AI correctly predicted the Bsk Bijelo Brdo win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo Bsk Bijelo Brdo ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 37.5% | 36.3% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.4% | +0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Jadran LP | 32.9% | 34.3% | -1.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Bsk Bijelo Brdo win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bsk Bijelo Brdo win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Jadran LP 32.9%
- xG · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.35 — Jadran LP 1.25
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2.49 · Draw 3.10 · Jadran LP 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 36.4% · Draw 29.2% · Jadran LP 34.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2.52 · Draw 3.12 · Jadran LP 2.67
- Implied 1X2 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 36.3% · Draw 29.4% · Jadran LP 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bsk Bijelo Brdo win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
92/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.67
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1–0 Jadran LP
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0705,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.0,
"text": "-7.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0705,
"max_ev_display": {
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},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0532,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"sort_key": 1782.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.4,
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"hero_edge_pp": -1.45,
"hero_label": "Jadran LP",
"market_prob_pct": 36.3,
"market_team": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bsk Bijelo Brdo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0705,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0532,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.45,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bsk Bijelo Brdo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0705,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0532,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.35 xG vs Jadran LP 1.25 \u2192 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 37.5%",
"Market: Bsk Bijelo Brdo ~36.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Bsk Bijelo Brdo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bsk Bijelo Brdo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"market_prob": 36.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.26,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.45,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Jadran LP",
"market_prob": 34.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.89,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.89,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -1.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Jadran LP",
"market_prob_pct": 34.3,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.35 xG vs Jadran LP 1.25 \u2192 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 37.5%",
"Market: Bsk Bijelo Brdo ~36.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Bsk Bijelo Brdo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bsk Bijelo Brdo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.45,
"hero_label": "Jadran LP",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Bsk Bijelo Brdo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Bsk Bijelo Brdo.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Bsk Bijelo Brdo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Bsk Bijelo Brdo."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Bsk Bijelo Brdo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Bsk Bijelo Brdo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Jadran LP",
"largest_gap_pp": -1.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.2,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"market_prob_pct": 36.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.26,
"edge_pp": 0.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.45,
"edge_pp": -1.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Jadran LP",
"market_prob_pct": 34.3,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Bsk Bijelo Brdo.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bsk Bijelo Brdo (36.3%).",
"Bsk Bijelo Brdo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.45,
"closing_odds": 2.67,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.45,
"entry_odds": 2.67,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_team_name": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Jadran LP",
"away_team_id": 5708,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5708.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jadran LP",
"away_team_public_id": "15CohAs5QnTrGj",
"away_team_slug": "jadran-lp",
"country_code": "HR",
"country_display_name": "Croatia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
"country_id": 39,
"country_name": "Croatia",
"fixture_id": 1590146,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Croatia",
"home_team_display_name": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"home_team_id": 1487,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1487.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"home_team_public_id": "0VltivieZi7TFQ",
"home_team_slug": "bsk-bijelo-brdo",
"league_country": "Croatia",
"league_country_display": "Croatia",
"league_display_name": "First NL Croatia",
"league_id": 211,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/211.webp",
"league_name": "First NL Croatia",
"league_public_id": "1oWaYwo2RdS6hN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 15:00:00",
"public_id": "4NLMa4vr1MvUnR",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Bijelo Brdo",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4403,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.343,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.343,
"draw": 0.2935,
"home": 0.3634
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3367
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2991,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0006,
"ev": -0.0822,
"implied_prob": 0.2935,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.343,
"draw": 0.2935,
"home": 0.3634
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2942
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4417,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.343,
"draw": 0.2935,
"home": 0.3634
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3688
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": -0.0458,
"ev": -0.1224,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": -0.0249,
"ev": -0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.3968,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2137,
"alpha_yes": 0.2351,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0389,
"edge_yes": 0.0389,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1355,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0976,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0702,
"implied_no": 0.4939,
"implied_yes": 0.5061,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.4884,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4813
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2351,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.5116,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5194
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4813,
"p_final_yes": 0.5194,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2145,
"alpha_under": 0.2359,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.675,
"edge_over": 0.0335,
"edge_under": -0.0335,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0666,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0925,
"implied_over": 0.4485,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4509,
"implied_under": 0.5515,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5491,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.4509,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4576
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2359,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0925,
"implied_prob": 0.5491,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5418
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4576,
"p_final_under": 0.5418,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.041,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bsk Bijelo Brdo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0705,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0532,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.041,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2351,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0079,
"market_prob": 0.5116,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.4884,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4813
},
"p_final": 0.5194,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0702,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2351,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.5116,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5194
}
},
"edge": 0.0389,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.4509,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.4509,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4576
},
"p_final": 0.4576,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0666,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2359,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0925,
"implied_prob": 0.5491,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5418
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0335,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4485,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1590146,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.041,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jadran LP",
"home": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0705,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0532,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1590146,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T14:59:28.861243+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Bsk Bijelo Brdo & Jadran LP!
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Đăng ký ngay
First NL Croatia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 2 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Croatia Zmijavci | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | HNK Cibalia | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Segesta Sisak | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Dugopolje | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Vukovar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Karlovac 1919 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Hrvace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Kustosija | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Opatija | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Vukovar | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Croatia Zmijavci | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Sesvete | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Dugopolje | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Segesta Sisak | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Karlovac 1919 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | Opatija | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Hrvace | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | HNK Cibalia | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Kustosija | 7 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
