The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Real Madrid II at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Real Madrid II Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sant Andreu | 31.5% | 34.4% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.9% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Real Madrid II | 39.0% | 36.8% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Real Madrid II; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sant Andreu 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Real Madrid II 39.0%
- xG · Sant Andreu 1.22 — Real Madrid II 1.38
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sant Andreu 2.60 · Draw 3.09 · Real Madrid II 2.43
- Implied 1X2 · Sant Andreu 34.4% · Draw 28.9% · Real Madrid II 36.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sant Andreu 2.60 · Draw 3.09 · Real Madrid II 2.43
- Implied 1X2 · Sant Andreu 34.4% · Draw 28.9% · Real Madrid II 36.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
85/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sant Andreu 1–1 Real Madrid II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Sant Andreu or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
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"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Sant Andreu"
},
"away_xg": 1.38,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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},
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"away_played": 3,
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sant Andreu or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sant Andreu or Real Madrid II",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.5,
"lean_key": "away",
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": -5.4,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Real Madrid II Win",
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"odds": 2.43
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 28.9,
"home": 34.35
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-23 18:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-23 18:29:29",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sant Andreu",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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"lean_card": {
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"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
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{
"label": "2-1",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.22,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"edge": 0.0072,
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"p_final": 0.4554,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.4,
"text": "-10.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0078,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.5075,
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"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
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"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.1008,
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},
"p_final": 0.5153,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0208,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0725,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1336,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.4,
"text": "-13.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0173,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.7,
"text": "+1.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0173,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 5213.84,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0835,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.3,
"text": "-8.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3675,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0835,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.3,
"text": "-8.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.053,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Real Madrid II",
"sort_key": 1779.125,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"alert_team": "Real Madrid II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.87,
"hero_label": "Sant Andreu",
"market_prob_pct": 36.8,
"market_team": "Real Madrid II",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Real Madrid II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Madrid II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Madrid II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Madrid II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0835,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3675,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.053,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.87,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"steam_team": "Real Madrid II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Madrid II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Madrid II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Madrid II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0835,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3675,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.053,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sant Andreu 1.22 xG vs Real Madrid II 1.38 \u2192 Real Madrid II 39.0%",
"Market: Real Madrid II ~36.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Real Madrid II odds \u2191 +15.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Real Madrid II, but the market has moved away from Real Madrid II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.87,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Sant Andreu",
"market_prob": 34.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.64,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.22,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Real Madrid II",
"market_prob": 36.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.56,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.56,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.76,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.76,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sant Andreu",
"market_prob_pct": 34.35,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Real Madrid II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Real Madrid II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sant Andreu 1.22 xG vs Real Madrid II 1.38 \u2192 Real Madrid II 39.0%",
"Market: Real Madrid II ~36.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Real Madrid II odds \u2191 +15.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Real Madrid II, but the market has moved away from Real Madrid II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.87,
"hero_label": "Sant Andreu",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Real Madrid II odds lengthened \u2191 +15.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Real Madrid II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Real Madrid II \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Real Madrid II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Real Madrid II \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Real Madrid II has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Real Madrid II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Sant Andreu",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.87,
"edge_pp": -2.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sant Andreu",
"market_prob_pct": 34.35,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.64,
"edge_pp": 0.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.22,
"edge_pp": 2.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Real Madrid II",
"market_prob_pct": 36.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Real Madrid II \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Real Madrid II (36.8%).",
"However, Real Madrid II has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +15.6%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Real Madrid II, Market \u2192 Real Madrid II, while Real Madrid II odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
"closing_odds": 2.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
"entry_odds": 2.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 18m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books lengthened Real Madrid II together (15.6% drift, score 55) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.60",
"2.42",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.70 \u2192 1.89 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 18m",
"pick_team": "Real Madrid II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.89"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.43,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,8.7 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Real Madrid II",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Real Madrid II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Market moved away from Real Madrid II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Real Madrid II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Real Madrid II",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Real Madrid II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "real-madrid-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Real Madrid II",
"away_team_id": 9575,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9575.webp",
"away_team_name": "Real Madrid II",
"away_team_public_id": "2SPmUN25J5m7OT",
"away_team_slug": "real-madrid-ii",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1571133,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Sant Andreu",
"home_team_id": 5277,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5277.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sant Andreu",
"home_team_public_id": "4N1REsICNnjOgW",
"home_team_slug": "sant-andreu",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sant-andreu",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_id": 436,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/436.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_public_id": "504vZPezCkhYyG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-23 19:00:00",
"public_id": "4oc0oOkNn6bBWE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Barcelona",
"venue_name": "Can Drago"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.435,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0835,
"implied_prob": 0.3675,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3675,
"draw": 0.289,
"home": 0.3435
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3771
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2971,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3675,
"draw": 0.289,
"home": 0.3435
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2909
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4307,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1389,
"implied_prob": 0.3435,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3675,
"draw": 0.289,
"home": 0.3435
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3312
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.0531,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.09,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.0872,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0697,
"ev": -0.1812,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2127,
"alpha_yes": 0.2127,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0376,
"edge_yes": 0.0376,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1336,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1008,
"ev_yes": 0.0173,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0725,
"implied_no": 0.4936,
"implied_yes": 0.5064,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 1.855,
"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4847
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5153
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4847,
"p_final_yes": 0.5153,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2136,
"alpha_under": 0.2349,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.665,
"edge_over": 0.0356,
"edge_under": -0.0356,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0664,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0945,
"implied_over": 0.4464,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4482,
"implied_under": 0.5536,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5518,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4482,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4554
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2349,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0945,
"implied_prob": 0.5518,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5439
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4554,
"p_final_under": 0.5439,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Madrid II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Madrid II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Madrid II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Real Madrid II, but the model still strongly favours Real Madrid II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0835,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3675,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.053,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0835,
"implied_prob": 0.3675,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Real Madrid II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0078,
"market_prob": 0.5075,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 1.855,
"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4847
},
"p_final": 0.5153,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0725,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5153
}
},
"edge": 0.0376,
"ev": 0.0173,
"implied_prob": 0.5064,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0072,
"market_prob": 0.4482,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4482,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4554
},
"p_final": 0.4554,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0664,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2349,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0945,
"implied_prob": 0.5518,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5439
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0356,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571133,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Madrid II",
"home": "Sant Andreu"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0835,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3675,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.053,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571133,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T18:59:07.232336+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Sant Andreu & Real Madrid II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División RFEF - Nhóm 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Hércules | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Alcorcón | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Antequera | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Águilas CF | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Huesca | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Algeciras | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Teruel | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Zaragoza | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Ibiza | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Algeciras | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 9 | Alcorcón | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Antequera | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Hércules | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Rayo Majadahonda | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 16 | Águilas CF | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Madrid II | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 18 | Huesca | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 20 | Teruel | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 1 |
