The model missed the final outcome (Teuta Durrës win 0–2).
The model had projected Vllaznia Shkodër at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Vllaznia Shkodër Teuta Durrës ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vllaznia Shkodër | 40.4% | 41.3% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 29.3% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Teuta Durrës | 30.1% | 29.3% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Teuta Durrës win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Teuta Durrës win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vllaznia Shkodër 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Teuta Durrës 30.1%
- xG · Vllaznia Shkodër 1.41 — Teuta Durrës 1.19
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vllaznia Shkodër 2.20 · Draw 3.10 · Teuta Durrës 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Vllaznia Shkodër 41.3% · Draw 29.3% · Teuta Durrës 29.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vllaznia Shkodër 2.20 · Draw 3.10 · Teuta Durrës 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Vllaznia Shkodër 41.3% · Draw 29.3% · Teuta Durrës 29.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Teuta Durrës win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
79/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
95/100
Betting Confidence
82/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.2
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Teuta Durrës win · Vllaznia Shkodër 0–2 Teuta Durrës
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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}
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},
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.5
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"match_winner": {
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"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": -10.9,
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"odds": 2.2
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 16:29:42",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 16:02:21",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"raw_pct": -19.9,
"text": "-19.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.084,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.4,
"text": "+8.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.084,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10075.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.099,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.9,
"text": "-9.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0835,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.3,
"text": "-8.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1094,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"sort_key": 1779.125,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"alert_team": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -0.91,
"hero_label": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"market_prob_pct": 41.3,
"market_team": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 96,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "96 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr).",
"Decision strength: 8.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 92,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.099,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1094,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 92,
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.91,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 0.91,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"steam_team": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 96,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "96 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr).",
"Decision strength: 8.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 92,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.099,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1094,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr 1.41 xG vs Teuta Durr\u00ebs 1.19 \u2192 Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr 40.4%",
"Market: Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr ~41.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Teuta Durr\u00ebs odds \u2191 +18.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.91,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"market_prob": 41.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.11,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.81,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"market_prob": 29.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.52,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.52,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.05,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.05,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -0.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"market_prob_pct": 41.33,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 0.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 92,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr 1.41 xG vs Teuta Durr\u00ebs 1.19 \u2192 Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr 40.4%",
"Market: Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr ~41.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Teuta Durr\u00ebs odds \u2191 +18.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -0.91,
"hero_label": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs odds lengthened \u2191 +18.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Teuta Durr\u00ebs has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Teuta Durr\u00ebs \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Teuta Durr\u00ebs has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Teuta Durr\u00ebs \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Teuta Durr\u00ebs has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Teuta Durr\u00ebs."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"largest_gap_pp": -0.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.91,
"edge_pp": -0.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"market_prob_pct": 41.33,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.11,
"edge_pp": 0.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.33,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.81,
"edge_pp": 0.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"market_prob_pct": 29.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Teuta Durr\u00ebs \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr (41.3%).",
"However, Teuta Durr\u00ebs has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.3%, 5/5) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.45,
"closing_odds": 2.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.45,
"entry_odds": 2.2,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/5 books lengthened Teuta Durr\u00ebs together (18.3% drift, score 74) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.86",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.20 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"pick_team": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Teuta Durr\u00ebs odds \u2191 +18.3% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Teuta Durr\u00ebs odds \u2191 +18.3% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_team_name": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 0.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "teuta-durres",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"away_team_id": 3320,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3320.webp",
"away_team_name": "Teuta Durr\u00ebs",
"away_team_public_id": "5z2hfdfNKRwMtn",
"away_team_slug": "teuta-durres",
"country_code": "AL",
"country_display_name": "Albania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/al.svg",
"country_id": 1,
"country_name": "Albania",
"fixture_id": 1590063,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Albania",
"home_team_display_name": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"home_team_id": 3339,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3339.webp",
"home_team_name": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"home_team_public_id": "3onNNwQEHSSDjk",
"home_team_slug": "vllaznia-shkoder",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vllaznia-shkoder",
"league_country": "Albania",
"league_country_display": "Albania",
"league_display_name": "Superliga Albania",
"league_id": 310,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/310.webp",
"league_name": "Superliga Albania",
"league_public_id": "0bXFqrsPXH3qkn",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 16:30:00",
"public_id": "1cDfbZQT1XEyCf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Loro Borici Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2965,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0835,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2933,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4133
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.2957
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2997,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2933,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4133
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4442,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2933,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4133
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4095
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0285,
"ev": -0.0884,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0498,
"ev": -0.1095,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2222,
"alpha_yes": 0.202,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0705,
"edge_yes": 0.0705,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1985,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1161,
"ev_yes": 0.084,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0636,
"implied_no": 0.5285,
"implied_yes": 0.4715,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2222,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1161,
"implied_prob": 0.526,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5109
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0636,
"implied_prob": 0.474,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4877
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5109,
"p_final_yes": 0.4877,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1579,
"alpha_under": 0.2172,
"best_over_odd": 2.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.54,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.27,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.515,
"edge_over": 0.0852,
"edge_under": -0.0852,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0621,
"ev_under": -0.2023,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1183,
"implied_over": 0.3968,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4003,
"implied_under": 0.6032,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5997,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.4003,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4132
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2172,
"best_odd": 1.515,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.5997,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.582
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4132,
"p_final_under": 0.582,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 96,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "96 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr).",
"Decision strength: 8.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 92,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.099,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1094,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.474,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2222,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1161,
"implied_prob": 0.526,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5109
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},
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},
"match_id": 1590063,
"match_regime": {
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"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
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},
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"probabilities": {
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"reason_codes": [
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],
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"teams": {
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"home": "Vllaznia Shkod\u00ebr"
},
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},
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"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1590063,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T16:29:44.507184+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Vllaznia Shkodër & Teuta Durrës!
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Đăng ký ngay
Superliga Albania — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Laçi | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | AF Elbasani | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Tirana | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Partizani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Vora | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Skënderbeu Korçë | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Teuta Durrës | 5 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 13 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 5 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 5 | AF Elbasani | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Laçi | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Partizani | 5 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | Skënderbeu Korçë | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Vora | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 |
