The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Caernarfon Town at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Caernarfon Town Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MET | 31.9% | 28.8% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.2% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Caernarfon Town | 38.5% | 48.0% | -9.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Caernarfon Town's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Caernarfon Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Caernarfon Town by 9.5 percentage points (48.0% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cardiff MET 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Caernarfon Town 38.5%
- xG · Cardiff MET 1.23 — Caernarfon Town 1.37
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cardiff MET 3.22 · Draw 3.99 · Caernarfon Town 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · Cardiff MET 28.8% · Draw 23.2% · Caernarfon Town 48.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cardiff MET 3.22 · Draw 3.99 · Caernarfon Town 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · Cardiff MET 28.8% · Draw 23.2% · Caernarfon Town 48.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
52/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Cardiff MET 2–2 Caernarfon Town
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6513071565eefa1c72ff632e61312d1cfb54d3ffeac8565e2cb475453c2ef43b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"away_win_prob": 0.3849,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.6,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.13,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"home_win_prob": 0.3194,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Caernarfon Town and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Caernarfon Town"
},
"away_xg": 1.37,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Caernarfon Town",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0954,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4801,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.5,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.93
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.93,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Caernarfon Town Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.08,
"market_odds": 1.93,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": -13.4,
"value_pct": -25.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 10,
"away_score_rate": 74.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 70.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.37,
"home_expected": 1.23,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Cardiff MET or Draw",
"prob": 61.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Cardiff MET or Caernarfon Town",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Caernarfon Town",
"prob": 68.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Cardiff MET or Caernarfon Town",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 31.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Caernarfon Town"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 3.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.1,
"implied_prob": 25.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.99
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Caernarfon Town",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 48.01,
"draw": 23.22,
"home": 28.77
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:30:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:07:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Cardiff MET",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.77,
"gap_pp": 3.18,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.22,
"gap_pp": 6.37,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.01,
"gap_pp": -9.54,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.18,
"gap_pp": -14.98,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.82,
"gap_pp": 14.98,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.22,
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"implied_closing_pct": 28.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.77,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.99,
"early": 3.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.48,
"early": 1.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.18,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.54,
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"implied_closing_pct": 36.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3802,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1963,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0271,
"ev": -0.1346,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5927
},
"p_final": 0.3999,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2328,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0483,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3999
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.7,
"text": "-27.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3157,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 31.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3157,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10434.13,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1571,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0133,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.371,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1571,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.371,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3844
},
"p_final": 0.3844,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1286,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.629,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6106
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.14,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10126.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1682,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0046,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2577,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Caernarfon Town",
"sort_key": 2199.632,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"alert_team": "Cardiff MET",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.52,
"hero_label": "Caernarfon Town",
"market_prob_pct": 48.0,
"market_team": "Caernarfon Town",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Caernarfon Town",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3157,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Caernarfon Town at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Caernarfon Town as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Caernarfon Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1682,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2577,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.52,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.52,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"steam_team": "Cardiff MET",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3157,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Caernarfon Town at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Caernarfon Town as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Caernarfon Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1682,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2577,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cardiff MET 1.23 xG vs Caernarfon Town 1.37 \u2192 Caernarfon Town 38.5%",
"Market: Caernarfon Town ~48.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Cardiff MET \u2193 -30.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Caernarfon Town, but sharp money moved toward Cardiff MET.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.17,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Cardiff MET",
"market_prob": 28.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.35,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.52,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Caernarfon Town",
"market_prob": 48.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.7,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.7,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.23,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.23,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Caernarfon Town",
"market_prob_pct": 48.01,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Cardiff MET"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Caernarfon Town\u0027s win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.52,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Caernarfon Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cardiff MET 1.23 xG vs Caernarfon Town 1.37 \u2192 Caernarfon Town 38.5%",
"Market: Caernarfon Town ~48.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Cardiff MET \u2193 -30.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Caernarfon Town, but sharp money moved toward Cardiff MET.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.52,
"hero_label": "Caernarfon Town",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Cardiff MET odds shortened \u2193 -30.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Cardiff MET, with odds shortening by 30.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Caernarfon Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Cardiff MET \u2014 odds shortened by 30.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Caernarfon Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Cardiff MET, with odds shortening by 30.7%.",
"Buying interest on Cardiff MET \u2014 odds shortened by 30.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Caernarfon Town above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Cardiff MET has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 30.7%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Cardiff MET."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.52,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Caernarfon Town",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Caernarfon Town higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.17,
"edge_pp": 3.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cardiff MET",
"market_prob_pct": 28.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.35,
"edge_pp": 6.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.52,
"edge_pp": -9.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Caernarfon Town",
"market_prob_pct": 48.01,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Cardiff MET \u2014 odds shortened by 30.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Caernarfon Town (48.0%).",
"However, Cardiff MET has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -30.7%, 6/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Caernarfon Town, Market \u2192 Caernarfon Town, Recent sharp money \u2192 Cardiff MET.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -34.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -34.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -27.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.5
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 30.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 57h 5m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/7 books synchronized on Cardiff MET (30.7% steam, score 95) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"3.67",
"3.00"
],
"display": "4.75 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 57h 5m",
"pick_team": "Cardiff MET",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
3.22,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,15.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Cardiff MET \u2193 -30.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Cardiff MET",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Cardiff MET \u2193 -30.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Market moved toward Cardiff MET while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Cardiff MET",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Cardiff MET",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_team_name": "Cardiff MET",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "caernarfon-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Caernarfon Town",
"away_team_id": 356,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/356.webp",
"away_team_name": "Caernarfon Town",
"away_team_public_id": "3EMB82cNxcGjSZ",
"away_team_slug": "caernarfon-town",
"country_code": "GB-WLS",
"country_display_name": "Wales",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-wls.svg",
"country_id": 167,
"country_name": "Wales",
"fixture_id": 1575966,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Wales",
"home_team_display_name": "Cardiff MET",
"home_team_id": 353,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/353.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cardiff MET",
"home_team_public_id": "3j5HN7PT8GHddN",
"home_team_slug": "cardiff-met",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cardiff-met",
"league_country": "Wales",
"league_country_display": "Wales",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Wales",
"league_id": 110,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/110.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Wales",
"league_public_id": "2Ov0m2mbKv4WSg",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 13:30:00",
"public_id": "3OO21jxTNq2YbJ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cardiff",
"venue_name": "Cyncoed Campus"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5141,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0491,
"ev": -0.1682,
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4801,
"draw": 0.2322,
"home": 0.2877
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.431
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2714,
"best_odd": 3.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0046,
"implied_prob": 0.2322,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4801,
"draw": 0.2322,
"home": 0.2877
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2495
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2857,
"best_odd": 3.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0443,
"implied_prob": 0.2877,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4801,
"draw": 0.2322,
"home": 0.2877
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2968
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1335,
"ev": -0.2577,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.99,
"edge": 0.0452,
"ev": 0.1805,
"implied_prob": 0.2506,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.22,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": 0.0288,
"implied_prob": 0.3106,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1571,
"alpha_yes": 0.216,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0823,
"edge_yes": -0.0823,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0487,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1085,
"implied_no": 0.3737,
"implied_yes": 0.6263,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1571,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.371,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3844
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.629,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6106
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3844,
"p_final_yes": 0.6106,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1963,
"alpha_under": 0.1428,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.54,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": -0.137,
"edge_under": 0.137,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1346,
"ev_under": 0.3157,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0483,
"implied_over": 0.619,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6198,
"implied_under": 0.381,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3802,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1963,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0271,
"ev": -0.1346,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5927
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3999
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5927,
"p_final_under": 0.3999,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3157,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3157,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3157,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Caernarfon Town at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Caernarfon Town as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Caernarfon Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Cardiff MET, but the model still strongly favours Caernarfon Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1682,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2577,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0491,
"ev": -0.1682,
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Caernarfon Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1571,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0133,
"market_prob": 0.371,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1571,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.371,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3844
},
"p_final": 0.3844,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.629,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6106
}
},
"edge": 0.0823,
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"market_prob": 0.3802,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1963,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0271,
"ev": -0.1346,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5927
},
"p_final": 0.3999,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0483,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3999
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.137,
"ev": 0.3157,
"implied_prob": 0.381,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1575966,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3157,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Caernarfon Town",
"home": "Cardiff MET"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.114473,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3157,
"implied_prob": 0.381,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1682,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2577,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1575966,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:30:26.513116+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Cardiff MET & Caernarfon Town!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Ngoại hạng Wales — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 | Penybont | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | GAP Connah's Quay FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Barry Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Llandudno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Trefelin | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Flint Town United | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Holywell | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 33 | 11 | +22 | 22 |
| 2 | The New Saints | 10 | 26 | 4 | +22 | 28 |
| 3 | Barry Town | 10 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | GAP Connah's Quay FC | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 22 |
| 5 | Penybont | 10 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 24 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 9 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 14 |
| 8 | Llandudno | 10 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 9 | Airbus UK | 10 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 10 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Holywell | 10 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 1 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 10 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 2 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 7 | 28 | -21 | 3 |
| 16 | Trefelin | 10 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 3 |
