AI correctly predicted the Kelty Hearts win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelty Hearts | 35.6% | 22.9% | +12.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 19.4% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Montrose | 34.7% | 57.6% | -22.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Montrose's win probability at 57.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 22.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Kelty Hearts win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kelty Hearts higher (58.5% vs model 35.6%, 22.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kelty Hearts win 2–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kelty Hearts 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Montrose 34.7%
- xG · Kelty Hearts 1.31 — Montrose 1.29
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:48 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kelty Hearts 2.75 · Draw 4.15 · Montrose 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · Kelty Hearts 32.9% · Draw 21.8% · Montrose 45.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Kelty Hearts 3.99 · Draw 4.71 · Montrose 1.59
- Implied 1X2 · Kelty Hearts 22.9% · Draw 19.4% · Montrose 57.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kelty Hearts win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
52/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.59
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Kelty Hearts win · Kelty Hearts 2–1 Montrose
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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},
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"betting_insight": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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{
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"pick": "No",
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
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{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
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"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Kelty Hearts"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:10:45",
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"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 12.34,
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
{
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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"home_xg": 1.31,
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{
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3493,
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"text": "-34.9%"
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"text": "+25%+"
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{
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"no": {
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2697,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -27.0,
"text": "-27.0%"
},
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"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.547,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10492.3,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0385,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.9,
"text": "+3.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2295,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0385,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.9,
"text": "+3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.42,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Kelty Hearts",
"sort_key": 10034.65,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"alert_team": "Montrose",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 22.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -22.9,
"hero_label": "Montrose",
"market_prob_pct": 22.9,
"market_team": "Montrose",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Kelty Hearts",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Kelty Hearts), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Kelty Hearts), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8648,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kelty Hearts at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kelty Hearts as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kelty Hearts",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +86.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +86.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +86.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+86.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Kelty Hearts), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0385,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2295,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2506265664160401,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.42,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (23 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 22.9,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 22.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"steam_team": "Montrose",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Kelty Hearts), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Kelty Hearts), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Kelty Hearts), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8648,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kelty Hearts at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kelty Hearts as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kelty Hearts",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +86.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +86.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +86.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+86.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Kelty Hearts), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0385,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2295,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2506265664160401,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.42,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kelty Hearts 1.31 xG vs Montrose 1.29 \u2192 Kelty Hearts 35.6%",
"Market: Montrose ~22.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Montrose odds \u2191 +14.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Kelty Hearts, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 12.69,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Kelty Hearts",
"market_prob": 22.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.21,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.9,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Montrose",
"market_prob": 57.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.9,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 71.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.9,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 28.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.17,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 70.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.17,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 29.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -22.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Montrose",
"market_prob_pct": 57.6,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Montrose"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Montrose\u0027s win probability at 57.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 22.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 22.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kelty Hearts",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+12.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 12.7,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+12.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Kelty Hearts \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kelty Hearts 1.31 xG vs Montrose 1.29 \u2192 Kelty Hearts 35.6%",
"Market: Montrose ~22.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Montrose odds \u2191 +14.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Kelty Hearts, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -22.9,
"hero_label": "Montrose",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Montrose odds lengthened \u2191 +14.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 22.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Montrose",
"largest_gap_pp": -22.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Montrose higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 22.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 12.69,
"edge_pp": 12.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kelty Hearts",
"market_prob_pct": 22.95,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.21,
"edge_pp": 10.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.44,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -22.9,
"edge_pp": -22.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Montrose",
"market_prob_pct": 57.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Montrose (22.9%).",
"However, Montrose has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +14.7%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kelty Hearts, Market \u2192 Montrose, while Montrose odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 62.89,
"closing_odds": 1.59,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 62.89,
"entry_odds": 1.59,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Montrose (14.7%, 7/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.00",
"1.79",
"1.59"
],
"display": "2.02 \u2192 1.70 \u2192 1.95",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 10m",
"pick_team": "Montrose",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.02"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.7,
1.59,
2.0,
1.95
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,13.2 18.7,18.0 37.3,0.0 56.0,2.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.59"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.7,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Montrose odds \u2191 +14.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Montrose",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Montrose odds \u2191 +14.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"open_odds": 1.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Montrose",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"open_odds": 1.7,
"pick_team": "Montrose",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_team_name": "Montrose",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 22.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "montrose",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Montrose",
"away_team_id": 4251,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4251.webp",
"away_team_name": "Montrose",
"away_team_public_id": "2ExFp1bruISb4T",
"away_team_slug": "montrose",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1593623,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Kelty Hearts",
"home_team_id": 6773,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6773.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kelty Hearts",
"home_team_public_id": "4lRZH1FkT3jNZs",
"home_team_slug": "kelty-hearts",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kelty-hearts",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "C\u00fap Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c Scotland",
"league_id": 182,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/182.webp",
"league_name": "C\u00fap Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c Scotland",
"league_public_id": "3nBcrPVpwkKC27",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4R0ufVcgyBQb96",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Kelty",
"venue_name": "New Central Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3941,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0902,
"ev": -0.2275,
"implied_prob": 0.576,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.576,
"draw": 0.1944,
"home": 0.2295
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4859
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"best_odd": 4.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0025,
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.576,
"draw": 0.1944,
"home": 0.2295
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2118
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 3.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0307,
"ev": 0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.2295,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.576,
"draw": 0.1944,
"home": 0.2295
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.2603
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.2816,
"ev": -0.4478,
"implied_prob": 0.6289,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.71,
"edge": 0.0845,
"ev": 0.3979,
"implied_prob": 0.2123,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.99,
"edge": 0.1053,
"ev": 0.4202,
"implied_prob": 0.2506,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0859,
"alpha_yes": 0.1889,
"best_no_odd": 3.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.34,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1617,
"edge_yes": -0.1617,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.547,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0446,
"ev_yes": -0.2697,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.125,
"implied_no": 0.2933,
"implied_yes": 0.7067,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0859,
"best_odd": 3.075,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0446,
"implied_prob": 0.2971,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3107
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1889,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.7029,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.673
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3107,
"p_final_yes": 0.673,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1642,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.35,
"best_under_odd": 3.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.28,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.08,
"edge_over": -0.229,
"edge_under": 0.229,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3493,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1429,
"ev_under": 0.8648,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0405,
"implied_over": 0.711,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7064,
"implied_under": 0.289,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2936,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0368,
"ev": -0.1429,
"implied_prob": 0.7064,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6696
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2936,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3115
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6696,
"p_final_under": 0.3115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8648,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.8648,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.1,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Kelty Hearts), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8648,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kelty Hearts at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kelty Hearts as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kelty Hearts",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +86.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +86.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +86.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+86.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Kelty Hearts), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0385,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2295,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2506265664160401,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.42,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0307,
"ev": 0.0385,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2295,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kelty Hearts"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0859,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.075,
"edge": 0.0136,
"market_prob": 0.2971,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0859,
"best_odd": 3.075,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0446,
"implied_prob": 0.2971,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3107
},
"p_final": 0.3107,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0446,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1889,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.7029,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.673
}
},
"edge": 0.1617,
"ev": 0.547,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"edge": 0.018,
"market_prob": 0.2936,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0368,
"ev": -0.1429,
"implied_prob": 0.7064,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6696
},
"p_final": 0.3115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0405,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2936,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3115
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.229,
"ev": 0.8648,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1593623,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.8648,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.547,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.547,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Montrose",
"home": "Kelty Hearts"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.313576,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.8648,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0385,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2295,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2506265664160401,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.42,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1593623,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:10:47.377305+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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