AI correctly predicted the Borussia Dortmund II win.
The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund II | 39.0% | 53.2% | -14.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.3% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
| FC Bocholt | 31.5% | 23.6% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Borussia Dortmund II's win probability at 53.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Borussia Dortmund II win 4–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Borussia Dortmund II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Borussia Dortmund II higher (53.2% vs model 39.0%, 14.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Borussia Dortmund II win 4–2).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Borussia Dortmund II 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · FC Bocholt 31.5%
- xG · Borussia Dortmund II 1.38 — FC Bocholt 1.22
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Borussia Dortmund II 1.72 · Draw 3.93 · FC Bocholt 3.88
- Implied 1X2 · Borussia Dortmund II 53.2% · Draw 23.3% · FC Bocholt 23.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Borussia Dortmund II 1.72 · Draw 3.93 · FC Bocholt 3.88
- Implied 1X2 · Borussia Dortmund II 53.2% · Draw 23.3% · FC Bocholt 23.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Borussia Dortmund II win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
29/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.72
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Borussia Dortmund II win · Borussia Dortmund II 4–2 FC Bocholt
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
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"match_winner": {
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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{
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{
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{
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"text": "-34.0%"
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"text": "+25%+"
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{
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},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2602,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2009,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.1,
"text": "-20.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0043,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.4,
"text": "-0.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3297,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"sort_key": 2199.656,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.19,
"hero_label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"market_prob_pct": 53.2,
"market_team": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4659,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4659,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Borussia Dortmund II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Borussia Dortmund II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +46.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +46.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +46.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+46.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund II).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3297,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "0/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.19,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.19,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +0.5%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4659,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4659,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Borussia Dortmund II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Borussia Dortmund II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +46.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +46.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +46.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+46.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund II).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3297,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Borussia Dortmund II 1.38 xG vs FC Bocholt 1.22 \u2192 Borussia Dortmund II 39.0%",
"Market: Borussia Dortmund II ~53.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +0.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Borussia Dortmund II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.19,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"market_prob": 53.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.27,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.91,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "FC Bocholt",
"market_prob": 23.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.14,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.14,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.54,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 67.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.54,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 32.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"market_prob_pct": 53.16,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Borussia Dortmund II\u0027s win probability at 53.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.19,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Borussia Dortmund II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Borussia Dortmund II 1.38 xG vs FC Bocholt 1.22 \u2192 Borussia Dortmund II 39.0%",
"Market: Borussia Dortmund II ~53.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +0.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Borussia Dortmund II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.19,
"hero_label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +0.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (0/4 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Borussia Dortmund II than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Borussia Dortmund II than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (0/4 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Borussia Dortmund II more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (0/4), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.19,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Borussia Dortmund II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.19,
"edge_pp": -14.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"market_prob_pct": 53.16,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.27,
"edge_pp": 6.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.27,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.91,
"edge_pp": 7.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Bocholt",
"market_prob_pct": 23.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Borussia Dortmund II (53.2%).",
"Borussia Dortmund II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.14,
"closing_odds": 1.72,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.14,
"entry_odds": 1.72,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "0/4",
"current_odds": 3.77,
"move_display": "\u2191 +0.5%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 3,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-bocholt",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Bocholt",
"away_team_id": 12764,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12764.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Bocholt",
"away_team_public_id": "1s2FUgeczLICZK",
"away_team_slug": "fc-bocholt",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1587482,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"home_team_id": 9367,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9367.webp",
"home_team_name": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"home_team_public_id": "2CfplpkSH0qRK5",
"home_team_slug": "borussia-dortmund-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "borussia-dortmund-ii",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "Regionalliga West",
"league_id": 87,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/87.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga West",
"league_public_id": "4CdAHct6OG7LSV",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 12:00:00",
"public_id": "5LS8Lq89RMzIbn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Dortmund",
"venue_name": "Stadion Rote Erde"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2643,
"best_odd": 3.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0043,
"implied_prob": 0.2357,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2357,
"draw": 0.2327,
"home": 0.5316
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2566
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2718,
"best_odd": 3.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0186,
"implied_prob": 0.2327,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2357,
"draw": 0.2327,
"home": 0.5316
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2497
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4722,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.067,
"ev": -0.2009,
"implied_prob": 0.5316,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2357,
"draw": 0.2327,
"home": 0.5316
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4646
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.88,
"edge": 0.0572,
"ev": 0.2219,
"implied_prob": 0.2577,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.93,
"edge": 0.041,
"ev": 0.161,
"implied_prob": 0.2545,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.1917,
"ev": -0.3298,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1422,
"alpha_yes": 0.1955,
"best_no_odd": 2.94,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1354,
"edge_yes": -0.1354,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3406,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0328,
"ev_yes": -0.2602,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1266,
"implied_no": 0.3206,
"implied_yes": 0.6794,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.3159,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3358
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1266,
"implied_prob": 0.6841,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6567
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3358,
"p_final_yes": 0.6567,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1739,
"alpha_under": 0.1265,
"best_over_odd": 1.37,
"best_under_odd": 2.83,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.33,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.83,
"edge_over": -0.1914,
"edge_under": 0.1914,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3397,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1411,
"ev_under": 0.4659,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0243,
"implied_over": 0.6734,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6803,
"implied_under": 0.3266,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3197,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1739,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0345,
"ev": -0.1411,
"implied_prob": 0.6803,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6458
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1265,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0243,
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3448
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6458,
"p_final_under": 0.3448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4659,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4659,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4659,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4659,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4659,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Borussia Dortmund II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Borussia Dortmund II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +46.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +46.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +46.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+46.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund II).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3297,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.067,
"ev": -0.2009,
"implied_prob": 0.5316,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Borussia Dortmund II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0199,
"market_prob": 0.3159,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.3159,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3358
},
"p_final": 0.3358,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1266,
"implied_prob": 0.6841,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6567
}
},
"edge": 0.1354,
"ev": 0.3406,
"implied_prob": 0.3206,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1265,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0251,
"market_prob": 0.3197,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1739,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0345,
"ev": -0.1411,
"implied_prob": 0.6803,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6458
},
"p_final": 0.3448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0243,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1265,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0243,
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3448
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1914,
"ev": 0.4659,
"implied_prob": 0.3266,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1587482,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4659,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3406,
"implied_prob": 0.3206,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3406,
"implied_prob": 0.3206,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Bocholt",
"home": "Borussia Dortmund II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.168935,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4659,
"implied_prob": 0.3266,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3297,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1587482,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T11:59:05.624664+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Borussia Dortmund II & FC Bocholt!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Regionalliga West — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-Weiß Oberhausen | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Borussia Mönchengladbach II | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Gutersloh | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Westfalia Rhynern | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Bergisch Gladbach | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Köln II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Paderborn II | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Bocholt | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 12 | Bonner SC | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 13 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Hilden | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 15 | Bochum II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 | Wiedenbrück | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 | SV Rodinghausen | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-Weiß Oberhausen | 10 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach II | 10 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 20 |
| 3 | FC Gutersloh | 10 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Bocholt | 10 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 13 |
| 5 | Borussia Dortmund II | 10 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 22 |
| 6 | Schalke 04 II | 10 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Köln II | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | Paderborn II | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Bonner SC | 10 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Westfalia Rhynern | 10 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Bergisch Gladbach | 10 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 10 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | SV Rodinghausen | 10 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Wiedenbrück | 9 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Hilden | 10 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 | Bochum II | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 10 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 3 |
