The model missed the final outcome (Rimavská Sobota win 0–2).
The model had projected Dolný Kubín at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Dolný Kubín Rimavská Sobota ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolný Kubín | 35.2% | 40.5% | -5.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.5% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Rimavská Sobota | 35.2% | 35.1% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Dolný Kubín's win probability at 40.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Rimavská Sobota win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Dolný Kubín. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Dolný Kubín; match finished Rimavská Sobota
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dolný Kubín by 5.3 percentage points (40.5% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dolný Kubín 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Rimavská Sobota 35.2%
- xG · Dolný Kubín 1.30 — Rimavská Sobota 1.30
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:06 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dolný Kubín 2.20 · Draw 3.64 · Rimavská Sobota 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Dolný Kubín 40.5% · Draw 24.5% · Rimavská Sobota 35.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dolný Kubín 2.20 · Draw 3.64 · Rimavská Sobota 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Dolný Kubín 40.5% · Draw 24.5% · Rimavská Sobota 35.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rimavská Sobota win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
73/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.2
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Rimavská Sobota win · Dolný Kubín 0–2 Rimavská Sobota
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10254.79,
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1578,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
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"max_ev": -0.0573,
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"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"sort_key": 1785.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"alert_team": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.31,
"hero_label": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"market_prob_pct": 40.5,
"market_team": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1578,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.31,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.31,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"steam_team": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1578,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn 1.30 xG vs Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota 1.30 \u2192 Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn 35.2%",
"Market: Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn ~40.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota odds \u2191 +28.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.31,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"market_prob": 40.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.19,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.11,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"market_prob": 35.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.0,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.0,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.69,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 67.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.69,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 32.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"market_prob_pct": 40.48,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn\u0027s win probability at 40.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.31,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn 1.30 xG vs Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota 1.30 \u2192 Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn 35.2%",
"Market: Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn ~40.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota odds \u2191 +28.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.31,
"hero_label": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota odds lengthened \u2191 +28.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.31,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.31,
"edge_pp": -5.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"market_prob_pct": 40.48,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.19,
"edge_pp": 5.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.46,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.11,
"edge_pp": 0.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"market_prob_pct": 35.06,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn (40.5%).",
"However, Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +28.6%, 5/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.45,
"closing_odds": 2.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.45,
"entry_odds": 2.2,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.5
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 28.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 13m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/6 books lengthened Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota together (28.6% drift, score 84) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.70",
"2.40",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.72 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 13m",
"pick_team": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.72"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.54,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,4.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota odds \u2191 +28.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota odds \u2191 +28.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_team_name": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rimavska-sobota",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"away_team_id": 10557,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10557.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rimavsk\u00e1 Sobota",
"away_team_public_id": "3gnXPVLYIkvOE0",
"away_team_slug": "rimavska-sobota",
"country_code": "SK",
"country_display_name": "Slovakia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sk.svg",
"country_id": 140,
"country_name": "Slovakia",
"fixture_id": 1565718,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Slovakia",
"home_team_display_name": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"home_team_id": 14956,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14956.webp",
"home_team_name": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"home_team_public_id": "0sWsOG1ECHstsO",
"home_team_slug": "dolny-kubin",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dolny-kubin",
"league_country": "Slovakia",
"league_country_display": "Slovakia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Ba Slovakia - Trung t\u00e2m",
"league_id": 646,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/646.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Ba Slovakia - Trung t\u00e2m",
"league_public_id": "3nVlzigKTU1zir",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:30:00",
"public_id": "0CNOAlA56KsAGO",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4492,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.1082,
"implied_prob": 0.3506,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3506,
"draw": 0.2446,
"home": 0.4048
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3511
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2767,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0573,
"implied_prob": 0.2446,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3506,
"draw": 0.2446,
"home": 0.4048
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.259
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4142,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1578,
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3506,
"draw": 0.2446,
"home": 0.4048
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3828
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": -0.0419,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": 0.0791,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.1028,
"ev": -0.2261,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.102,
"alpha_yes": 0.1403,
"best_no_odd": 2.82,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1269,
"edge_yes": -0.1269,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2831,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0502,
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1104,
"implied_no": 0.3281,
"implied_yes": 0.6719,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.102,
"best_odd": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3411
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1403,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.6719,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6541
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3411,
"p_final_yes": 0.6541,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1839,
"alpha_under": 0.1337,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.63,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.39,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.62,
"edge_over": -0.17,
"edge_under": 0.17,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1356,
"ev_under": 0.3623,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0318,
"implied_over": 0.652,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6534,
"implied_under": 0.348,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3466,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1839,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6534,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6219
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.3466,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3696
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6219,
"p_final_under": 0.3696,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1578,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
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}
},
"game_type": {
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},
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},
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},
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"code": "clear_edge",
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},
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],
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"teams": {
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"home": "Doln\u00fd Kub\u00edn"
},
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"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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"raw_edge_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.3,
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}
},
"fixture_id": 1565718,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:29:51.830827+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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