The model missed the final outcome (King's Lynn Town win 0–5).
The model had projected AFC Telford United at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 AFC Telford United King's Lynn Town ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Telford United | 39.5% | 44.1% | -4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.2% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| King's Lynn Town | 31.0% | 29.7% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là King's Lynn Town win 0–5.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned AFC Telford United; match finished King's Lynn Town
Market lesson
The full-time result was King's Lynn Town win 0–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · AFC Telford United 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · King's Lynn Town 31.0%
- xG · AFC Telford United 1.39 — King's Lynn Town 1.21
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:42 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · AFC Telford United 2.10 · Draw 3.54 · King's Lynn Town 3.12
- Implied 1X2 · AFC Telford United 44.1% · Draw 26.2% · King's Lynn Town 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · AFC Telford United 2.10 · Draw 3.54 · King's Lynn Town 3.12
- Implied 1X2 · AFC Telford United 44.1% · Draw 26.2% · King's Lynn Town 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result King's Lynn Town win · 0–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
76/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.1
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
King's Lynn Town win · AFC Telford United 0–5 King's Lynn Town
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "990f294576184d7cac955dbb26be5d69a593ab85195eb61216c9f2a0dc3a0b6f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3103,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
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"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"home_win_prob": 0.3946,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or King\u0027s Lynn Town",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "King\u0027s Lynn Town"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "AFC Telford United",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0463,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 2.1
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.27,
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"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": -8.1,
"value_pct": -17.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
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"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
"away": 1,
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},
{
"away": 2,
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "AFC Telford United or Draw",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "AFC Telford United or King\u0027s Lynn Town",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or King\u0027s Lynn Town",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "AFC Telford United or King\u0027s Lynn Town",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "AFC Telford United"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 4.4,
"implied_prob": 28.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.5,
"odds": 3.54
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "King\u0027s Lynn Town",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.7,
"draw": 26.18,
"home": 44.12
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:04:42",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:42:40",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "AFC Telford United",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.12,
"gap_pp": -4.63,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.18,
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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"movement_negligible": true,
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
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},
"top5": [
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0155,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
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"over": {
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"implied_prob": 0.5597,
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},
"p_final": 0.4557,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.8,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -18.1,
"text": "-18.1%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+11.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1189,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10257.01,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2106,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.009,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4144,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2106,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0727,
"implied_prob": 0.4144,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4234
},
"p_final": 0.4234,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0008,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0727,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.1077,
"implied_prob": 0.5856,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5757
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0511,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0932,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0511,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10045.99,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1141,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.4,
"text": "-11.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0401,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1707,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "AFC Telford United",
"sort_key": 1789.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"alert_team": "AFC Telford United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.66,
"hero_label": "AFC Telford United",
"market_prob_pct": 44.1,
"market_team": "AFC Telford United",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "AFC Telford United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (AFC Telford United)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (AFC Telford United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AFC Telford United at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AFC Telford United as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AFC Telford United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (AFC Telford United).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1141,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1707,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.66,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"steam_team": "AFC Telford United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (AFC Telford United).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (AFC Telford United)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (AFC Telford United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AFC Telford United at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AFC Telford United as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AFC Telford United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (AFC Telford United).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1141,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1707,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AFC Telford United 1.39 xG vs King\u0027s Lynn Town 1.21 \u2192 AFC Telford United 39.5%",
"Market: AFC Telford United ~44.1% implied",
"Market Steam: AFC Telford United \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean AFC Telford United with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.66,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "AFC Telford United",
"market_prob": 44.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.33,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.33,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "King\u0027s Lynn Town",
"market_prob": 29.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.64,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.64,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.02,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.02,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "AFC Telford United",
"market_prob_pct": 44.12,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "AFC Telford United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "AFC Telford United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "AFC Telford United \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AFC Telford United 1.39 xG vs King\u0027s Lynn Town 1.21 \u2192 AFC Telford United 39.5%",
"Market: AFC Telford United ~44.1% implied",
"Market Steam: AFC Telford United \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean AFC Telford United with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.66,
"hero_label": "AFC Telford United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "AFC Telford United odds shortened \u2193 -6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on AFC Telford United.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on AFC Telford United."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on AFC Telford United (\u2193 -6.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on AFC Telford United."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "AFC Telford United",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.66,
"edge_pp": -4.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "AFC Telford United",
"market_prob_pct": 44.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.33,
"edge_pp": 3.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.18,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.33,
"edge_pp": 1.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "King\u0027s Lynn Town",
"market_prob_pct": 29.7,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on AFC Telford United.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers AFC Telford United (44.1%).",
"However, AFC Telford United has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -6.7%, 7/8).",
"AFC Telford United \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.62,
"closing_odds": 2.1,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.62,
"entry_odds": 2.1,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on AFC Telford United (6.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.25",
"2.17",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.30 \u2192 2.03 \u2192 2.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 30m",
"pick_team": "AFC Telford United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.03"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 7/8 sportsbooks on AFC Telford United",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "AFC Telford United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "AFC Telford United",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "AFC Telford United",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "AFC Telford United",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "king-s-lynn-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "King\u0027s Lynn Town",
"away_team_id": 8655,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8655.webp",
"away_team_name": "King\u0027s Lynn Town",
"away_team_public_id": "4FDa9k9n7NOzeV",
"away_team_slug": "king-s-lynn-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1587813,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "AFC Telford United",
"home_team_id": 4688,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4688.webp",
"home_team_name": "AFC Telford United",
"home_team_public_id": "0v5anfQn53QRAM",
"home_team_slug": "afc-telford-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "afc-telford-united",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League - North",
"league_id": 50,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/50.webp",
"league_name": "National League - North",
"league_public_id": "2WdcML7oJFLxtC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1n8zMXUa8kRrSu",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Telford",
"venue_name": "New Bucks Head"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.294,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.297,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.297,
"draw": 0.2618,
"home": 0.4412
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3009
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2852,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.297,
"draw": 0.2618,
"home": 0.4412
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2712
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4187,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.297,
"draw": 0.2618,
"home": 0.4412
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4219
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": 0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0812,
"ev": -0.1706,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2106,
"alpha_yes": 0.2317,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0402,
"edge_yes": -0.0402,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0511,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0727,
"ev_yes": -0.0932,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1077,
"implied_no": 0.4168,
"implied_yes": 0.5832,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2106,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0727,
"implied_prob": 0.4144,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4234
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2317,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.1077,
"implied_prob": 0.5856,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5757
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4234,
"p_final_yes": 0.5757,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2186,
"alpha_under": 0.1988,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.16,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.085,
"edge_over": -0.0764,
"edge_under": 0.0764,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1099,
"ev_under": 0.1189,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0498,
"implied_over": 0.5584,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5597,
"implied_under": 0.4416,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4403,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.5597,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5427
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1988,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.4403,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4557
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5427,
"p_final_under": 0.4557,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (AFC Telford United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AFC Telford United at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AFC Telford United as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AFC Telford United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (AFC Telford United).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1141,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1707,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "AFC Telford United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2106,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.009,
"market_prob": 0.4144,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2106,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0727,
"implied_prob": 0.4144,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4234
},
"p_final": 0.4234,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0727,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2317,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.1077,
"implied_prob": 0.5856,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5757
}
},
"edge": 0.0402,
"ev": 0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4168,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1988,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0155,
"market_prob": 0.4403,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.5597,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5427
},
"p_final": 0.4557,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1988,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.4403,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4557
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0764,
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.4416,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1587813,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1189,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "King\u0027s Lynn Town",
"home": "AFC Telford United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.043113,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.4416,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1141,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1707,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1587813,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:04:44.878452+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho AFC Telford United & King's Lynn Town!
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Đăng ký ngay
National League - North — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Spalding United | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | South Shields | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Buxton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Bedford Town | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Chester | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Morecambe | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Merthyr Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | King's Lynn Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 13 | Harborough Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 15 | Scarborough Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Chorley | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 17 | Marine | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | AFC Telford United | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Hednesford Town | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 20 | Southport | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 21 | Brackley Town | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 22 | Radcliffe | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 23 | Darlington 1883 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 22 |
| 2 | Buxton | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 | Hebburn Town | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 17 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Chorley | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Spalding United | 9 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 9 | Morecambe | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Hednesford Town | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Macclesfield | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 9 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 14 | Southport | 9 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Darlington 1883 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Marine | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Chester | 9 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 19 | South Shields | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 17 |
| 20 | Worksop Town | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
| 21 | Spennymoor Town | 9 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 |
| 22 | AFC Telford United | 9 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 23 | Radcliffe | 9 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 24 | Brackley Town | 8 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
