AI correctly predicted the SG Sonnenhof Großaspach win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 SG Sonnenhof Großaspach SG Sonnenhof Großaspach ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 38.5% | 41.5% | -3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.4% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Hoffenheim II | 31.9% | 33.1% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (SG Sonnenhof Großaspach win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (SG Sonnenhof Großaspach win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Hoffenheim II 31.9%
- xG · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 1.37 — Hoffenheim II 1.23
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 2.30 · Draw 3.75 · Hoffenheim II 2.88
- Implied 1X2 · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 41.5% · Draw 25.4% · Hoffenheim II 33.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 2.30 · Draw 3.75 · Hoffenheim II 2.88
- Implied 1X2 · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 41.5% · Draw 25.4% · Hoffenheim II 33.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result SG Sonnenhof Großaspach win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
79/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.75
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach win · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 1–0 Hoffenheim II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.076,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.6,
"text": "-7.6%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4146,
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},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
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"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"sort_key": 2199.792,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"alert_team": "Hoffenheim II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.14,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"market_team": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.076,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4146,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.09090909090909091,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.9,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.14,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.14,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"steam_team": "Hoffenheim II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.076,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4146,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach 1.37 xG vs Hoffenheim II 1.23 \u2192 SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach 38.5%",
"Market: SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach ~41.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Hoffenheim II \u2193 -6.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach, but sharp money moved toward Hoffenheim II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.97,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"market_prob": 41.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.14,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.17,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Hoffenheim II",
"market_prob": 33.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.11,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.11,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.54,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.54,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.43,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Hoffenheim II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.14,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach 1.37 xG vs Hoffenheim II 1.23 \u2192 SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach 38.5%",
"Market: SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach ~41.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Hoffenheim II \u2193 -6.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach, but sharp money moved toward Hoffenheim II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.14,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Hoffenheim II odds shortened \u2193 -6.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Hoffenheim II, with odds shortening by 6.2%. Confirmation remains limited (1/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Hoffenheim II, with odds shortening by 6.2%. Confirmation remains limited (1/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Hoffenheim II has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.2%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.97,
"edge_pp": -2.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"market_prob_pct": 41.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.14,
"edge_pp": 4.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.43,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.17,
"edge_pp": -1.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hoffenheim II",
"market_prob_pct": 33.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach (41.5%).",
"Hoffenheim II has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -6.2%, 1/11).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach, Market \u2192 SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach, Recent sharp money \u2192 Hoffenheim II.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.67,
"closing_odds": 3.75,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.67,
"entry_odds": 3.75,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.2
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "1/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 56h 42m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Hoffenheim II (swing 3.06 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 2.70) \u2014 net 6.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.88",
"2.79",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.06 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 56h 42m",
"pick_team": "Hoffenheim II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.06"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Hoffenheim II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Market moved toward Hoffenheim II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Hoffenheim II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/11",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Hoffenheim II",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Hoffenheim II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hoffenheim II",
"away_team_id": 9364,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9364.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hoffenheim II",
"away_team_public_id": "3TUkDkqReb0Max",
"away_team_slug": "hoffenheim-ii",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1583975,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"home_team_id": 1317,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1317.webp",
"home_team_name": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"home_team_public_id": "1pipJZCPdxvSrK",
"home_team_slug": "sg-sonnenhof-grossaspach",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "3. Liga",
"league_id": 80,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga",
"league_public_id": "0akjle0QoiBkC3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 14:30:00",
"public_id": "3awqitcyBtQz1H",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Aspach",
"venue_name": "WIRmachenDRUCK Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4422,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0051,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3311,
"draw": 0.2543,
"home": 0.4146
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.326
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2813,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.2543,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3311,
"draw": 0.2543,
"home": 0.4146
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.266
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4298,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.4146,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3311,
"draw": 0.2543,
"home": 0.4146
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4017
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.0798,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": 0.1095,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0502,
"ev": -0.1154,
"implied_prob": 0.4348,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1573,
"alpha_yes": 0.2162,
"best_no_odd": 2.62,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0854,
"edge_yes": -0.0854,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1947,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0664,
"ev_yes": -0.1677,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1246,
"implied_no": 0.3706,
"implied_yes": 0.6294,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1573,
"best_odd": 2.425,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.3718,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.385
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1246,
"implied_prob": 0.6282,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.61
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.385,
"p_final_yes": 0.61,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2117,
"alpha_under": 0.1539,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.52,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.1211,
"edge_under": 0.1211,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1134,
"ev_under": 0.3054,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0286,
"implied_over": 0.6031,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6057,
"implied_under": 0.3969,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3943,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2117,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.6057,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5795
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1539,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.3943,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4134
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5795,
"p_final_under": 0.4134,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3054,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hoffenheim II, but the model still strongly favours SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.076,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4146,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.4146,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1573,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.425,
"edge": 0.0132,
"market_prob": 0.3718,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1573,
"best_odd": 2.425,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.3718,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.385
},
"p_final": 0.385,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0664,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1246,
"implied_prob": 0.6282,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.61
}
},
"edge": 0.0854,
"ev": 0.1947,
"implied_prob": 0.3706,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1539,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.019,
"market_prob": 0.3943,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2117,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.6057,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5795
},
"p_final": 0.4134,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0286,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1539,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.3943,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4134
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1211,
"ev": 0.3054,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1583975,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3054,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1947,
"implied_prob": 0.3706,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1947,
"implied_prob": 0.3706,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hoffenheim II",
"home": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.110738,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3054,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.076,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4146,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1583975,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T14:29:42.936092+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho SG Sonnenhof Großaspach & Hoffenheim II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
3. Liga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Havelse | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Verl | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Havelse | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | SV Meppen | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
