The model missed the final outcome (Pelikan Łowicz win 1–3).
The model had projected Olimpia Zambrów at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Olimpia Zambrów Pelikan Łowicz ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpia Zambrów | 41.4% | 34.6% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 27.0% | +2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Pelikan Łowicz | 29.2% | 38.4% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Pelikan Łowicz's win probability at 38.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.2%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Pelikan Łowicz win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Pelikan Łowicz. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Olimpia Zambrów by 9.1 percentage points (50.5% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Olimpia Zambrów 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Pelikan Łowicz 29.3%
- xG · Olimpia Zambrów 1.43 — Pelikan Łowicz 1.17
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Olimpia Zambrów 2.57 · Draw 3.29 · Pelikan Łowicz 2.32
- Implied 1X2 · Olimpia Zambrów 34.6% · Draw 27.0% · Pelikan Łowicz 38.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Olimpia Zambrów 2.57 · Draw 3.29 · Pelikan Łowicz 2.32
- Implied 1X2 · Olimpia Zambrów 34.6% · Draw 27.0% · Pelikan Łowicz 38.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Pelikan Łowicz win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
18/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Pelikan Łowicz win · Olimpia Zambrów 1–3 Pelikan Łowicz
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"double_chance": {
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"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
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"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.4,
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"lean_key": "home",
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:02:20",
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"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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"text": "-26.2%"
},
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"text": "+23.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10209.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0402,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3462,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0402,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0632,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w",
"sort_key": 1789.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.1,
"hero_label": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"market_team": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0402,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3462,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0632,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.1,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.17,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.43,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.43 \u00b7 Away xG 1.17 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0402,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3462,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0632,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w 1.43 xG vs Pelikan \u0141owicz 1.17 \u2192 Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w 41.4%",
"Market: Pelikan \u0141owicz ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Pelikan \u0141owicz odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.78,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w",
"market_prob": 34.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.32,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.1,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"market_prob": 38.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.31,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.51,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.31,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.49,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.95,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.95,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"market_prob_pct": 38.35,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Pelikan \u0141owicz"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Pelikan \u0141owicz\u0027s win probability at 38.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.2%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.8,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w 1.43 xG vs Pelikan \u0141owicz 1.17 \u2192 Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w 41.4%",
"Market: Pelikan \u0141owicz ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Pelikan \u0141owicz odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.1,
"hero_label": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Pelikan \u0141owicz odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Pelikan \u0141owicz. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pelikan \u0141owicz.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Pelikan \u0141owicz. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pelikan \u0141owicz."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Pelikan \u0141owicz above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Pelikan \u0141owicz (\u2191 +10.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Pelikan \u0141owicz."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Pelikan \u0141owicz higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.78,
"edge_pp": 6.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w",
"market_prob_pct": 34.62,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.32,
"edge_pp": 2.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.04,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.1,
"edge_pp": -9.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"market_prob_pct": 38.35,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pelikan \u0141owicz.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Pelikan \u0141owicz (34.6%).",
"However, Pelikan \u0141owicz has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +10.0%, 5/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w, Market \u2192 Pelikan \u0141owicz, while Pelikan \u0141owicz odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.1,
"closing_odds": 2.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.1,
"entry_odds": 2.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Pelikan \u0141owicz (10.0%, 5/6) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.32",
"2.16",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.32 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"pick_team": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.32,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/6 sportsbooks on Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pelikan-owicz",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"away_team_id": 12829,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12829.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"away_team_public_id": "4o0PxHKUkjCqI0",
"away_team_slug": "pelikan-owicz",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1569116,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w",
"home_team_id": 6946,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6946.webp",
"home_team_name": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w",
"home_team_public_id": "05ppko8Fb2RLhh",
"home_team_slug": "olimpia-zambrow",
"ht.home_team_slug": "olimpia-zambrow",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III liga \u2013 Group 1",
"league_id": 780,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/780.webp",
"league_name": "III liga \u2013 Group 1",
"league_public_id": "4SPrtfKVV3K4DA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 13:00:00",
"public_id": "0qDzEys83nnWeX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3888,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0353,
"ev": -0.1922,
"implied_prob": 0.3835,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3835,
"draw": 0.2704,
"home": 0.3462
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.3482
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2896,
"best_odd": 3.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.2704,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3835,
"draw": 0.2704,
"home": 0.3462
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.2771
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4044,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.3462,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3835,
"draw": 0.2704,
"home": 0.3462
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.3735
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.1383,
"ev": -0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.2927
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.29,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.304,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": 0.0632,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.4137
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1528,
"alpha_yes": 0.2102,
"best_no_odd": 2.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0995,
"edge_yes": -0.0995,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1934,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0431,
"ev_yes": -0.221,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1127,
"implied_no": 0.3595,
"implied_yes": 0.6405,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3738
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1127,
"implied_prob": 0.6416,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6205
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3738,
"p_final_yes": 0.6205,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2025,
"alpha_under": 0.1473,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.52,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.31,
"edge_over": -0.1231,
"edge_under": 0.1231,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1205,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.042,
"implied_over": 0.6051,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6031,
"implied_under": 0.3949,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3969,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.6031,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5786
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4147
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5786,
"p_final_under": 0.4147,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0402,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3462,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0632,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.3462,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0154,
"market_prob": 0.3584,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3738
},
"p_final": 0.3738,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0431,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1127,
"implied_prob": 0.6416,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6205
}
},
"edge": 0.0995,
"ev": 0.1934,
"implied_prob": 0.3595,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.3969,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.6031,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5786
},
"p_final": 0.4147,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.042,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
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"p_final": 0.4147
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1231,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.3949,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1569116,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2927,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.4137
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.3949,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.3949,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pelikan \u0141owicz",
"home": "Olimpia Zambr\u00f3w"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088771,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1934,
"implied_prob": 0.3595,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0402,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3462,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0632,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1569116,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:02:22.499393+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Olimpia Zambrów & Pelikan Łowicz!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
III liga – Group 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszło | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Wigry Suwałki | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Pelikan Łowicz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Swit | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Warta Sieradz | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Widzew II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Olimpia Zambrów | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Olimpia Elbląg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 15 | Mławianka Mława | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 16 | Troszyn | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Łomża | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 10 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Weszło | 9 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 25 |
| 3 | Wisła Płock II | 10 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia II | 10 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 15 |
| 5 | Widzew II | 9 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 10 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Olimpia Zambrów | 10 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Mławianka Mława | 10 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 10 | Wigry Suwałki | 10 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 11 | Warta Sieradz | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 12 | Swit | 10 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 13 | Pelikan Łowicz | 10 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 14 | ŁKS Łódź II | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Olimpia Elbląg | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Łomża | 10 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 3 |
