The model missed the final outcome (Llanera win 2–1).
The model had projected Racing Santander II at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Racing Santander II Llanera ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llanera | 31.9% | 37.9% | -5.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.2% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Racing Santander II | 38.5% | 35.0% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Llanera's win probability at 37.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Llanera win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Llanera. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Racing Santander II by 5.9 percentage points (44.4% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Llanera 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Racing Santander II 38.5%
- xG · Llanera 1.23 — Racing Santander II 1.37
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Llanera 2.42 · Draw 3.37 · Racing Santander II 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Llanera 37.9% · Draw 27.2% · Racing Santander II 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Llanera 2.42 · Draw 3.37 · Racing Santander II 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Llanera 37.9% · Draw 27.2% · Racing Santander II 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Llanera win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
24/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.42
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Llanera win · Llanera 2–1 Racing Santander II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f0a49e95028f4f328154727358dbd2ca13d757637d04781fb5b4bca417706f16",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"away_win_prob": 0.3849,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.6,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.13,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"home_win_prob": 0.3194,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Racing Santander II",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Racing Santander II"
},
"away_xg": 1.37,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Racing Santander II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.035,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3496,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.5,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.62
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.62,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Racing Santander II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.86,
"market_odds": 2.62,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 0.3,
"value_pct": 0.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 74.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 70.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.37,
"home_expected": 1.23,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Llanera or Draw",
"prob": 61.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Llanera or Racing Santander II",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Racing Santander II",
"prob": 68.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Llanera or Racing Santander II",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 31.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Racing Santander II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 0.9,
"implied_prob": 38.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Racing Santander II Win",
"model_prob": 38.5,
"odds": 2.62
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Racing Santander II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.96,
"draw": 27.18,
"home": 37.85
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 10:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 10:02:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Llanera",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.85,
"gap_pp": -5.9,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.18,
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.96,
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.11,
"gap_pp": -3.91,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.89,
"gap_pp": 3.91,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_closing_pct": 37.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.85,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.37,
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"implied_closing_pct": 27.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
"closing": 2.62,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.82,
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"implied_closing_pct": 52.11,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.98,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2125,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.915,
"edge": 0.0079,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.481,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2338,
"best_odd": 1.775,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0942,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5103
},
"p_final": 0.4889,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.008,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"under": {
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"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4889
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0256,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0256,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5220.48,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2182,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0044,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.4357,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2182,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.4357,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4401
},
"p_final": 0.4401,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0492,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0823,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.24,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.0993,
"implied_prob": 0.5643,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5594
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0196,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0196,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1795.1,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0449,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0449,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0077,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Racing Santander II",
"sort_key": 1788.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"alert_team": "Racing Santander II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.91,
"hero_label": "Llanera",
"market_prob_pct": 35.0,
"market_team": "Llanera",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Racing Santander II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0256,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Santander II at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Santander II as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Santander II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0449,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0077,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.91,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.91,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"steam_team": "Racing Santander II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0256,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Santander II at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Santander II as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Santander II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0449,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0077,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Llanera 1.23 xG vs Racing Santander II 1.37 \u2192 Racing Santander II 38.5%",
"Market: Llanera ~35.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Racing Santander II odds \u2191 +15.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Racing Santander II, but the market has moved away from Racing Santander II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.91,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Llanera",
"market_prob": 37.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.39,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.53,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Racing Santander II",
"market_prob": 34.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.45,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.45,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.08,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.08,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Llanera",
"market_prob_pct": 37.85,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Racing Santander II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Llanera\u0027s win probability at 37.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Racing Santander II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Llanera 1.23 xG vs Racing Santander II 1.37 \u2192 Racing Santander II 38.5%",
"Market: Llanera ~35.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Racing Santander II odds \u2191 +15.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Racing Santander II, but the market has moved away from Racing Santander II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.91,
"hero_label": "Llanera",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Racing Santander II odds lengthened \u2191 +15.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Racing Santander II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Llanera. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Racing Santander II \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Llanera. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Racing Santander II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Racing Santander II \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Llanera above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Racing Santander II has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Llanera",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Llanera higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.91,
"edge_pp": -5.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Llanera",
"market_prob_pct": 37.85,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.39,
"edge_pp": 2.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.18,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.53,
"edge_pp": 3.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Racing Santander II",
"market_prob_pct": 34.96,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Racing Santander II \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Llanera (35.0%).",
"Racing Santander II odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +15.9%, 5/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Racing Santander II, Market \u2192 Llanera, while Racing Santander II odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.32,
"closing_odds": 2.42,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.32,
"entry_odds": 2.42,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Racing Santander II (15.9%, 5/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.62",
"2.41",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.70 \u2192 2.18 \u2192 2.55",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 45m",
"pick_team": "Racing Santander II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.18"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.62,
2.55
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/9 sportsbooks on Racing Santander II",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Racing Santander II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Racing Santander II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Racing Santander II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Racing Santander II",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_team_name": "Racing Santander II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "racing-santander-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Racing Santander II",
"away_team_id": 9643,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9643.webp",
"away_team_name": "Racing Santander II",
"away_team_public_id": "4D7YcfxgVO91vw",
"away_team_slug": "racing-santander-ii",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572062,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Llanera",
"home_team_id": 9627,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9627.webp",
"home_team_name": "Llanera",
"home_team_public_id": "52nw9YEn8hzK0b",
"home_team_slug": "llanera",
"ht.home_team_slug": "llanera",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_id": 875,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/875.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_public_id": "2MK1lOWXhKWZpA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 10:30:00",
"public_id": "3fu0w70fHgOxf5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4264,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3496,
"draw": 0.2718,
"home": 0.3785
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3646
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2892,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3496,
"draw": 0.2718,
"home": 0.3785
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2788
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4102,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0242,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.3785,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3496,
"draw": 0.2718,
"home": 0.3785
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3543
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": 0.0077,
"implied_prob": 0.3817,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0029,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.0937,
"ev": -0.2268,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2182,
"alpha_yes": 0.24,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0208,
"edge_yes": -0.0208,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0196,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0823,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0993,
"implied_no": 0.4352,
"implied_yes": 0.5648,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2182,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.4357,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4401
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.24,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.0993,
"implied_prob": 0.5643,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5594
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4401,
"p_final_yes": 0.5594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2338,
"alpha_under": 0.2125,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 1.98,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.775,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.915,
"edge_over": -0.0345,
"edge_under": 0.0345,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0942,
"ev_under": 0.0256,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0638,
"implied_over": 0.5165,
"implied_over_mf": 0.519,
"implied_under": 0.4835,
"implied_under_mf": 0.481,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2338,
"best_odd": 1.775,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0942,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5103
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2125,
"best_odd": 1.915,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4889
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5103,
"p_final_under": 0.4889,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0256,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0256,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0256,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Santander II at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Santander II as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Santander II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Racing Santander II, but the model still strongly favours Racing Santander II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0449,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0077,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0256,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4835,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Racing Santander II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2182,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0044,
"market_prob": 0.4357,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2182,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.4357,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4401
},
"p_final": 0.4401,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0823,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.24,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.0993,
"implied_prob": 0.5643,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5594
}
},
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0196,
"implied_prob": 0.4352,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2125,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.915,
"edge": 0.0079,
"market_prob": 0.481,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2338,
"best_odd": 1.775,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0942,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5103
},
"p_final": 0.4889,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2125,
"best_odd": 1.915,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4889
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.0256,
"implied_prob": 0.4835,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1572062,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0256,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Racing Santander II",
"home": "Llanera"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0449,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0077,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572062,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T10:29:08.150009+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Llanera & Racing Santander II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Segunda División RFEF - Nhóm 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Ourense CF | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Gernika | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Bergantiños | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Coruxo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Basconia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Compostela | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo B | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Arosa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Llanera | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gernika | 3 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 7 |
| 2 | Bergantiños | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Basconia | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Ourense CF | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Eibar II | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Coruxo | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Arosa | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | Portugalete | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo B | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Compostela | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Llanera | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
