The model missed the final outcome (Rheindorf Altach win 4–0).
The model had projected First Vienna Nữ at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 First Vienna Nữ Rheindorf Altach ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rheindorf Altach | 34.7% | 32.8% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.6% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| First Vienna Nữ | 35.6% | 40.6% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Rheindorf Altach win 4–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned First Vienna Nữ; match finished Rheindorf Altach
Market lesson
The full-time result was Rheindorf Altach win 4–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rheindorf Altach 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · First Vienna Nữ 35.6%
- xG · Rheindorf Altach 1.29 — First Vienna Nữ 1.31
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rheindorf Altach 2.71 · Draw 3.34 · First Vienna Nữ 2.19
- Implied 1X2 · Rheindorf Altach 32.8% · Draw 26.6% · First Vienna Nữ 40.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rheindorf Altach 2.71 · Draw 3.34 · First Vienna Nữ 2.19
- Implied 1X2 · Rheindorf Altach 32.8% · Draw 26.6% · First Vienna Nữ 40.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rheindorf Altach win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
75/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.19
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Rheindorf Altach win · Rheindorf Altach 4–0 First Vienna Nữ
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or First Vienna N\u1eef",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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"selection": null,
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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"pick_key": "12",
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 10:03:14",
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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}
},
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"text": "+13.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10123.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1567,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4059,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0818,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.2,
"text": "-8.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"sort_key": 1779.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"alert_team": "Rheindorf Altach",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.95,
"hero_label": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 40.6,
"market_team": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (First Vienna N\u1eef)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (First Vienna N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates First Vienna N\u1eef at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies First Vienna N\u1eef as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (First Vienna N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4059,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4566210045662101,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.95,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.95,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"steam_team": "Rheindorf Altach",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (First Vienna N\u1eef).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (First Vienna N\u1eef)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (First Vienna N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates First Vienna N\u1eef at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies First Vienna N\u1eef as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (First Vienna N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4059,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4566210045662101,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rheindorf Altach 1.29 xG vs First Vienna N\u1eef 1.31 \u2192 First Vienna N\u1eef 35.6%",
"Market: First Vienna N\u1eef ~40.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Rheindorf Altach odds \u2191 +6.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean First Vienna N\u1eef with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Rheindorf Altach",
"market_prob": 32.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.04,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 40.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.98,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.98,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.03,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.03,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 40.59,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Rheindorf Altach"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.95,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "First Vienna N\u1eef \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rheindorf Altach 1.29 xG vs First Vienna N\u1eef 1.31 \u2192 First Vienna N\u1eef 35.6%",
"Market: First Vienna N\u1eef ~40.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Rheindorf Altach odds \u2191 +6.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean First Vienna N\u1eef with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.95,
"hero_label": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Rheindorf Altach odds lengthened \u2191 +6.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Rheindorf Altach has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Rheindorf Altach \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Rheindorf Altach has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Rheindorf Altach \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Rheindorf Altach has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Rheindorf Altach."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.95,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.9,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rheindorf Altach",
"market_prob_pct": 32.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.04,
"edge_pp": 3.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.95,
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 40.59,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Rheindorf Altach \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers First Vienna N\u1eef (40.6%).",
"Rheindorf Altach odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.4%, 5/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"First Vienna N\u1eef \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.66,
"closing_odds": 2.19,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.66,
"entry_odds": 2.19,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Rheindorf Altach (6.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.71",
"2.53",
"2.35"
],
"display": "2.71 \u2192 2.35 \u2192 2.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 46m",
"pick_team": "Rheindorf Altach",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.71"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.71,
2.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.5",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.71"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/7 sportsbooks on Rheindorf Altach",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Rheindorf Altach",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Rheindorf Altach",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Rheindorf Altach",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Rheindorf Altach",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "first-vienna-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"away_team_id": 17576,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17576.webp",
"away_team_name": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"away_team_public_id": "5ayAMPwXpYp36o",
"away_team_slug": "first-vienna-w",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1574620,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "Rheindorf Altach",
"home_team_id": 24441,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24441.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rheindorf Altach",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Rheindorf Altach",
"home_team_public_id": "0Vxfk3QRtA2MH8",
"home_team_slug": "rheindorf-altach",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rheindorf-altach",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Frauenliga \u00c1o",
"league_id": 484,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/484.webp",
"league_name": "Frauenliga \u00c1o",
"league_public_id": "1ANiqp83WJFkOd",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 10:30:00",
"public_id": "0R4SElhCIbcQMw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4163,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1567,
"implied_prob": 0.4059,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4059,
"draw": 0.2661,
"home": 0.328
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3851
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2862,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4059,
"draw": 0.2661,
"home": 0.328
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2749
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.437,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.328,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4059,
"draw": 0.2661,
"home": 0.328
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3364
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.1007,
"ev": -0.2205,
"implied_prob": 0.4566,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": -0.0026,
"ev": -0.0087,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.0589,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1089,
"alpha_yes": 0.1498,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0903,
"edge_yes": -0.0903,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0637,
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1077,
"implied_no": 0.3647,
"implied_yes": 0.6353,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1089,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.3647,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3745
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1498,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1077,
"implied_prob": 0.6353,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6218
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3745,
"p_final_yes": 0.6218,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1989,
"alpha_under": 0.1447,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.485,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.1298,
"edge_under": 0.1298,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1287,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0456,
"implied_over": 0.6118,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6128,
"implied_under": 0.3882,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3872,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1989,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1287,
"implied_prob": 0.6128,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5868
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1447,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": -0.0456,
"implied_prob": 0.3872,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4061
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5868,
"p_final_under": 0.4061,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (First Vienna N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates First Vienna N\u1eef at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies First Vienna N\u1eef as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "First Vienna N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (First Vienna N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4059,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4566210045662101,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1567,
"implied_prob": 0.4059,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "First Vienna N\u1eef"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1089,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0098,
"market_prob": 0.3647,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1089,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.3647,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3745
},
"p_final": 0.3745,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0637,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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},
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"value_side": "no"
},
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},
"match_id": 1574620,
"match_regime": {
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"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
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},
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],
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"teams": {
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"home": "Rheindorf Altach"
},
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},
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"disagreement_level": "normal",
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"raw_edge_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.0,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1574620,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T10:29:14.635277+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Rheindorf Altach & First Vienna Nữ!
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Đăng ký ngay
Frauenliga Áo — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten Nữ | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz Nữ | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien Nữ | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Salzburg Nữ | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | First Vienna Nữ | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | SK Rapid Wien Nữ | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Südburgenland Nữ | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten Nữ | 7 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz Nữ | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien Nữ | 6 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | First Vienna Nữ | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | SK Rapid Wien Nữ | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 8 | Salzburg Nữ | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Südburgenland Nữ | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 2 |
| 10 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 4 |
