The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Rayo Majadahonda at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Rayo Majadahonda Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Majadahonda | 35.2% | 25.1% | +10.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.4% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| FC Cartagena | 35.2% | 44.6% | -9.4 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Rayo Majadahonda's win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.1%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Rayo Majadahonda.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Rayo Majadahonda; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Rayo Majadahonda by 10.1 percentage points (25.1% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rayo Majadahonda 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · FC Cartagena 35.2%
- xG · Rayo Majadahonda 1.30 — FC Cartagena 1.30
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rayo Majadahonda 3.64 · Draw 3.01 · FC Cartagena 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · Rayo Majadahonda 25.1% · Draw 30.4% · FC Cartagena 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rayo Majadahonda 3.70 · Draw 3.05 · FC Cartagena 2.08
- Implied 1X2 · Rayo Majadahonda 25.1% · Draw 30.4% · FC Cartagena 44.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Rayo Majadahonda 1–1 FC Cartagena
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
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"away_xg": 1.3,
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"confidence": null,
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},
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:59:46",
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"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Rayo Majadahonda",
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.12,
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{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
{
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{
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.181,
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"label": "1-1",
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"prob": 12.6
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"top5": [
{
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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{
"label": "2-1",
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"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"edge": 0.0206,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 11.0,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -24.9,
"text": "-24.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.199,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": 19.9,
"text": "+19.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.199,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10329.1,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0166,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.3712,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
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"over": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "+22.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2243,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10201.87,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0222,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0222,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3017,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"sort_key": 5217.76,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"alert_team": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.12,
"hero_label": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"market_prob_pct": 25.1,
"market_team": "FC Cartagena",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3016,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rayo Majadahonda at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rayo Majadahonda as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Rayo Majadahonda \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571122 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0222,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3017,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.12,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.12,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"steam_team": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3016,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rayo Majadahonda at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rayo Majadahonda as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Rayo Majadahonda \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571122 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0222,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3017,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rayo Majadahonda 1.30 xG vs FC Cartagena 1.30 \u2192 Rayo Majadahonda 35.2%",
"Market: FC Cartagena ~25.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Rayo Majadahonda odds \u2191 +13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rayo Majadahonda, but the market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 10.12,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"market_prob": 25.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.74,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.39,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "FC Cartagena",
"market_prob": 44.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.75,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.75,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.75,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.75,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"market_prob_pct": 25.05,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Rayo Majadahonda"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Rayo Majadahonda\u0027s win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.1%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.12,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.1,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rayo Majadahonda 1.30 xG vs FC Cartagena 1.30 \u2192 Rayo Majadahonda 35.2%",
"Market: FC Cartagena ~25.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Rayo Majadahonda odds \u2191 +13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rayo Majadahonda, but the market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.12,
"hero_label": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Rayo Majadahonda odds lengthened \u2191 +13.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Rayo Majadahonda.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Rayo Majadahonda.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Rayo Majadahonda.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Rayo Majadahonda."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Rayo Majadahonda more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Rayo Majadahonda (\u2191 +13.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Rayo Majadahonda."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.12,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.1,
"lead": "The model rates Rayo Majadahonda considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 10.12,
"edge_pp": 10.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"market_prob_pct": 25.05,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.74,
"edge_pp": -0.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.39,
"edge_pp": -9.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Cartagena",
"market_prob_pct": 44.56,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Rayo Majadahonda.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FC Cartagena (25.1%).",
"However, Rayo Majadahonda has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +13.3%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Rayo Majadahonda, Market \u2192 FC Cartagena, while Rayo Majadahonda odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.03,
"closing_odds": 3.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.03,
"entry_odds": 3.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 49h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Rayo Majadahonda (13.3%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.35",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.70 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 49h 58m",
"pick_team": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.7,
3.64,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,1.5 56.0,7.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Rayo Majadahonda",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Rayo Majadahonda while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-cartagena",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Cartagena",
"away_team_id": 5262,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5262.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Cartagena",
"away_team_public_id": "259yZ7cDtJs2o3",
"away_team_slug": "fc-cartagena",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1571122,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"home_team_id": 861,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/861.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"home_team_public_id": "08jaDgOwT1Fwfs",
"home_team_slug": "rayo-majadahonda",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rayo-majadahonda",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_id": 436,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/436.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_public_id": "504vZPezCkhYyG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 19:00:00",
"public_id": "0alvRBLBnaVCvO",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Majadahonda",
"venue_name": "Estadio Cerro del Espino"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3867,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0363,
"ev": -0.1486,
"implied_prob": 0.4456,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4456,
"draw": 0.3039,
"home": 0.2505
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.4093
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2967,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0022,
"ev": -0.0799,
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4456,
"draw": 0.3039,
"home": 0.2505
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3017
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2544,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": 0.0222,
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4456,
"draw": 0.3039,
"home": 0.2505
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2763
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.129,
"ev": -0.2683,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0815,
"ev": 0.3016,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2068,
"alpha_yes": 0.188,
"best_no_odd": 1.65,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1075,
"edge_yes": 0.1075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2492,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1222,
"ev_yes": 0.199,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0422,
"implied_no": 0.5625,
"implied_yes": 0.4375,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2068,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0227,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5419
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.188,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4561
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5419,
"p_final_yes": 0.4561,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1501,
"alpha_under": 0.2064,
"best_over_odd": 2.54,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.47,
"edge_over": 0.1075,
"edge_under": -0.1075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2243,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0343,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1093,
"implied_over": 0.3745,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3712,
"implied_under": 0.6255,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6288,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3878
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2064,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.6288,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6059
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3878,
"p_final_under": 0.6059,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3016,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3016,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rayo Majadahonda at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rayo Majadahonda as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rayo Majadahonda",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Rayo Majadahonda \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571122 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rayo Majadahonda, but the model still strongly favours Rayo Majadahonda.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0222,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3017,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": 0.0222,
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Rayo Majadahonda"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.188,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.4355,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2068,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0227,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5419
},
"p_final": 0.4561,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0422,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.188,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4561
}
},
"edge": 0.1075,
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4375,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0166,
"market_prob": 0.3712,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3878
},
"p_final": 0.3878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2064,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.6288,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6059
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1075,
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571122,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2243,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Cartagena",
"home": "Rayo Majadahonda"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.108455,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4375,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0222,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3017,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571122,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T18:59:48.382029+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Rayo Majadahonda & FC Cartagena!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División RFEF - Nhóm 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Real Jaén | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Real Murcia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Ibiza | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Villarreal II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | FC Cartagena | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Atlético Madrid II | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Huesca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Real Madrid II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Antequera | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Águilas CF | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Alcorcón | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Zaragoza | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Hércules | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Juventud Torremolinos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 | Europa FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 19 | Teruel | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 20 | Algeciras | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Murcia | 2 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | Ibiza | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Villarreal II | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | FC Cartagena | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 7 | Atlético Madrid II | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 | Antequera | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Algeciras | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Huesca | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 11 | Alcorcón | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Águilas CF | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Hércules | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Rayo Majadahonda | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Real Madrid II | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 16 | Sant Andreu | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Juventud Torremolinos | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Zaragoza | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 20 | Teruel | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
