The model missed the final outcome (Deportivo de La Coruña W win 0–3).
The model had projected Granada at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Granada Deportivo de La Coruña W ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada | 39.0% | 38.1% | +0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.0% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Deportivo de La Coruña W | 31.5% | 34.0% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Deportivo de La Coruña W win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Granada; match finished Deportivo de La Coruña W
Market lesson
The full-time result was Deportivo de La Coruña W win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Granada 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Deportivo de La Coruña W 31.5%
- xG · Granada 1.38 — Deportivo de La Coruña W 1.22
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 09:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Granada 2.41 · Draw 3.28 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 2.70
- Implied 1X2 · Granada 38.1% · Draw 28.0% · Deportivo de La Coruña W 34.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Granada 2.41 · Draw 3.28 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 2.70
- Implied 1X2 · Granada 38.1% · Draw 28.0% · Deportivo de La Coruña W 34.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo de La Coruña W win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
87/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Deportivo de La Coruña W win · Granada 0–3 Deportivo de La Coruña W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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{
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},
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.073,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3806,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0676,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.8,
"text": "-6.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0608,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Granada",
"sort_key": 1783.1,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.49,
"hero_label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"market_prob_pct": 38.1,
"market_team": "Granada",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Granada",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Granada)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Granada)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.039,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.039,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Granada at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Granada as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Granada",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.9% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.9% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Granada).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3806,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0608,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.49,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.49,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Granada",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Granada)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Granada)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.039,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.039,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Granada at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Granada as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Granada",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.9% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.9% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Granada).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3806,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0608,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Granada 1.38 xG vs Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W 1.22 \u2192 Granada 39.0%",
"Market: Granada ~38.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Granada +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Granada with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.91,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Granada",
"market_prob": 38.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.57,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.49,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"market_prob": 33.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.53,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.53,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.25,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.25,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"market_prob_pct": 33.97,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Granada"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.49,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Granada",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Granada \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Granada 1.38 xG vs Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W 1.22 \u2192 Granada 39.0%",
"Market: Granada ~38.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Granada +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Granada with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.49,
"hero_label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Granada has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Granada.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Granada has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Granada."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Granada has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Granada."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.49,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.91,
"edge_pp": 0.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Granada",
"market_prob_pct": 38.06,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.57,
"edge_pp": 1.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.97,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.49,
"edge_pp": -2.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"market_prob_pct": 33.97,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Granada.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Granada (38.1%).",
"Granada \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.04,
"closing_odds": 2.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.04,
"entry_odds": 2.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Granada",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Granada",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-de-la-coruna-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"away_team_id": 6376,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6376.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"away_team_public_id": "5hwlthHr4i3Aqf",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-de-la-coruna-w",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1573590,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Granada",
"home_team_id": 22018,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22018.webp",
"home_team_name": "Granada",
"home_team_public_id": "3TAem54fDkW3JW",
"home_team_slug": "granada",
"ht.home_team_slug": "granada",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Femenina",
"league_id": 142,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/142.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Femenina",
"league_public_id": "3UVWpFHIZoilN7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 10:00:00",
"public_id": "27bMsAqu7jo9bm",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Ciudad Deportiva del Granada"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4333,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.1117,
"implied_prob": 0.3397,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3397,
"draw": 0.2797,
"home": 0.3806
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.329
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2929,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.2797,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3397,
"draw": 0.2797,
"home": 0.3806
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2843
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4439,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.3806,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3397,
"draw": 0.2797,
"home": 0.3806
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3846
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": -0.0555,
"ev": -0.1497,
"implied_prob": 0.3704,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2074,
"alpha_yes": 0.2074,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0525,
"edge_yes": 0.0525,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1564,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0998,
"ev_yes": 0.039,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.06,
"implied_no": 0.5085,
"implied_yes": 0.4915,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4973
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5027
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4973,
"p_final_yes": 0.5027,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2133,
"alpha_under": 0.2347,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.66,
"edge_over": 0.0353,
"edge_under": -0.0353,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0676,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0962,
"implied_over": 0.4467,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4474,
"implied_under": 0.5533,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5445
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4548,
"p_final_under": 0.5445,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.039,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.039,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.039,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Granada)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.039,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.039,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Granada at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Granada as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Granada",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.9% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.9% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Granada).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3806,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0608,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.039,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4915,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.3806,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Granada"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.4918,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4973
},
"p_final": 0.5027,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5027
}
},
"edge": 0.0525,
"ev": 0.039,
"implied_prob": 0.4915,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"p_final": 0.4548,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5445
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4467,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1573590,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.039,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"home": "Granada"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3806,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0608,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1573590,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T10:01:22.908747+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Granada & Deportivo de La Coruña W!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División Femenina — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona Nữ | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid Nữ | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Athletic Club Nữ | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar Nữ | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atlético Madrid Nữ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Edf Logroño W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Sevilla Nữ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Granada | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Espanyol Nữ | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad Nữ | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | Granadilla Tenerife Nữ | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona Nữ | 5 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid Nữ | 5 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Espanyol Nữ | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Athletic Club Nữ | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atlético Madrid Nữ | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad Nữ | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2 |
| 9 | Granada | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Edf Logroño W | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Sevilla Nữ | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Eibar Nữ | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Valencia W | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 |
| 16 | Granadilla Tenerife Nữ | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 |
