The model missed the final outcome (Cardiff MET win 0–5).
The model had projected Ammanford AFC at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Ammanford AFC Cardiff MET ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ammanford AFC | 37.1% | 16.4% | +20.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.1% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Cardiff MET | 33.3% | 60.5% | -27.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Cardiff MET's win probability at 60.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 27.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Cardiff MET win 0–5.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ammanford AFC by 27.2 percentage points (64.3% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ammanford AFC 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Cardiff MET 33.4%
- xG · Ammanford AFC 1.34 — Cardiff MET 1.26
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ammanford AFC 5.66 · Draw 4.01 · Cardiff MET 1.53
- Implied 1X2 · Ammanford AFC 16.4% · Draw 23.1% · Cardiff MET 60.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ammanford AFC 5.66 · Draw 4.01 · Cardiff MET 1.53
- Implied 1X2 · Ammanford AFC 16.4% · Draw 23.1% · Cardiff MET 60.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cardiff MET win · 0–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.53
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cardiff MET win · Ammanford AFC 0–5 Cardiff MET
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "5ce09433e38faffe16e0a01cb056d99abbec2a526046cda375a47462bbe38a8c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"away_win_prob": 0.3331,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.0,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.7,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"home_win_prob": 0.3706,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Cardiff MET",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Cardiff MET"
},
"away_xg": 1.26,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ammanford AFC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2069,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1636,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.3,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 5.66
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 5.66,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ammanford AFC Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 6.11,
"market_odds": 5.66,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 8.0,
"prob_edge": 19.4,
"value_pct": 109.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 71.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 73.8,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.26,
"home_expected": 1.34,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ammanford AFC or Draw",
"prob": 66.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ammanford AFC or Cardiff MET",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Cardiff MET",
"prob": 62.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ammanford AFC or Cardiff MET",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.3,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ammanford AFC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 110.0,
"implied_prob": 17.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ammanford AFC Win",
"model_prob": 37.1,
"odds": 5.66
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Cardiff MET",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 60.54,
"draw": 23.1,
"home": 16.36
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-31 13:29:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-31 12:59:27",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ammanford AFC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 16.36,
"gap_pp": 20.69,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.1,
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.54,
"gap_pp": -27.19,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.03,
"gap_pp": -4.83,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.97,
"gap_pp": 4.83,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 5.66,
"early": 5.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 16.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 16.36,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.01,
"early": 4.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.1,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.53,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.54,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.78,
"early": 1.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.03,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.01,
"early": 2.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.97,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 20.7,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.34,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.66,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0877,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1636,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0877,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+109.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ammanford AFC",
"sort_key": 10228.93,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"alert_team": "Ammanford AFC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 27.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -27.23,
"hero_label": "Cardiff MET",
"market_prob_pct": 16.4,
"market_team": "Cardiff MET",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Ammanford AFC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ammanford AFC), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ammanford AFC), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0877,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010971999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ammanford AFC at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ammanford AFC as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ammanford AFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ammanford AFC), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0877,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.66,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1636,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17667844522968199,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+109.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "3/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (27 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 27.23,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 27.23,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"steam_team": "Ammanford AFC",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Ammanford AFC), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ammanford AFC), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ammanford AFC), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0877,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010971999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ammanford AFC at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ammanford AFC as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ammanford AFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ammanford AFC), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0877,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.66,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1636,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17667844522968199,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+109.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ammanford AFC 1.34 xG vs Cardiff MET 1.26 \u2192 Ammanford AFC 37.1%",
"Market: Cardiff MET ~16.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Ammanford AFC \u2193 -4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ammanford AFC, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 20.7,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Ammanford AFC",
"market_prob": 16.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.53,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -27.23,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Cardiff MET",
"market_prob": 60.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -27.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Cardiff MET",
"market_prob_pct": 60.54,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ammanford AFC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Cardiff MET\u0027s win probability at 60.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 27.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 27.23,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ammanford AFC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 16.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.7,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.7,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Ammanford AFC \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+20.7 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ammanford AFC 1.34 xG vs Cardiff MET 1.26 \u2192 Ammanford AFC 37.1%",
"Market: Cardiff MET ~16.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Ammanford AFC \u2193 -4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ammanford AFC, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -27.23,
"hero_label": "Cardiff MET",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Ammanford AFC odds shortened \u2193 -4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 27.23,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Cardiff MET",
"largest_gap_pp": -27.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Cardiff MET higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 27.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 20.7,
"edge_pp": 20.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ammanford AFC",
"market_prob_pct": 16.36,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.53,
"edge_pp": 6.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -27.23,
"edge_pp": -27.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cardiff MET",
"market_prob_pct": 60.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cardiff MET (16.4%).",
"Ammanford AFC has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.8%, 3/12).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ammanford AFC, Market \u2192 Cardiff MET, Recent sharp money \u2192 Ammanford AFC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 65.36,
"closing_odds": 1.53,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 65.36,
"entry_odds": 1.53,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "3/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 37m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Ammanford AFC (swing 5.66 \u2192 4.45 \u2192 5.00) \u2014 net 4.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.66",
"5.33",
"5.00"
],
"display": "5.66 \u2192 4.45 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 37m",
"pick_team": "Ammanford AFC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.66"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.25,
5.66,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,11.2 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.66"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Ammanford AFC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Ammanford AFC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/12",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "Ammanford AFC",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_team_name": "Ammanford AFC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 27.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cardiff MET",
"away_team_id": 353,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/353.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cardiff MET",
"away_team_public_id": "3j5HN7PT8GHddN",
"away_team_slug": "cardiff-met",
"country_code": "GB-WLS",
"country_display_name": "Wales",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-wls.svg",
"country_id": 167,
"country_name": "Wales",
"fixture_id": 1575925,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Wales",
"home_team_display_name": "Ammanford AFC",
"home_team_id": 2188,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2188.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ammanford AFC",
"home_team_public_id": "2ooXKtPgK6LEbg",
"home_team_slug": "ammanford-afc",
"league_country": "Wales",
"league_country_display": "Wales",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Wales",
"league_id": 110,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/110.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Wales",
"league_public_id": "2Ov0m2mbKv4WSg",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-31 13:30:00",
"public_id": "2CT4eBxx0j1vi7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ammanford",
"venue_name": "Ammanford Recreation Ground"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3553,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0966,
"ev": -0.2216,
"implied_prob": 0.6054,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6054,
"draw": 0.231,
"home": 0.1636
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.5088
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1805,
"best_odd": 4.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0267,
"implied_prob": 0.231,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6054,
"draw": 0.231,
"home": 0.1636
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2427
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1379,
"best_odd": 5.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0285,
"ev": 0.0877,
"implied_prob": 0.1636,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6054,
"draw": 0.231,
"home": 0.1636
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.1922
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.3201,
"ev": -0.4898,
"implied_prob": 0.6536,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.01,
"edge": 0.0466,
"ev": 0.1869,
"implied_prob": 0.2494,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 5.66,
"edge": 0.1939,
"ev": 1.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.1767,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0877,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0972,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0877,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ammanford AFC), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0877,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010971999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ammanford AFC at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ammanford AFC as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ammanford AFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ammanford AFC), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0877,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.66,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1636,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17667844522968199,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+109.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.66,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0285,
"ev": 0.0877,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1636,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ammanford AFC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1575925,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0877,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cardiff MET",
"home": "Ammanford AFC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.035742,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0877,
"implied_prob": 0.1636,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ammanford AFC",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0877,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.66,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1636,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17667844522968199,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+109.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1575925,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T13:29:17.016235+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ammanford AFC & Cardiff MET!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Ngoại hạng Wales — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 | Penybont | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | GAP Connah's Quay FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Barry Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Llandudno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Trefelin | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Flint Town United | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Holywell | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 33 | 11 | +22 | 22 |
| 2 | The New Saints | 10 | 26 | 4 | +22 | 28 |
| 3 | Barry Town | 10 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | GAP Connah's Quay FC | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 22 |
| 5 | Penybont | 10 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 24 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 9 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 14 |
| 8 | Llandudno | 10 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 9 | Airbus UK | 10 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 10 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Holywell | 10 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 1 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 10 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 2 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 7 | 28 | -21 | 3 |
| 16 | Trefelin | 10 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 3 |
