The model missed the final outcome (Dorogi FC win 0–1).
The model had projected MTE 1904 at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 MTE 1904 Dorogi FC ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned MTE 1904; match finished Dorogi FC
Market lesson
The full-time result was Dorogi FC win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · MTE 1904 1.30 — Dorogi FC 1.30
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dorogi FC win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
- Validation: Pending
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
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{
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],
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"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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{
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}
],
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"label": "Neutral",
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"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 68,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates MTE 1904 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies MTE 1904 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 verify price",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "MTE 1904",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
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"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "model_value",
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Consensus-line value, reliability, and market alignment clear Primary rules \u2014 size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1206,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1381,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Market has already priced much of the edge",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "MTE 1904",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 68,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates MTE 1904 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies MTE 1904 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 verify price",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "MTE 1904",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "model_value",
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Consensus-line value, reliability, and market alignment clear Primary rules \u2014 size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1206,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1381,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 verify price",
"subline": "Consensus-line value, reliability, and market alignment clear Primary rules \u2014 size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: MTE 1904 1.30 xG vs Dorogi FC 1.30 \u2192 MTE 1904 35.2%",
"Market Steam: MTE 1904 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean MTE 1904 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "MTE 1904",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Dorogi FC",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.12,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.12,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.66,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.66,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "MTE 1904",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "No clear directional signal",
"positive": null
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The model and market both lean MTE 1904, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Dorogi FC remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: MTE 1904 1.30 xG vs Dorogi FC 1.30 \u2192 MTE 1904 35.2%",
"Market Steam: MTE 1904 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean MTE 1904 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "MTE 1904",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dorogi FC",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans MTE 1904 (35.2%).",
"The model and market both lean MTE 1904, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Dorogi FC remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.82,
"entry_odds": 2.45,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "MTE 1904",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "MTE 1904",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "dorogi-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dorogi FC",
"away_team_id": 2401,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2401.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dorogi FC",
"away_team_public_id": "2Q5kwWAih01w04",
"away_team_slug": "dorogi-fc",
"country_code": "HU",
"country_display_name": "Hungary",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hu.svg",
"country_id": 71,
"country_name": "Hungary",
"fixture_id": 1594144,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Hungary",
"home_team_display_name": "MTE 1904",
"home_team_id": 2412,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2412.webp",
"home_team_name": "MTE 1904",
"home_team_public_id": "4Os5BVmxEyeYc8",
"home_team_slug": "mte-1904",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mte-1904",
"league_country": "Hungary",
"league_country_display": "Hungary",
"league_display_name": "NB III - Northwest",
"league_id": 635,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/635.webp",
"league_name": "NB III - Northwest",
"league_public_id": "3F2rqyM2gylF4k",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5lM3KTfBM7w0A3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4309,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.3801,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3801,
"draw": 0.2552,
"home": 0.3646
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3679
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2815,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0661,
"implied_prob": 0.2552,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3801,
"draw": 0.2552,
"home": 0.3646
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2668
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4413,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3801,
"draw": 0.2552,
"home": 0.3646
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.359
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0738,
"ev": -0.1733,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": 0.0376,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0564,
"ev": -0.1382,
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1153,
"alpha_yes": 0.1585,
"best_no_odd": 2.32,
"best_yes_odd": 1.52,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0566,
"edge_yes": -0.0566,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0556,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0706,
"ev_yes": -0.1716,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0992,
"implied_no": 0.3984,
"implied_yes": 0.6016,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1153,
"best_odd": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0706,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.405
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1585,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.6016,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5926
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.405,
"p_final_yes": 0.5926,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2174,
"alpha_under": 0.1977,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.63,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0812,
"edge_under": 0.0812,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.111,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0487,
"implied_over": 0.5632,
"implied_over_mf": 0.563,
"implied_under": 0.4368,
"implied_under_mf": 0.437,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5454
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.453
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5454,
"p_final_under": 0.453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 68,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates MTE 1904 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies MTE 1904 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 verify price",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "MTE 1904",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "model_value",
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Consensus-line value, reliability, and market alignment clear Primary rules \u2014 size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1206,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1381,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "MTE 1904"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1153,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0065,
"market_prob": 0.3984,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1153,
"best_odd": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0706,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.405
},
"p_final": 0.405,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0706,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1585,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.6016,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5926
}
},
"edge": 0.0566,
"ev": 0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"market_prob": 0.437,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5454
},
"p_final": 0.453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.453
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0812,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4368,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1594144,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dorogi FC",
"home": "MTE 1904"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4368,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1206,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1381,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1594144,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T13:34:25.541255+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho MTE 1904 & Dorogi FC!
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Đăng ký ngay
NB III - Northwest — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haladás VSE | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Tatabánya | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Dorogi FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Sárisápi Bányász | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | MTE 1904 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Bicskei | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Komárom | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Győri ETO II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | SC Sopron | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | Puskás II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Veszprém | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 13 | Pápai Perutz | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 14 | Király SZE | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | Szombathelyi Haladás | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Balatonalmádi | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | 1908 SZAC | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dorogi FC | 8 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 19 |
| 2 | Haladás VSE | 8 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 20 |
| 3 | Tatabánya | 9 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 20 |
| 4 | Bicskei | 9 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 15 |
| 5 | Komárom | 9 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | Sárisápi Bányász | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Zalaegerszegi TE II | 9 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | MTE 1904 | 8 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 9 | Győri ETO II | 9 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 | Puskás II | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Veszprém | 9 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | SC Sopron | 9 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Király SZE | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Pápai Perutz | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Balatonalmádi | 8 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 3 |
| 16 | 1908 SZAC | 9 | 5 | 27 | -22 | 2 |
| 17 | Szombathelyi Haladás | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |