The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Bedford Town at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Bedford Town Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedford Town | 35.6% | 35.7% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.8% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Hereford | 34.7% | 40.5% | -5.8 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.8%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Bedford Town; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Bedford Town by 5.9 percentage points (29.7% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bedford Town 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Hereford 34.7%
- xG · Bedford Town 1.31 — Hereford 1.29
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:42 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bedford Town 2.60 · Draw 3.91 · Hereford 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Bedford Town 35.7% · Draw 23.8% · Hereford 40.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Bedford Town 2.60 · Draw 3.91 · Hereford 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Bedford Town 35.7% · Draw 23.8% · Hereford 40.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
24/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.91
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Bedford Town 1–1 Hereford
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "647114600a8a93c9fa56cc1df3959d871c9e812b01792fa91b6012b5f6ae0317",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Hereford",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Hereford"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bedford Town",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": -0.0012,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 2.6
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Home",
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"overround": 7.7,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
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{
"away": 1,
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"label": "0-1",
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{
"away": 1,
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},
{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bedford Town or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Hereford",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bedford Town or Hereford",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bedford Town"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.91
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 23.75,
"home": 35.71
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:04:48",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:42:47",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bedford Town",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.75,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
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{
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{
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
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"text": "-21.4%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+19.1%"
},
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0094,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.092,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10082.8,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0729,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0081,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.8,
"text": "-0.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Bedford Town",
"sort_key": 1797.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +19.1%",
"alert_team": "Hereford",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.9,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"market_team": "Hereford",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Bedford Town",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bedford Town)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bedford Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bedford Town at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bedford Town as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bedford Town",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bedford Town).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0729,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.9,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +19.1%",
"steam_team": "Hereford",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bedford Town).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bedford Town)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bedford Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bedford Town at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bedford Town as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bedford Town",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bedford Town).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0729,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bedford Town 1.31 xG vs Hereford 1.29 \u2192 Bedford Town 35.6%",
"Market: Hereford ~35.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Hereford odds \u2191 +19.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bedford Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.07,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Bedford Town",
"market_prob": 35.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.9,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.84,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Hereford",
"market_prob": 40.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.6,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.6,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.55,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.55,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.75,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Hereford"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.8%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bedford Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.1,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Bedford Town \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bedford Town 1.31 xG vs Hereford 1.29 \u2192 Bedford Town 35.6%",
"Market: Hereford ~35.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Hereford odds \u2191 +19.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bedford Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.9,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Hereford odds lengthened \u2191 +19.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Hereford has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Drift away from Hereford \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Hereford has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Hereford \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Hereford has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Hereford."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.9,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.07,
"edge_pp": -0.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bedford Town",
"market_prob_pct": 35.71,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.9,
"edge_pp": 5.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.75,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.84,
"edge_pp": -5.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hereford",
"market_prob_pct": 40.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Hereford \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hereford (35.7%).",
"However, Hereford has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +19.1%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bedford Town, Market \u2192 Hereford, while Hereford odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.58,
"closing_odds": 3.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.58,
"entry_odds": 3.91,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/8 books lengthened Hereford together (19.1% drift, score 74) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.62",
"2.41",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.63 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 30m",
"pick_team": "Hereford",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.63"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.29,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,14.1 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Hereford odds \u2191 +19.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Hereford",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Hereford odds \u2191 +19.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.1%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Hereford",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.1%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Hereford",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_team_name": "Hereford",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hereford",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Hereford",
"away_team_id": 4692,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4692.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hereford",
"away_team_public_id": "1ZFMAWfVOZ8yNh",
"away_team_slug": "hereford",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1587814,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Bedford Town",
"home_team_id": 7616,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7616.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bedford Town",
"home_team_public_id": "5T55RDoJ9USosA",
"home_team_slug": "bedford-town",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bedford-town",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League - North",
"league_id": 50,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/50.webp",
"league_name": "National League - North",
"league_public_id": "2WdcML7oJFLxtC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "31KcQzRy65iH64",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Bedford",
"venue_name": "The Eyrie"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4107,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.1262,
"implied_prob": 0.4054,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4054,
"draw": 0.2375,
"home": 0.3571
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3816
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2733,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.2375,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4054,
"draw": 0.2375,
"home": 0.3571
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2537
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4492,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0005,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4054,
"draw": 0.2375,
"home": 0.3571
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3566
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.0894,
"ev": -0.2047,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": 0.041,
"ev": 0.1604,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0287,
"ev": -0.0746,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1646,
"alpha_yes": 0.2263,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0555,
"edge_yes": -0.0555,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0693,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1103,
"implied_no": 0.3995,
"implied_yes": 0.6005,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1646,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0693,
"implied_prob": 0.3979,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4073
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2263,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.1103,
"implied_prob": 0.6021,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5892
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4073,
"p_final_yes": 0.5892,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2136,
"alpha_under": 0.1942,
"best_over_odd": 1.63,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.096,
"edge_under": 0.096,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2143,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1139,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0445,
"implied_over": 0.578,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5733,
"implied_under": 0.422,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4267,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4444
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5538,
"p_final_under": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bedford Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bedford Town at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bedford Town as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bedford Town",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bedford Town).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0729,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0005,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bedford Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1646,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.285,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.3979,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1646,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0693,
"implied_prob": 0.3979,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4073
},
"p_final": 0.4073,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0693,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2263,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.1103,
"implied_prob": 0.6021,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5892
}
},
"edge": 0.0555,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"p_final": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0445,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4444
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.096,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.422,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1587814,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hereford",
"home": "Bedford Town"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.422,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0729,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1587814,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:04:50.877415+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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National League - North — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Spalding United | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | South Shields | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Buxton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Bedford Town | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Chester | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Morecambe | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Merthyr Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | King's Lynn Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 13 | Harborough Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 15 | Scarborough Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Chorley | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 17 | Marine | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | AFC Telford United | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Hednesford Town | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 20 | Southport | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 21 | Brackley Town | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 22 | Radcliffe | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 23 | Darlington 1883 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 22 |
| 2 | Buxton | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 | Hebburn Town | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 17 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Chorley | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Spalding United | 9 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 9 | Morecambe | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Hednesford Town | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Macclesfield | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 9 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 14 | Southport | 9 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Darlington 1883 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Marine | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Chester | 9 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 19 | South Shields | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 17 |
| 20 | Worksop Town | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
| 21 | Spennymoor Town | 9 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 |
| 22 | AFC Telford United | 9 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 23 | Radcliffe | 9 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 24 | Brackley Town | 8 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
