The model missed the final outcome (1. FC Nürnberg win 0–1).
The model had projected Karlsruher SC at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Karlsruher SC 1. FC Nürnberg ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruher SC | 37.5% | 32.2% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 26.7% | 24.0% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 35.8% | 43.8% | -8.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 1. FC Nürnberg's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.8%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là 1. FC Nürnberg win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 1. FC Nürnberg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Karlsruher SC; match finished 1. FC Nürnberg
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Karlsruher SC by 8.0 percentage points (45.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Karlsruher SC 37.6% · Draw 26.6% · 1. FC Nürnberg 35.8%
- xG · Karlsruher SC 1.57 — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.53
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Karlsruher SC 3.01 · Draw 4.03 · 1. FC Nürnberg 2.21
- Implied 1X2 · Karlsruher SC 32.2% · Draw 24.0% · 1. FC Nürnberg 43.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Karlsruher SC 3.01 · Draw 4.03 · 1. FC Nürnberg 2.21
- Implied 1X2 · Karlsruher SC 32.2% · Draw 24.0% · 1. FC Nürnberg 43.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 1. FC Nürnberg win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
20/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.21
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
1. FC Nürnberg win · Karlsruher SC 0–1 1. FC Nürnberg
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"over_25_prob": 0.599,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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"away_played": 5,
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"pick": "No",
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
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{
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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{
"key": "12",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Karlsruher SC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.1,
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"confidence": "medium",
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"odds": 3.01
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:01:15",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 10:31:34",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Karlsruher SC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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"text": "+18.6%"
},
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"text": "-15.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 36.5,
"sort_key": 10167.67,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 63.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0129,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0129,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3756,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1306,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Karlsruher SC",
"sort_key": 5210.32,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 812.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"alert_team": "Karlsruher SC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.01,
"hero_label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"market_prob_pct": 32.2,
"market_team": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Karlsruher SC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlsruher SC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlsruher SC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3634,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3634,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karlsruher SC at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karlsruher SC as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karlsruher SC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlsruher SC).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0129,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3756,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1306,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.01,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.53,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.57,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.57,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.57 \u00b7 Away xG 1.53 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"steam_team": "Karlsruher SC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlsruher SC).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlsruher SC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlsruher SC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3634,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3634,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karlsruher SC at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karlsruher SC as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karlsruher SC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlsruher SC).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0129,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3756,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1306,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Karlsruher SC 1.57 xG vs 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg 1.53 \u2192 Karlsruher SC 37.5%",
"Market: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg ~32.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Karlsruher SC \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Karlsruher SC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.37,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Karlsruher SC",
"market_prob": 32.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.64,
"fair_prob": 26.66,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.01,
"fair_prob": 35.8,
"label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"market_prob": 43.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.39,
"fair_prob": 59.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 70.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.39,
"fair_prob": 40.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 29.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.25,
"fair_prob": 63.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 70.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.15,
"fair_prob": 36.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 29.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.8,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"market_prob_pct": 43.81,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Karlsruher SC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg\u0027s win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.8%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Karlsruher SC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.3,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Karlsruher SC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Karlsruher SC 1.57 xG vs 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg 1.53 \u2192 Karlsruher SC 37.5%",
"Market: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg ~32.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Karlsruher SC \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Karlsruher SC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.01,
"hero_label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Karlsruher SC odds shortened \u2193 -6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Karlsruher SC, with odds shortening by 6.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Karlsruher SC, with odds shortening by 6.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Karlsruher SC has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.7 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.37,
"edge_pp": 5.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Karlsruher SC",
"market_prob_pct": 32.17,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.64,
"edge_pp": 2.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.66,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.02,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.01,
"edge_pp": -8.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.8,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"market_prob_pct": 43.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg (32.2%).",
"Karlsruher SC has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -6.7%, 2/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Karlsruher SC, Market \u2192 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg, Recent sharp money \u2192 Karlsruher SC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.25,
"closing_odds": 2.21,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.25,
"entry_odds": 2.21,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 100h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Karlsruher SC (swing 3.01 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.80) \u2014 net 6.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.01",
"2.90",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.01 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 100h 15m",
"pick_team": "Karlsruher SC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.01"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.01,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.9 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.01"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Karlsruher SC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Karlsruher SC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Karlsruher SC",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_team_name": "Karlsruher SC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "1-fc-nurnberg",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"away_team_id": 171,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/171.webp",
"away_team_name": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"away_team_public_id": "2SLod6bqVQAm9D",
"away_team_slug": "1-fc-nurnberg",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1576185,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Karlsruher SC",
"home_team_id": 785,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/785.webp",
"home_team_name": "Karlsruher SC",
"home_team_public_id": "0wNZuW3QtbX1so",
"home_team_slug": "karlsruher-sc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "karlsruher-sc",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_id": 79,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
"league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "0Lxi3Z4aPBtEjI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 11:00:00",
"public_id": "1VL2EYO2Z9QjOm",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Karlsruhe",
"venue_name": "BBBank Wildpark"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.396,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0317,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.4381,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4381,
"draw": 0.2402,
"home": 0.3217
},
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"p_final": 0.4064
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 4.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0116,
"implied_prob": 0.2402,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4381,
"draw": 0.2402,
"home": 0.3217
},
"model_prob": 0.2664,
"p_final": 0.2453
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2757,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": 0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4381,
"draw": 0.2402,
"home": 0.3217
},
"model_prob": 0.3756,
"p_final": 0.3365
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": -0.0944,
"ev": -0.2087,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.3581
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.03,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": 0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.2481,
"model_prob": 0.2664
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": 0.0433,
"ev": 0.1304,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.3756
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2352,
"alpha_yes": 0.5165,
"best_no_odd": 3.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.33,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0715,
"edge_yes": -0.0725,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1863,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0189,
"ev_yes": -0.1568,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1182,
"implied_no": 0.2935,
"implied_yes": 0.7065,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2352,
"best_odd": 3.145,
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0189,
"implied_prob": 0.2956,
"model_prob": 0.365,
"p_final": 0.3119
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5165,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0363,
"ev": -0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.7044,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"p_final": 0.668
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3119,
"p_final_yes": 0.668,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4857,
"alpha_under": 0.2208,
"best_over_odd": 1.39,
"best_under_odd": 3.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.32,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.155,
"edge_over": -0.1039,
"edge_under": 0.1039,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1674,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1373,
"ev_under": 0.3634,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0045,
"implied_over": 0.7029,
"implied_over_mf": 0.705,
"implied_under": 0.2971,
"implied_under_mf": 0.295,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4857,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0515,
"ev": -0.1373,
"implied_prob": 0.705,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"p_final": 0.6535
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2208,
"best_odd": 3.155,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": 0.0045,
"implied_prob": 0.295,
"model_prob": 0.401,
"p_final": 0.3184
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6535,
"p_final_under": 0.3184,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.1,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3634,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3634,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3634,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlsruher SC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3634,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3634,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karlsruher SC at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karlsruher SC as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karlsruher SC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlsruher SC).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0129,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3756,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1306,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.634,
"draw_prob": 0.2664,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3756,
"over_prob": 0.599,
"total_xg": 3.1,
"under_prob": 0.401,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": 0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3756,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Karlsruher SC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2352,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.145,
"edge": 0.0163,
"market_prob": 0.2956,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.365,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2352,
"best_odd": 3.145,
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0189,
"implied_prob": 0.2956,
"model_prob": 0.365,
"p_final": 0.3119
},
"p_final": 0.3119,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0189,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5165,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0363,
"ev": -0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.7044,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"p_final": 0.668
}
},
"edge": 0.0715,
"ev": 0.1863,
"implied_prob": 0.2935,
"model_prob": 0.365,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.155,
"edge": 0.0234,
"market_prob": 0.295,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.401,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4857,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0515,
"ev": -0.1373,
"implied_prob": 0.705,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"p_final": 0.6535
},
"p_final": 0.3184,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0045,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2208,
"best_odd": 3.155,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": 0.0045,
"implied_prob": 0.295,
"model_prob": 0.401,
"p_final": 0.3184
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1039,
"ev": 0.3634,
"implied_prob": 0.2971,
"model_prob": 0.401,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1576185,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3634,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3581,
"draw": 0.2664,
"home": 0.3756
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"home": "Karlsruher SC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.138437,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3634,
"implied_prob": 0.2971,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.401,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0129,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3756,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1306,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1576185,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:01:17.234394+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Karlsruher SC & 1. FC Nürnberg!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
2. Bundesliga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 16 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 11 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 8 |
| 6 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 5 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | +2.3 | 7 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 6.0 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 11 |
| 4 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 7.5 | 5.6 | +1.9 | 18 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 7.7 | 6.0 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 6 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 5.6 | 4.1 | +1.5 | 4 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 5.7 | 4.3 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | +1.2 | 7 |
| 9 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 9.4 | 8.5 | +0.9 | 4 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 6.9 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 11 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 11 |
| 12 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 4.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 16 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 5.7 | 7.7 | -2.0 | 7 |
| 15 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 3.4 | 5.8 | -2.4 | 4 |
| 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | 10 |
| 18 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 5.0 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 8 |
