The model missed the final outcome (Maidenhead win 0–4).
The model had projected Chesham United at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Chesham United Maidenhead ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesham United | 35.2% | 40.7% | -5.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.2% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Maidenhead | 35.2% | 34.1% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Chesham United's win probability at 40.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Maidenhead win 0–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Chesham United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Chesham United; match finished Maidenhead
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Chesham United by 5.5 percentage points (40.7% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Chesham United 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Maidenhead 35.2%
- xG · Chesham United 1.30 — Maidenhead 1.30
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Chesham United 2.28 · Draw 3.68 · Maidenhead 2.72
- Implied 1X2 · Chesham United 40.7% · Draw 25.2% · Maidenhead 34.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Chesham United 2.28 · Draw 3.68 · Maidenhead 2.72
- Implied 1X2 · Chesham United 40.7% · Draw 25.2% · Maidenhead 34.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Maidenhead win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
72/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.28
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Maidenhead win · Chesham United 0–4 Maidenhead
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6042bcde8d176101c57da212f34ec40150e960a4932bae9ee350edf1fe66b565",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Chesham United or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Chesham United"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chesham United",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0551,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4069,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.28
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.28,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Chesham United Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.46,
"market_odds": 2.28,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 7.8,
"prob_edge": -8.6,
"value_pct": -19.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Chesham United or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chesham United or Maidenhead",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Maidenhead",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Chesham United or Maidenhead",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Chesham United"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.9,
"implied_prob": 27.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.68
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Maidenhead",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.11,
"draw": 25.21,
"home": 40.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:06:41",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:44:45",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Chesham United",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.69,
"gap_pp": -5.51,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.21,
"gap_pp": 4.44,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.11,
"gap_pp": 1.07,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.17,
"gap_pp": -12.97,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.83,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.68,
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},
{
"closing": 2.72,
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},
{
"closing": 1.53,
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"implied_closing_pct": 61.17,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.41,
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"implied_closing_pct": 38.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.7,
"ev": -0.055,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1514,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.016,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4122,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.5878,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5657
},
"p_final": 0.4283,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1448,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1514,
"best_odd": 2.21,
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"ev": -0.0536,
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"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4283
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2484,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.8,
"text": "+24.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2484,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10373.56,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1608,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0114,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.384,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1608,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3954
},
"p_final": 0.3954,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0875,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0549,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2211,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6003
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.8,
"text": "+13.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1552,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.5,
"text": "-15.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1375,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10123.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1242,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.4,
"text": "-12.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0266,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1979,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chesham United",
"sort_key": 1793.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"alert_team": "Maidenhead",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.52,
"hero_label": "Chesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"market_team": "Chesham United",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Chesham United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2484,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2484,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chesham United at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chesham United as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chesham United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1242,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1979,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.52,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.52,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"steam_team": "Maidenhead",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2484,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2484,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chesham United at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chesham United as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chesham United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1242,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1979,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chesham United 1.30 xG vs Maidenhead 1.30 \u2192 Chesham United 35.2%",
"Market: Chesham United ~40.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Maidenhead \u2193 -3.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chesham United, but sharp money moved toward Maidenhead.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.52,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Chesham United",
"market_prob": 40.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.06,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Maidenhead",
"market_prob": 34.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.66,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.66,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.92,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.92,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Chesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 40.69,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Maidenhead"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Chesham United\u0027s win probability at 40.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.52,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chesham United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chesham United 1.30 xG vs Maidenhead 1.30 \u2192 Chesham United 35.2%",
"Market: Chesham United ~40.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Maidenhead \u2193 -3.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chesham United, but sharp money moved toward Maidenhead.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.52,
"hero_label": "Chesham United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Maidenhead odds shortened \u2193 -3.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Maidenhead, with odds shortening by 3.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Chesham United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Maidenhead \u2014 odds shortened by 3.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Chesham United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Maidenhead, with odds shortening by 3.7%.",
"Buying interest on Maidenhead \u2014 odds shortened by 3.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Chesham United above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Maidenhead has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.7%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Maidenhead."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.52,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Chesham United",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Chesham United higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.52,
"edge_pp": -5.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 40.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.44,
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.21,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.06,
"edge_pp": 1.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Maidenhead",
"market_prob_pct": 34.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Maidenhead \u2014 odds shortened by 3.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chesham United (40.7%).",
"Maidenhead has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.7%, 7/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chesham United, Market \u2192 Chesham United, Recent sharp money \u2192 Maidenhead.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
"closing_odds": 2.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.86,
"entry_odds": 2.28,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 57h 19m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Maidenhead (3.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.72",
"2.66",
"2.60"
],
"display": "2.95 \u2192 2.60 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 57h 19m",
"pick_team": "Maidenhead",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.95"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
2.72,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.72"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 7/8 sportsbooks on Maidenhead",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Maidenhead",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Market moved toward Maidenhead while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Maidenhead",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Maidenhead",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Maidenhead",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "maidenhead",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Maidenhead",
"away_team_id": 1838,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1838.webp",
"away_team_name": "Maidenhead",
"away_team_public_id": "2gwrbGYWiMV0Pm",
"away_team_slug": "maidenhead",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1588367,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Chesham United",
"home_team_id": 4702,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4702.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chesham United",
"home_team_public_id": "5HOPEDAO6k94xU",
"home_team_slug": "chesham-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chesham-united",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League - South",
"league_id": 51,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/51.webp",
"league_name": "National League - South",
"league_public_id": "1CLb0HhHXqBxus",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1sxnwSiqnsaGGL",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Chesham",
"venue_name": "The Meadow"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4428,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.3411,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3411,
"draw": 0.2521,
"home": 0.4069
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3458
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.28,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0266,
"implied_prob": 0.2521,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3411,
"draw": 0.2521,
"home": 0.4069
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2645
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4128,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0227,
"ev": -0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3411,
"draw": 0.2521,
"home": 0.4069
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3841
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": 0.0909,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": -0.0868,
"ev": -0.198,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1608,
"alpha_yes": 0.2211,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0692,
"edge_yes": -0.0692,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0549,
"ev_yes": -0.1552,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1056,
"implied_no": 0.3858,
"implied_yes": 0.6142,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1608,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3954
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2211,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6003
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3954,
"p_final_yes": 0.6003,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2082,
"alpha_under": 0.1514,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.41,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.21,
"edge_over": -0.1066,
"edge_under": 0.1066,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1231,
"ev_under": 0.2484,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"implied_over": 0.5886,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5878,
"implied_under": 0.4114,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4122,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.5878,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5657
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1514,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4122,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4283
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5657,
"p_final_under": 0.4283,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2484,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2484,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2484,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2484,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2484,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chesham United at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chesham United as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chesham United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1242,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1979,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0227,
"ev": -0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chesham United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1608,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0114,
"market_prob": 0.384,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1608,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3954
},
"p_final": 0.3954,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0549,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2211,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6003
}
},
"edge": 0.0692,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3858,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1514,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.016,
"market_prob": 0.4122,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.5878,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5657
},
"p_final": 0.4283,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1514,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4122,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4283
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1066,
"ev": 0.2484,
"implied_prob": 0.4114,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1588367,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2484,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3858,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3858,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Maidenhead",
"home": "Chesham United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.09007,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2484,
"implied_prob": 0.4114,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1242,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1979,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1588367,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:06:43.953130+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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National League - South — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone United | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Billericay Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Truro City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Dover | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Torquay United | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 13 | Chesham United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Horsham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Maidenhead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 18 | Braintree | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 20 | Farnborough | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond Borough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 23 | Slough Town | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 14 |
| 2 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Billericay Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Maidstone United | 9 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 17 |
| 6 | Salisbury | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesham United | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 12 |
| 9 | Dover | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Torquay United | 9 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 | Braintree | 8 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Truro City | 8 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 |
| 13 | Farnham Town | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 14 | Hampton & Richmond Borough | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 16 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 17 | Horsham | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Slough Town | 8 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 3 |
| 19 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Maidenhead | 9 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 22 | Farnborough | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 1 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
