AI correctly predicted the Villarreal II win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Villarreal II Villarreal II ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid II | 33.3% | 38.2% | -4.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.4% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Villarreal II | 37.1% | 34.3% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Villarreal II win 1–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Villarreal II win 1–3).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atlético Madrid II 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Villarreal II 37.0%
- xG · Atlético Madrid II 1.26 — Villarreal II 1.34
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atlético Madrid II 2.40 · Draw 3.34 · Villarreal II 2.67
- Implied 1X2 · Atlético Madrid II 38.2% · Draw 27.4% · Villarreal II 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atlético Madrid II 2.40 · Draw 3.34 · Villarreal II 2.67
- Implied 1X2 · Atlético Madrid II 38.2% · Draw 27.4% · Villarreal II 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Villarreal II win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
26/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.4
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Villarreal II win · Atlético Madrid II 1–3 Villarreal II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0518,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3434,
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+2.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.1%",
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"side_label": "Villarreal II",
"sort_key": 1787.05,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"alert_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.9,
"hero_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"market_prob_pct": 34.3,
"market_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Villarreal II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0671,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0671,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarreal II at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarreal II as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarreal II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal II).",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0518,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.9,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"steam_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0671,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0671,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarreal II at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarreal II as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarreal II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal II).",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0518,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II 1.26 xG vs Villarreal II 1.34 \u2192 Villarreal II 37.1%",
"Market: Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II ~34.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II odds \u2191 +10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Villarreal II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.9,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"market_prob": 38.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.18,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.72,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Villarreal II",
"market_prob": 34.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.88,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.88,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.11,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.11,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"market_prob_pct": 38.21,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Villarreal II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.8,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Villarreal II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II 1.26 xG vs Villarreal II 1.34 \u2192 Villarreal II 37.1%",
"Market: Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II ~34.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II odds \u2191 +10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Villarreal II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.9,
"hero_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II odds lengthened \u2191 +10.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II (\u2191 +10.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.9,
"edge_pp": -4.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"market_prob_pct": 38.21,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.18,
"edge_pp": 2.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.72,
"edge_pp": 2.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Villarreal II",
"market_prob_pct": 34.34,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II (34.3%).",
"Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.7%, 6/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Villarreal II, Market \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II, while Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.67,
"closing_odds": 2.4,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.67,
"entry_odds": 2.4,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 64h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II (10.7%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.40",
"2.27",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.40 \u2192 2.13 \u2192 2.38",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 64h 49m",
"pick_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.13"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.4,
2.38
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/8 sportsbooks on Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "villarreal-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Villarreal II",
"away_team_id": 9595,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9595.webp",
"away_team_name": "Villarreal II",
"away_team_public_id": "3YS3QbEJANTGDh",
"away_team_slug": "villarreal-ii",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1571138,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"home_team_id": 9570,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9570.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"home_team_public_id": "62L5Yq5gG6my8I",
"home_team_slug": "atletico-madrid-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "atletico-madrid-ii",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_id": 436,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/436.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_public_id": "504vZPezCkhYyG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 17:00:00",
"public_id": "61jWcpYIOPbRLA",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4317,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.3434,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3434,
"draw": 0.2745,
"home": 0.3821
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3551
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2903,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0623,
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3434,
"draw": 0.2745,
"home": 0.3821
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2808
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4172,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.1317,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3434,
"draw": 0.2745,
"home": 0.3821
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3618
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": -0.004,
"ev": -0.0107,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": -0.0034,
"ev": -0.0114,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0832,
"ev": -0.1996,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1685,
"alpha_yes": 0.2316,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.58,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0411,
"edge_yes": -0.0411,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.073,
"ev_yes": -0.1389,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1043,
"implied_no": 0.4139,
"implied_yes": 0.5861,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1685,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.4122,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4194
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2316,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.5878,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5779
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4194,
"p_final_yes": 0.5779,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2262,
"alpha_under": 0.2057,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.06,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.99,
"edge_over": -0.0588,
"edge_under": 0.0588,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1052,
"ev_under": 0.0671,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0597,
"implied_over": 0.5408,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5393,
"implied_under": 0.4592,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4607,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5263,
"p_final_under": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0671,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0671,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0671,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0671,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0671,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarreal II at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarreal II as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarreal II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal II).",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0518,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.3434,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Villarreal II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1685,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0072,
"market_prob": 0.4122,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1685,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.4122,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4194
},
"p_final": 0.4194,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.073,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2316,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.5878,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5779
}
},
"edge": 0.0411,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"market_prob": 0.4607,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"p_final": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0597,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0588,
"ev": 0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.4592,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1571138,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0671,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Villarreal II",
"home": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.02433,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.4592,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0518,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571138,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T16:59:51.610934+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Atlético Madrid II & Villarreal II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División RFEF - Nhóm 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Alcorcón | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Hércules | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Antequera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ibiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Huesca | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Madrid II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Águilas CF | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Algeciras | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Europa FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 19 | Teruel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 |
| 3 | Alcorcón | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Zaragoza | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Real Jaén | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Real Murcia | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Antequera | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Ibiza | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Algeciras | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Hércules | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Rayo Majadahonda | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 16 | Real Madrid II | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 17 | Huesca | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Águilas CF | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Teruel | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 2 |
