The model missed the final outcome (Académico Viseu win 0–1).
The model had projected Gil Vicente at 44.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Gil Vicente Académico Viseu ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente | 44.1% | 40.3% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 30.5% | 31.5% | -1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Académico Viseu | 25.4% | 28.2% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Académico Viseu win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Académico Viseu win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gil Vicente 44.0% · Draw 30.6% · Académico Viseu 25.4%
- xG · Gil Vicente 1.41 — Académico Viseu 0.99
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gil Vicente 2.40 · Draw 3.07 · Académico Viseu 3.43
- Implied 1X2 · Gil Vicente 40.3% · Draw 31.5% · Académico Viseu 28.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gil Vicente 2.40 · Draw 3.07 · Académico Viseu 3.43
- Implied 1X2 · Gil Vicente 40.3% · Draw 31.5% · Académico Viseu 28.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Académico Viseu win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
81/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.4
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Académico Viseu win · Gil Vicente 0–1 Académico Viseu
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"btts_no_prob": 0.509,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.492,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"home_win_prob": 0.4408,
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"over_25_prob": 0.43,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.57
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Gil Vicente or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
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},
"away_xg": 0.99,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"edge": 0.0375,
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
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}
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"risk_key": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 62.8,
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"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 75.6,
"no_prob": 50.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 49.1
},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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"label": "Gil Vicente or Draw",
"prob": 74.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Gil Vicente or Acad\u00e9mico Viseu",
"prob": 69.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Acad\u00e9mico Viseu",
"prob": 55.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Gil Vicente or Draw",
"pick_prob": 74.6
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 30.5,
"home_pct": 44.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Gil Vicente"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.4,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 5.8,
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"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Gil Vicente Win",
"model_prob": 44.1,
"odds": 2.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 31.5,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 19:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 19:00:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Gil Vicente",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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"gap_pp": 3.75,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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{
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{
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{
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"market_prob": 0.1538,
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"model_prob_pct": 12.8,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"top5": [
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{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.7
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{
"label": "0-0",
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{
"label": "2-0",
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.41,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": -0.0013,
"edge_pp": -0.1,
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"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3655,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
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"under": {
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1223,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 12.2,
"text": "+12.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.026,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "+2.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1223,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over_prob": 43.0,
"sort_key": 10110.07,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 57.0,
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},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0082,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4679,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.491,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4761,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0426,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0716,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0348,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0065,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0065,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no_prob": 50.8,
"sort_key": 5205.2,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 49.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": 0.0054,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.403,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0054,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4405,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0572,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Gil Vicente",
"sort_key": 5204.32,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 12.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +30.6%",
"alert_team": "Gil Vicente",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.78,
"hero_label": "Gil Vicente",
"market_prob_pct": 40.3,
"market_team": "Gil Vicente",
"model_prob_pct": 44.1,
"model_team": "Gil Vicente",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1223,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1223,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gil Vicente at 44.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gil Vicente as the value side (44.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gil Vicente",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0054,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.403,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4405,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0572,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "10/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7692307692307693,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.78,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.78,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.99,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 0.99 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +30.6%",
"steam_team": "Gil Vicente",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1223,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1223,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gil Vicente at 44.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gil Vicente as the value side (44.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gil Vicente",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0054,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.403,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4405,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0572,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gil Vicente 1.41 xG vs Acad\u00e9mico Viseu 0.99 \u2192 Gil Vicente 44.1%",
"Market: Gil Vicente ~40.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Gil Vicente odds \u2191 +30.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gil Vicente, but the market has moved away from Gil Vicente.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.78,
"fair_prob": 44.08,
"label": "Gil Vicente",
"market_prob": 40.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.96,
"fair_prob": 30.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.82,
"fair_prob": 25.38,
"label": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu",
"market_prob": 28.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.05,
"fair_prob": 43.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.05,
"fair_prob": 57.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.84,
"fair_prob": 49.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.94,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.08,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gil Vicente",
"market_prob_pct": 40.3,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Gil Vicente"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 3.78,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gil Vicente",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.8,
"model_prob_pct": 44.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gil Vicente 1.41 xG vs Acad\u00e9mico Viseu 0.99 \u2192 Gil Vicente 44.1%",
"Market: Gil Vicente ~40.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Gil Vicente odds \u2191 +30.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gil Vicente, but the market has moved away from Gil Vicente.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.78,
"hero_label": "Gil Vicente",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Gil Vicente odds lengthened \u2191 +30.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gil Vicente.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gil Vicente."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Gil Vicente (\u2191 +30.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/13) supports the current market view on Gil Vicente."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.78,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.5 pp (at 44.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.5,
"max_prob_pct": 44.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Gil Vicente",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.8,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.8,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.78,
"edge_pp": 3.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.08,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gil Vicente",
"market_prob_pct": 40.3,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.96,
"edge_pp": -0.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.82,
"edge_pp": -2.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.38,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu",
"market_prob_pct": 28.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gil Vicente.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gil Vicente (40.3%).",
"However, Gil Vicente has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +30.6%, 10/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gil Vicente, Market \u2192 Gil Vicente, while Gil Vicente odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.67,
"closing_odds": 2.4,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.67,
"entry_odds": 2.4,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 30.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/13 books lengthened Gil Vicente together (30.6% drift, score 62) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.40",
"2.10",
"1.80"
],
"display": "2.39 \u2192 1.68 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h 1m",
"pick_team": "Gil Vicente",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.39"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.68"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
2.4,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Gil Vicente odds \u2191 +30.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Gil Vicente",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Gil Vicente odds \u2191 +30.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.6%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Gil Vicente while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Gil Vicente",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.6%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Gil Vicente",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "Gil Vicente",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu",
"away_team_id": 238,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/238.webp",
"away_team_name": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu",
"away_team_public_id": "00w2TtfkAwozKk",
"away_team_slug": "academico-viseu",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1575486,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Gil Vicente",
"home_team_id": 762,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/762.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gil Vicente",
"home_team_public_id": "3UbJx7YOqOCDcj",
"home_team_slug": "gil-vicente",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Primeira Liga",
"league_id": 94,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/94.webp",
"league_name": "Primeira Liga",
"league_public_id": "3MSXUknHDsucZ6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 19:30:00",
"public_id": "4OWdZRehmd6JML",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Barcelos",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2873,
"best_odd": 3.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.282,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.282,
"draw": 0.315,
"home": 0.403
},
"model_prob": 0.2538,
"p_final": 0.2739
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2958,
"best_odd": 3.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0027,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.315,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.282,
"draw": 0.315,
"home": 0.403
},
"model_prob": 0.3058,
"p_final": 0.3123
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4247,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": 0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.403,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.282,
"draw": 0.315,
"home": 0.403
},
"model_prob": 0.4405,
"p_final": 0.4189
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.43,
"edge": -0.0378,
"ev": -0.1296,
"implied_prob": 0.2915,
"model_prob": 0.2538
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.07,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.0613,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.3058
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": 0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.4405
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3897,
"alpha_yes": 0.3548,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 2.05,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0194,
"edge_yes": 0.0184,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0348,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1036,
"ev_yes": 0.0065,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0716,
"implied_no": 0.5274,
"implied_yes": 0.4726,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3897,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5321,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5227
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3548,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.4761
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.5227,
"p_final_yes": 0.4761,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3655,
"alpha_under": 0.4021,
"best_over_odd": 2.61,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.615,
"edge_over": 0.0105,
"edge_under": -0.0105,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1223,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0879,
"ev_under": 0.026,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0829,
"implied_over": 0.4195,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4336,
"implied_under": 0.5805,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5664,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3655,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.0013,
"ev": -0.0879,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.4323
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4021,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": 0.0014,
"ev": -0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.5664,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.5679
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4323,
"p_final_under": 0.5679,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.4,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1223,
"implied_prob": 0.4195,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.43,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "over",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1223,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1223,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1223,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1223,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1223,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gil Vicente at 44.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gil Vicente as the value side (44.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gil Vicente",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gil Vicente, but the model still strongly favours Gil Vicente.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0054,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.403,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4405,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0572,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.491,
"draw_prob": 0.3058,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4405,
"over_prob": 0.43,
"total_xg": 2.4,
"under_prob": 0.57,
"xg_diff": 0.42
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1223,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4195,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.43,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": 0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.403,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4405,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gil Vicente"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3548,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0082,
"market_prob": 0.4679,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.491,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3897,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5321,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5227
},
"p_final": 0.4761,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0716,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3548,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.4761
}
},
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": 0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.4726,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3655,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": -0.0013,
"market_prob": 0.4336,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.43,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3655,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.0013,
"ev": -0.0879,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.4323
},
"p_final": 0.4323,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0879,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4021,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": 0.0014,
"ev": -0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.5664,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.5679
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": 0.1223,
"implied_prob": 0.4195,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1575486,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1223,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2538,
"draw": 0.3058,
"home": 0.4405
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1223,
"implied_prob": 0.4195,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.43,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1223,
"implied_prob": 0.4195,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.43,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu",
"home": "Gil Vicente"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0054,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.403,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4405,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0572,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1575486,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T19:43:41.350123+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Gil Vicente & Académico Viseu!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primeira Liga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Académico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Guimarães | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 7 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 7 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Estrela | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Arouca | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Famalicão | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Académico Viseu | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Alverca | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Marítimo | 7 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 7 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | SC Braga | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 13 | Nacional | 7 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Guimarães | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Estoril | 7 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 7 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 7 | 8.2 | 1.7 | +6.5 | 16 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 7 | 9.0 | 3.6 | +5.4 | 21 |
| 3 | Guimarães | 7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | +3.9 | 5 |
| 4 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | +3.8 | 8 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 7 | 7.3 | 3.7 | +3.6 | 15 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | +3.2 | 15 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | +1.4 | 11 |
| 8 | Marítimo | 7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | +0.1 | 8 |
| 9 | Estrela | 7 | 4.4 | 5.2 | -0.8 | 10 |
| 10 | Famalicão | 7 | 3.3 | 4.2 | -0.9 | 7 |
| 11 | Arouca | 7 | 4.8 | 6.4 | -1.6 | 11 |
| 12 | Alverca | 7 | 3.9 | 5.5 | -1.6 | 8 |
| 13 | Nacional | 7 | 4.6 | 7.5 | -2.9 | 4 |
| 14 | Estoril | 7 | 3.3 | 6.2 | -2.9 | 2 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 7 | 1.0 | 3.9 | -2.9 | 8 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2.3 | 6.3 | -4.0 | 4 |
| 17 | Académico Viseu | 7 | 4.8 | 9.0 | -4.2 | 11 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 7 | 2.4 | 8.3 | -5.9 | 4 |
