The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Mashuk-KMV at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Mashuk-KMV Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Sokol Saratov | 33.8% | 27.4% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.9% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Mashuk-KMV | 36.6% | 43.7% | -7.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Mashuk-KMV's win probability at 43.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Mashuk-KMV. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Mashuk-KMV by 7.1 percentage points (43.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:52 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FK Sokol Saratov 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Mashuk-KMV 36.6%
- xG · FK Sokol Saratov 1.27 — Mashuk-KMV 1.33
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FK Sokol Saratov 3.25 · Draw 3.08 · Mashuk-KMV 2.04
- Implied 1X2 · FK Sokol Saratov 27.4% · Draw 28.9% · Mashuk-KMV 43.7%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:52 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · FK Sokol Saratov 3.25 · Draw 3.08 · Mashuk-KMV 2.04
- Implied 1X2 · FK Sokol Saratov 27.4% · Draw 28.9% · Mashuk-KMV 43.7%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
64/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · FK Sokol Saratov 0–0 Mashuk-KMV
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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],
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{
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{
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{
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"under": {
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"ev": -0.1008,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0941,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 9.4,
"text": "+9.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2023,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.2,
"text": "-20.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0941,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10084.69,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1672,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.7,
"text": "-16.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0532,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.3,
"text": "-5.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2534,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"sort_key": 1786.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.08,
"hero_label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"market_prob_pct": 43.7,
"market_team": "Mashuk-KMV",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Mashuk-KMV",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0941,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.097,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mashuk-KMV at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mashuk-KMV as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mashuk-KMV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1672,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2534,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "0/2",
"breadth_ratio": 0.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 70,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.08,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.08,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -1.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -1.8%",
"steam_team": "FK Sokol Saratov",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0941,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.097,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mashuk-KMV at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mashuk-KMV as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mashuk-KMV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1672,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2534,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FK Sokol Saratov 1.27 xG vs Mashuk-KMV 1.33 \u2192 Mashuk-KMV 36.6%",
"Market: Mashuk-KMV ~43.7% implied",
"Market Steam: FK Sokol Saratov \u2193 -1.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Mashuk-KMV, but sharp money moved toward FK Sokol Saratov.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.36,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "FK Sokol Saratov",
"market_prob": 27.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.72,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.08,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"market_prob": 43.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.56,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.56,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Mashuk-KMV",
"market_prob_pct": 43.67,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FK Sokol Saratov"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Mashuk-KMV\u0027s win probability at 43.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.08,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 70,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FK Sokol Saratov 1.27 xG vs Mashuk-KMV 1.33 \u2192 Mashuk-KMV 36.6%",
"Market: Mashuk-KMV ~43.7% implied",
"Market Steam: FK Sokol Saratov \u2193 -1.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Mashuk-KMV, but sharp money moved toward FK Sokol Saratov.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.08,
"hero_label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "FK Sokol Saratov odds shortened \u2193 -1.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on FK Sokol Saratov, with odds shortening by 1.8%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Mashuk-KMV. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Mashuk-KMV. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on FK Sokol Saratov, with odds shortening by 1.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Mashuk-KMV above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, FK Sokol Saratov has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 1.8%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.08,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Mashuk-KMV higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.36,
"edge_pp": 6.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FK Sokol Saratov",
"market_prob_pct": 27.41,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.72,
"edge_pp": 0.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.92,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.08,
"edge_pp": -7.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"market_prob_pct": 43.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Mashuk-KMV (43.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Mashuk-KMV, Market \u2192 Mashuk-KMV, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.02,
"closing_odds": 2.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.02,
"entry_odds": 2.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "0/2",
"current_odds": 3.34,
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.8%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "FK Sokol Saratov",
"steam_score": 6,
"steam_team_name": "FK Sokol Saratov",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mashuk-kmv",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mashuk-KMV",
"away_team_id": 6814,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6814.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mashuk-KMV",
"away_team_public_id": "3AQlIdLQHHn0IT",
"away_team_slug": "mashuk-kmv",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1583871,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "FK Sokol Saratov",
"home_team_id": 1995,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1995.webp",
"home_team_name": "FK Sokol Saratov",
"home_team_public_id": "0N1up7X48aRMJ2",
"home_team_slug": "fk-sokol-saratov",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fk-sokol-saratov",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Hai Nga A - Division A Gold",
"league_id": 1025,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1025.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Hai Nga A - Division A Gold",
"league_public_id": "0tRT876TALDfdr",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2XW9kpQX9B02Nz",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Saratov",
"venue_name": "Stadion Lokomotiv"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4023,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0284,
"ev": -0.1672,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4367,
"draw": 0.2892,
"home": 0.2741
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4082
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2967,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0022,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.2892,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4367,
"draw": 0.2892,
"home": 0.2741
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2914
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2714,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0532,
"implied_prob": 0.2741,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4367,
"draw": 0.2892,
"home": 0.2741
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2913
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.1242,
"ev": -0.2534,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.0869,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": 0.097,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1536,
"alpha_yes": 0.1396,
"best_no_odd": 1.74,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0756,
"edge_yes": 0.0756,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2083,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1047,
"ev_yes": 0.0628,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0641,
"implied_no": 0.5306,
"implied_yes": 0.4694,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.5306,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.519
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1396,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0641,
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4799
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.519,
"p_final_yes": 0.4799,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1113,
"alpha_under": 0.153,
"best_over_odd": 2.27,
"best_under_odd": 1.54,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.27,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.54,
"edge_over": 0.0778,
"edge_under": -0.0778,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0941,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0628,
"ev_under": -0.2023,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1008,
"implied_over": 0.4042,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4042,
"implied_under": 0.5958,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5958,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1113,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4129
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5839
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4129,
"p_final_under": 0.5839,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0941,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.097,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0941,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0941,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.097,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mashuk-KMV at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mashuk-KMV as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mashuk-KMV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward FK Sokol Saratov, but the model still strongly favours Mashuk-KMV.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
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"min_reliability": 65,
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},
"thresholds_source": "db",
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},
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2965,
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},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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},
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"edge": 0.0106,
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"no": {
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},
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"yes": {
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},
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"value_side": "yes"
},
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"over": {
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},
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},
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},
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"value_side": "over"
}
},
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"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0941,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "FK Sokol Saratov"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0628,
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2534,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1583871,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:52:12.406400+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho FK Sokol Saratov & Mashuk-KMV!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Hai Nga A - Division A Gold — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 3 | Dinamo Bryansk | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 11 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 | Novosibirsk | 11 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 11 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Dinamo Kirov | 11 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 23 |
| 5 | Volgar Astrakhan | 11 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Bryansk | 11 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
| 7 | FK Sokol Saratov | 11 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
| 8 | Mashuk-KMV | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 11 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 11 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 |
