The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Rhyl at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Rhyl Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhyl | 42.4% | 55.1% | -12.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 22.4% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Buckley Town | 28.4% | 22.5% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Rhyl's win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Rhyl than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Rhyl by 12.8 percentage points (55.2% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rhyl 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Buckley Town 28.4%
- xG · Rhyl 1.45 — Buckley Town 1.15
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rhyl 1.64 · Draw 4.04 · Buckley Town 4.02
- Implied 1X2 · Rhyl 55.1% · Draw 22.4% · Buckley Town 22.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rhyl 1.64 · Draw 4.04 · Buckley Town 4.02
- Implied 1X2 · Rhyl 55.1% · Draw 22.4% · Buckley Town 22.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
36/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.64
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Rhyl 3–3 Buckley Town
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Rhyl or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
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},
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"betting_insight": {
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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{
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{
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],
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"match_winner": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:30:48",
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"text": "-24.3%"
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"text": "+25%+"
},
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"tier": "best",
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{
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},
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"text": "+12.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2077,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 46.1,
"sort_key": 10112.32,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.9
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1974,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.7,
"text": "-19.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5513,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0462,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.6,
"text": "-4.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3053,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Rhyl",
"sort_key": 1788.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +26.2%",
"alert_team": "Buckley Town",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.76,
"hero_label": "Rhyl",
"market_prob_pct": 55.1,
"market_team": "Rhyl",
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"model_team": "Rhyl",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rhyl)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rhyl)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rhyl at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rhyl as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rhyl",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rhyl).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1974,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5513,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3053,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.76,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.76,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.15,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.45,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.45 \u00b7 Away xG 1.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +26.2%",
"steam_team": "Buckley Town",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rhyl)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rhyl)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rhyl at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rhyl as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rhyl",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rhyl).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1974,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5513,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3053,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rhyl 1.45 xG vs Buckley Town 1.15 \u2192 Rhyl 42.4%",
"Market: Rhyl ~55.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Buckley Town odds \u2191 +26.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Rhyl with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.76,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "Rhyl",
"market_prob": 55.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.88,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.88,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "Buckley Town",
"market_prob": 22.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.57,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.57,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.26,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.26,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Rhyl",
"market_prob_pct": 55.13,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Buckley Town"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Rhyl\u0027s win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.76,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rhyl",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 55.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.7,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Rhyl \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rhyl 1.45 xG vs Buckley Town 1.15 \u2192 Rhyl 42.4%",
"Market: Rhyl ~55.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Buckley Town odds \u2191 +26.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Rhyl with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.76,
"hero_label": "Rhyl",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Buckley Town odds lengthened \u2191 +26.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Buckley Town has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 26.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Rhyl than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Buckley Town \u2014 odds lengthened by 26.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Rhyl than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Buckley Town has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 26.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Buckley Town \u2014 odds lengthened by 26.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Rhyl more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Buckley Town has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 26.2%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.76,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Rhyl",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Rhyl higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.76,
"edge_pp": -12.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Rhyl",
"market_prob_pct": 55.13,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.88,
"edge_pp": 6.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.88,
"edge_pp": 5.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Buckley Town",
"market_prob_pct": 22.49,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Buckley Town \u2014 odds lengthened by 26.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Rhyl (55.1%).",
"However, Buckley Town has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +26.2%, 4/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Rhyl \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.98,
"closing_odds": 1.64,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.98,
"entry_odds": 1.64,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +26.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 26.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 42h 18m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Buckley Town (26.2%, 4/6) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.10",
"3.67",
"3.25"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 42h 18m",
"pick_team": "Buckley Town",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
4.02,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.7 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Buckley Town odds \u2191 +26.2% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Buckley Town",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Buckley Town odds \u2191 +26.2% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +26.2%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Buckley Town",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +26.2%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Buckley Town",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_team_name": "Buckley Town",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "buckley-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Buckley Town",
"away_team_id": 5609,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5609.webp",
"away_team_name": "Buckley Town",
"away_team_public_id": "4Vub8DH7BZJ7UV",
"away_team_slug": "buckley-town",
"country_code": "GB-WLS",
"country_display_name": "Wales",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-wls.svg",
"country_id": 167,
"country_name": "Wales",
"fixture_id": 1580510,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Wales",
"home_team_display_name": "Rhyl",
"home_team_id": 5623,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5623.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rhyl",
"home_team_public_id": "2oE8tLJ3WZHwDf",
"home_team_slug": "rhyl",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rhyl",
"league_country": "Wales",
"league_country_display": "Wales",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i FAW Championship",
"league_id": 111,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/111.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i FAW Championship",
"league_public_id": "1vRup4lQvPxvya",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 13:30:00",
"public_id": "04Z8lec8M4HY5G",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Rhyl",
"venue_name": "Belle Vue"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1823,
"best_odd": 4.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.2249,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2249,
"draw": 0.2238,
"home": 0.5513
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.2357
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1794,
"best_odd": 4.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.2238,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2249,
"draw": 0.2238,
"home": 0.5513
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.2361
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4851,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0619,
"ev": -0.1974,
"implied_prob": 0.5513,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2249,
"draw": 0.2238,
"home": 0.5513
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.4894
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.02,
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.1418,
"implied_prob": 0.2488,
"model_prob": 0.284
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.04,
"edge": 0.0448,
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.2475,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.1861,
"ev": -0.3052,
"implied_prob": 0.6098,
"model_prob": 0.4236
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1104,
"alpha_yes": 0.1518,
"best_no_odd": 2.44,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0826,
"edge_yes": -0.0826,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1248,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0642,
"ev_yes": -0.2077,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1047,
"implied_no": 0.3784,
"implied_yes": 0.6216,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1104,
"best_odd": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.3875
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1518,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.6216,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.6091
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3875,
"p_final_yes": 0.6091,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1909,
"alpha_under": 0.1389,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.435,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.49,
"edge_over": -0.1457,
"edge_under": 0.1457,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1314,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.037,
"implied_over": 0.6277,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6344,
"implied_under": 0.3723,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3656,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1909,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.1314,
"implied_prob": 0.6344,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6053
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1389,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": -0.037,
"implied_prob": 0.3656,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3868
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6053,
"p_final_under": 0.3868,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rhyl)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rhyl at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rhyl as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rhyl",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rhyl).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1974,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5513,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.3053,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0619,
"ev": -0.1974,
"implied_prob": 0.5513,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Rhyl"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1104,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0091,
"market_prob": 0.3784,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.461,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
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"p_final": 0.3875
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"p_final": 0.3875,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0642,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1518,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.6216,
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},
"edge": 0.0826,
"ev": 0.1248,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1389,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0212,
"market_prob": 0.3656,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1909,
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"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.1314,
"implied_prob": 0.6344,
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"p_final": 0.3868,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.037,
"under": {
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"edge": 0.0212,
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"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1457,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1580510,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.1248,
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
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"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
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],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Buckley Town",
"home": "Rhyl"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1974,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5513,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.3053,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1580510,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:30:49.880732+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Giải FAW Championship — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Newport City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Pontardawe Town | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanelli AFC | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 6 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 16 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 |
| 3 | Carmarthen Town | 7 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 11 |
| 4 | Treowen Stars | 7 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Pontypridd Town | 6 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 8 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Newport City | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 14 | Llanelli AFC | 8 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 2 |
| 15 | Pontardawe Town | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 5 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 1 |
