The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Deportivo La Coruña II at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Deportivo La Coruña II Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club II | 32.9% | 44.9% | -12.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.4% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Deportivo La Coruña II | 37.5% | 24.7% | +12.8 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Deportivo La Coruña II's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.7%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo La Coruña II.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Deportivo La Coruña II; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Deportivo La Coruña II by 12.8 percentage points (24.7% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Athletic Club II 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Deportivo La Coruña II 37.6%
- xG · Athletic Club II 1.25 — Deportivo La Coruña II 1.35
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Athletic Club II 2.04 · Draw 3.01 · Deportivo La Coruña II 3.70
- Implied 1X2 · Athletic Club II 44.9% · Draw 30.4% · Deportivo La Coruña II 24.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Athletic Club II 2.04 · Draw 3.01 · Deportivo La Coruña II 3.70
- Implied 1X2 · Athletic Club II 44.9% · Draw 30.4% · Deportivo La Coruña II 24.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
12/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Athletic Club II 2–2 Deportivo La Coruña II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
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"winner_name": "Athletic Club II"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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"market_comparison": [
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},
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"scores": [
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
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},
"over_under": {
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1491,
"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "-14.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10036.9,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0302,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 3.0,
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},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.3901,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+39.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"sort_key": 10027.18,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"alpha": 0.2136,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0072,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4483,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.4483,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4555
},
"p_final": 0.4555,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0095,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0639,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.235,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0919,
"implied_prob": 0.5517,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5438
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0122,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.109,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.9,
"text": "-10.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0122,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5209.76,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"alert_team": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.81,
"hero_label": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"market_prob_pct": 24.7,
"market_team": "Athletic Club II",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3899,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +39% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570746 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +39% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3901,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+39.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.81,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.81,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3899,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +39% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570746 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +39% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3901,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+39.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Athletic Club II 1.25 xG vs Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II 1.35 \u2192 Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II 37.5%",
"Market: Athletic Club II ~24.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II \u2193 -10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.01,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Athletic Club II",
"market_prob": 44.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.79,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.81,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"market_prob": 24.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.45,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.45,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.99,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.99,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 12.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"market_prob_pct": 24.73,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II\u0027s win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.7%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 12.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+12.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 12.8,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+12.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Athletic Club II 1.25 xG vs Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II 1.35 \u2192 Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II 37.5%",
"Market: Athletic Club II ~24.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II \u2193 -10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.81,
"hero_label": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II odds shortened \u2193 -10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II (\u2193 -10.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"largest_gap_pp": 12.8,
"lead": "The model rates Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.01,
"edge_pp": -12.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Athletic Club II",
"market_prob_pct": 44.86,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.79,
"edge_pp": -0.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.4,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 12.81,
"edge_pp": 12.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"market_prob_pct": 24.73,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Athletic Club II (24.7%).",
"However, Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -10.0%, 5/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II, Market \u2192 Athletic Club II, Recent sharp money \u2192 Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.03,
"closing_odds": 3.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.03,
"entry_odds": 3.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.1
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II (10.0%, 5/7) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.80",
"3.60"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"pick_team": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
3.7,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,13.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 5/7 sportsbooks on Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-la-coruna-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"away_team_id": 9610,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9610.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"away_team_public_id": "5cxsRVrF2m1t8x",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-la-coruna-ii",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570746,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Athletic Club II",
"home_team_id": 9579,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9579.webp",
"home_team_name": "Athletic Club II",
"home_team_public_id": "0IiMQMXh6u29uC",
"home_team_slug": "athletic-club-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "athletic-club-ii",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_id": 435,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/435.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_public_id": "2rWGCckC2HCYNB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 10:00:00",
"public_id": "16gzIjU2Y43ygt",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Lezama",
"venue_name": "Lezama Facilities"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2423,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0311,
"ev": 0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2473,
"draw": 0.304,
"home": 0.4486
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.2784
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2962,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0923,
"implied_prob": 0.304,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2473,
"draw": 0.304,
"home": 0.4486
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3016
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3691,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0443,
"ev": -0.1751,
"implied_prob": 0.4486,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2473,
"draw": 0.304,
"home": 0.4486
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.4044
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.1054,
"ev": 0.3899,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": -0.0366,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.1615,
"ev": -0.3294,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2096,
"alpha_yes": 0.2096,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0499,
"edge_yes": 0.0499,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1491,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1062,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0713,
"implied_no": 0.5049,
"implied_yes": 0.4951,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4911
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0713,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5089
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4911,
"p_final_yes": 0.5089,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2136,
"alpha_under": 0.235,
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.055,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0345,
"edge_under": -0.0345,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0122,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0639,
"ev_under": -0.109,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0919,
"implied_over": 0.4475,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4483,
"implied_under": 0.5525,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5517,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.4483,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4555
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.235,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0919,
"implied_prob": 0.5517,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5438
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4555,
"p_final_under": 0.5438,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3899,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.041,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3899,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +39% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570746 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +39% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3901,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+39.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.041,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4951,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0311,
"ev": 0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0096,
"market_prob": 0.4993,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4911
},
"p_final": 0.5089,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0713,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0713,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5089
}
},
"edge": 0.0499,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.4951,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0072,
"market_prob": 0.4483,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.4483,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4555
},
"p_final": 0.4555,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0639,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.235,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0919,
"implied_prob": 0.5517,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5438
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.4475,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1570746,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.041,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II",
"home": "Athletic Club II"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27027027027027023,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3901,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+39.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570746,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T09:59:52.923584+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Athletic Club II & Deportivo La Coruña II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División RFEF - Nhóm 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Athletic Club II | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Real Unión | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Mirandes | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Pontevedra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Zamora | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing Ferrol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | CD Coria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Mérida AD | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 19 | Arenas Getxo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Unión | 5 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 | Athletic Club II | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 11 |
| 3 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Mirandes | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | CD Coria | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 6 | Lugo | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Pontevedra | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 9 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Cacereño | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 11 | Zamora | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing Ferrol | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mérida AD | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Ponferradina | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 17 | Arenas Getxo | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Barakaldo | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
