The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Annan Athletic at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Annan Athletic Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen of the South | 34.2% | 43.9% | -9.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.5% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Annan Athletic | 36.1% | 31.5% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Queen of the South's win probability at 43.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Queen of the South. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Annan Athletic; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Annan Athletic by 9.7 percentage points (45.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:43 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Queen of the South 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Annan Athletic 36.1%
- xG · Queen of the South 1.28 — Annan Athletic 1.32
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Queen of the South 2.06 · Draw 3.69 · Annan Athletic 2.87
- Implied 1X2 · Queen of the South 43.9% · Draw 24.5% · Annan Athletic 31.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:43 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Queen of the South 2.06 · Draw 3.69 · Annan Athletic 2.87
- Implied 1X2 · Queen of the South 43.9% · Draw 24.5% · Annan Athletic 31.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Queen of the South 1–1 Annan Athletic
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "583ef985f4f6ea8db88edd444f4ef41a7fa17212a6a7866862c140ad75fdce2b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Queen of the South or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Queen of the South"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Annan Athletic",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0456,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3154,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.1,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.87
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.87,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Annan Athletic Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.17,
"market_odds": 2.87,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": 1.3,
"value_pct": 3.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Queen of the South or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Queen of the South or Annan Athletic",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Annan Athletic",
"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Queen of the South or Annan Athletic",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Annan Athletic"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 9.2,
"implied_prob": 27.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.69
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Annan Athletic",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.54,
"draw": 24.53,
"home": 43.94
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 18:43:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 18:16:00",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Queen of the South",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.94,
"gap_pp": -9.7,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.53,
"gap_pp": 5.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.54,
"gap_pp": 4.56,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.85,
"gap_pp": -9.65,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.15,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
"closing": 3.69,
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},
{
"closing": 2.87,
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},
{
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},
{
"closing": 2.21,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0171,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4305,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5507
},
"p_final": 0.4476,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1033,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0466,
"under": {
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"ev": -0.0466,
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"p_final": 0.4476
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.5,
"text": "+14.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1448,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10280.32,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0086,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4032,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"best_odd": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4118
},
"p_final": 0.4118,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0306,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0673,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2283,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.1049,
"implied_prob": 0.5968,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.585
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0556,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.6,
"text": "+5.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0556,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10050.04,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0401,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0401,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Annan Athletic",
"sort_key": 1789.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"alert_team": "Annan Athletic",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.7,
"hero_label": "Queen of the South",
"market_prob_pct": 31.5,
"market_team": "Queen of the South",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Annan Athletic",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 97,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Annan Athletic)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Annan Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Annan Athletic at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Annan Athletic as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Annan Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Annan Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.7,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"steam_team": "Annan Athletic",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Annan Athletic).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Annan Athletic)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Annan Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Annan Athletic at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Annan Athletic as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Annan Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Annan Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Queen of the South 1.28 xG vs Annan Athletic 1.32 \u2192 Annan Athletic 36.1%",
"Market: Queen of the South ~31.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Annan Athletic \u2193 -20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Annan Athletic with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.7,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Queen of the South",
"market_prob": 43.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.12,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.57,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Annan Athletic",
"market_prob": 31.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.61,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.61,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.95,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Queen of the South",
"market_prob_pct": 43.94,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Annan Athletic"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Queen of the South\u0027s win probability at 43.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Annan Athletic",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Annan Athletic \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Queen of the South 1.28 xG vs Annan Athletic 1.32 \u2192 Annan Athletic 36.1%",
"Market: Queen of the South ~31.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Annan Athletic \u2193 -20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Annan Athletic with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.7,
"hero_label": "Queen of the South",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Annan Athletic odds shortened \u2193 -20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Annan Athletic, with odds shortening by 20.0%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Queen of the South. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Annan Athletic \u2014 odds shortened by 20.0%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Queen of the South. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Annan Athletic, with odds shortening by 20.0%.",
"Buying interest on Annan Athletic \u2014 odds shortened by 20.0%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Queen of the South above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Annan Athletic has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 20.0%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Annan Athletic."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Queen of the South",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Queen of the South higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.7,
"edge_pp": -9.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Queen of the South",
"market_prob_pct": 43.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.12,
"edge_pp": 5.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.57,
"edge_pp": 4.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Annan Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 31.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Annan Athletic \u2014 odds shortened by 20.0%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Queen of the South (31.5%).",
"However, Annan Athletic has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -20.0%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Annan Athletic, Market \u2192 Queen of the South, Recent sharp money \u2192 Annan Athletic.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.54,
"closing_odds": 2.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.54,
"entry_odds": 2.06,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -27.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -27.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -27.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books synchronized on Annan Athletic (20.0% steam, score 97) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.75",
"3.31",
"2.87"
],
"display": "4.07 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 50m",
"pick_team": "Annan Athletic",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.07"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
2.87,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,15.3",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.87"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Annan Athletic \u2193 -20.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Annan Athletic",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Annan Athletic \u2193 -20.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Annan Athletic",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 97,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Annan Athletic",
"steam_score": 97,
"steam_team_name": "Annan Athletic",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "annan-athletic",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Annan Athletic",
"away_team_id": 6757,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6757.webp",
"away_team_name": "Annan Athletic",
"away_team_public_id": "0iEfADDYf0IlbP",
"away_team_slug": "annan-athletic",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1593606,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Queen of the South",
"home_team_id": 1384,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1384.webp",
"home_team_name": "Queen of the South",
"home_team_public_id": "4vPqGxx1h0B8kk",
"home_team_slug": "queen-of-the-south",
"ht.home_team_slug": "queen-of-the-south",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "C\u00fap Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c Scotland",
"league_id": 182,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/182.webp",
"league_name": "C\u00fap Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c Scotland",
"league_public_id": "3nBcrPVpwkKC27",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4UB0EOCrFhq9FA",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Dumfries",
"venue_name": "Palmerston Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4192,
"best_odd": 2.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.3154,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3154,
"draw": 0.2453,
"home": 0.4394
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3345
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2769,
"best_odd": 3.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.2453,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3154,
"draw": 0.2453,
"home": 0.4394
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2595
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3845,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0373,
"ev": -0.1717,
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3154,
"draw": 0.2453,
"home": 0.4394
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4021
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.87,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": 0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.3484,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.69,
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.0947,
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.143,
"ev": -0.2947,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.166,
"alpha_yes": 0.2283,
"best_no_odd": 2.32,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0495,
"edge_yes": -0.0495,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0556,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0673,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1049,
"implied_no": 0.4055,
"implied_yes": 0.5945,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"best_odd": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4118
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2283,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.1049,
"implied_prob": 0.5968,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.585
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4118,
"p_final_yes": 0.585,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.215,
"alpha_under": 0.1955,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.21,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.13,
"edge_over": -0.0861,
"edge_under": 0.0861,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1134,
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0466,
"implied_over": 0.5681,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5695,
"implied_under": 0.4319,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4305,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5507
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0466,
"implied_prob": 0.4305,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4476
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5507,
"p_final_under": 0.4476,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1448,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Annan Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Annan Athletic at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Annan Athletic as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Annan Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Annan Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.3154,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Annan Athletic"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0086,
"market_prob": 0.4032,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"best_odd": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4118
},
"p_final": 0.4118,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0673,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2283,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0118,
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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"disagreement_label": "Normal",
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"raw_edge_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1593606,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T18:43:26.079358+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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