"p_final_yes": 0.612,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.19,
"alpha_under": 0.1382,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.42,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.49,
"edge_over": -0.1508,
"edge_under": 0.1508,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1375,
"ev_under": 0.295,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0424,
"implied_over": 0.6328,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6368,
"implied_under": 0.3672,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3632,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.6368,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6074
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1382,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3846
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6074,
"p_final_under": 0.3846,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates ESMTK at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies ESMTK as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "ESMTK",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Vasas II, but the model still strongly favours ESMTK.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1681,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"draw_prob": 0.2921,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4288,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1681,
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "ESMTK"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1095,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0095,
"market_prob": 0.3748,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1095,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.3844
},
"p_final": 0.3844,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.064,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1506,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.1064,
"implied_prob": 0.6252,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.612
}
},
"edge": 0.0872,
"ev": 0.1365,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1382,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.3632,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.6368,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6074
},
"p_final": 0.3846,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0424,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1382,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3846
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1508,
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3672,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1594368,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.295,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2791,
"draw": 0.2921,
"home": 0.4288
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1365,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1365,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Vasas II",
"home": "ESMTK"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.106967,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3672,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1681,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1594368,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T13:58:59.601019+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho ESMTK & Vasas II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
NB III - Southeast — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| 2 | III. Kerületi TUE | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | Újpest II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | ESMTK | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Szeged-Csanád II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Vasas II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Csepel | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Monori SE | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Szolnoki MÁV FC | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Dabas | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Honvéd II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Békéscsaba 1912 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Hódmezővásárhely | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | BKV Előre | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | Sándorfalva | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Szegedi VSE | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 9 | 33 | 5 | +28 | 27 |
| 2 | Újpest II | 9 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 17 |
| 3 | Vasas II | 9 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 14 |
| 4 | Csepel | 9 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 | Szolnoki MÁV FC | 9 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Monori SE | 9 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | Szeged-Csanád II | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 | ESMTK | 8 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 15 |
| 9 | Honvéd II | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | III. Kerületi TUE | 9 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 24 |
| 11 | Dabas | 8 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
| 12 | Szegedi VSE | 9 | 11 | 30 | -19 | 2 |
| 13 | Békéscsaba 1912 | 8 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 6 |
| 15 | BKV Előre | 8 | 7 | 29 | -22 | 4 |
| 16 | Sándorfalva | 9 | 6 | 28 | -22 | 4 |
