AI correctly predicted the Tokat Belediye Plevnespor win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
B-
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Tokat Belediye Plevnespor Tokat Belediye Plevnespor ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 32.4% | 34.6% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.7% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Tokat Belediye Plevnespor | 38.0% | 37.8% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Tokat Belediye Plevnespor win 0–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Tokat Belediye Plevnespor win 0–3).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Tokat Belediye Plevnespor 38.0%
- xG · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1.24 — Tokat Belediye Plevnespor 1.36
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 2.60 · Draw 3.25 · Tokat Belediye Plevnespor 2.38
- Implied 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 34.6% · Draw 27.7% · Tokat Belediye Plevnespor 37.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 2.60 · Draw 3.25 · Tokat Belediye Plevnespor 2.38
- Implied 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 34.6% · Draw 27.7% · Tokat Belediye Plevnespor 37.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tokat Belediye Plevnespor win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
89/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Tokat Belediye Plevnespor win · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 0–3 Tokat Belediye Plevnespor
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"disagreement_level": "normal",
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/4",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/4 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"alert_team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.2,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
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},
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},
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"decision_strength": 6.1,
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"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tokat Belediye Plevnespor at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tokat Belediye Plevnespor as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Belediye Plevnespor).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0949,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.18,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.18,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"steam_team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Belediye Plevnespor).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Belediye Plevnespor)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Belediye Plevnespor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tokat Belediye Plevnespor at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tokat Belediye Plevnespor as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Belediye Plevnespor).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0949,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor 1.24 xG vs Tokat Belediye Plevnespor 1.36 \u2192 Tokat Belediye Plevnespor 38.0%",
"Market: Tokat Belediye Plevnespor ~37.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor odds \u2191 +23.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Tokat Belediye Plevnespor with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.18,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"market_prob": 34.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.93,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.24,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor",
"market_prob": 37.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.19,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.19,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.29,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.29,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"market_prob_pct": 34.57,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.18,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.2,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor 1.24 xG vs Tokat Belediye Plevnespor 1.36 \u2192 Tokat Belediye Plevnespor 38.0%",
"Market: Tokat Belediye Plevnespor ~37.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor odds \u2191 +23.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Tokat Belediye Plevnespor with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.18,
"hero_label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor odds lengthened \u2191 +23.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor (\u2191 +23.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/4) supports the current market view on Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.18,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.18,
"edge_pp": -2.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"market_prob_pct": 34.57,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.93,
"edge_pp": 1.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.24,
"edge_pp": 0.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor",
"market_prob_pct": 37.77,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Tokat Belediye Plevnespor (37.8%).",
"However, Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +23.8%, 3/4) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Tokat Belediye Plevnespor \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
"closing_odds": 2.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
"entry_odds": 2.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.9
}
],
"books_total": 4,
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 23.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"3/4 books lengthened Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor together (23.8% drift, score 80) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.60",
"2.35",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.62 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"pick_team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor odds \u2191 +23.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor odds \u2191 +23.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_team_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor",
"away_team_id": 21035,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21035.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor",
"away_team_public_id": "0YbZZxvGzejdtM",
"away_team_slug": "tokat-bld-plevnespor",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1590377,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"home_team_id": 24957,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24957.webp",
"home_team_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"home_team_public_id": "0mDRVdQTcOyQiN",
"home_team_slug": "yalova-yesilovaspor",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "3. Lig - Nh\u00f3m 1 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3",
"league_id": 552,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/552.webp",
"league_name": "3. Lig - Nh\u00f3m 1 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3",
"league_public_id": "0mfLQrCVuq1jL4",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2sbWrYcUFHfrr1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4482,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3777,
"draw": 0.2766,
"home": 0.3457
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3789
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2913,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0828,
"implied_prob": 0.2766,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3777,
"draw": 0.2766,
"home": 0.3457
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2822
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4351,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.3457,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3777,
"draw": 0.2766,
"home": 0.3457
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3362
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": -0.0398,
"ev": -0.0948,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0609,
"ev": -0.1583,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1595,
"alpha_yes": 0.145,
"best_no_odd": 1.81,
"best_yes_odd": 1.86,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0529,
"edge_yes": 0.0529,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1746,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"ev_yes": 0.0118,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0723,
"implied_no": 0.5089,
"implied_yes": 0.4911,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1595,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5089,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5005
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4911,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4988
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5005,
"p_final_yes": 0.4988,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2077,
"alpha_under": 0.2285,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.14,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.0519,
"edge_under": -0.0519,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0552,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0969,
"implied_over": 0.4301,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4309,
"implied_under": 0.5699,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5691,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4415
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5575
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4415,
"p_final_under": 0.5575,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Belediye Plevnespor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tokat Belediye Plevnespor at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tokat Belediye Plevnespor as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Belediye Plevnespor).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0949,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0077,
"market_prob": 0.4911,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1595,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5089,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5005
},
"p_final": 0.4988,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0723,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4911,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4988
}
},
"edge": 0.0529,
"ev": 0.0118,
"implied_prob": 0.4911,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.4309,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4415
},
"p_final": 0.4415,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0552,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5575
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0519,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1590377,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tokat Belediye Plevnespor",
"home": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0949,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1590377,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T13:58:37.258648+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Yalova Yeşilovaspor & Tokat Belediye Plevnespor!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
3. Lig - Nhóm 1 Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orduspor 1967 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Pazarspor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tokat Belediye Plevnespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Düzcespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Gölcükspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Galata | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Silivrispor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | İnkılapspor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Tuzlaspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orduspor 1967 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 | Pazarspor | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Tokat Belediye Plevnespor | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 5 |
| 5 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | Gölcükspor | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Düzcespor | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | İnkılapspor | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 |
| 13 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 15 | Galata | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Tuzlaspor | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Silivrispor | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
