AI correctly predicted the Zorya Luhansk win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 2-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zorya Luhansk | 54.6% | 36.6% | +18.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 24.0% | 34.1% | -10.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Kolos Kovalivka | 21.4% | 29.2% | -7.9 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Zorya Luhansk's win probability at 54.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 36.6%, a difference of 18.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Zorya Luhansk win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Zorya Luhansk.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Zorya Luhansk attacking xG significantly stronger (2.01 vs 1.21)
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Zorya Luhansk more conservatively (36.6% vs model 54.6%, 18.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Zorya Luhansk win 2–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zorya Luhansk 54.6% · Draw 24.0% · Kolos Kovalivka 21.4%
- xG · Zorya Luhansk 2.01 — Kolos Kovalivka 1.21
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zorya Luhansk 2.53 · Draw 2.72 · Kolos Kovalivka 3.17
- Implied 1X2 · Zorya Luhansk 36.6% · Draw 34.1% · Kolos Kovalivka 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Zorya Luhansk 2.53 · Draw 2.72 · Kolos Kovalivka 3.17
- Implied 1X2 · Zorya Luhansk 36.6% · Draw 34.1% · Kolos Kovalivka 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Zorya Luhansk win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
10/100
Betting Confidence
43/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.53
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Zorya Luhansk win · Zorya Luhansk 2–0 Kolos Kovalivka
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
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"match_winner": {
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"over_under": {
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-31 15:00:49",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-31 14:31:12",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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}
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"movement": [
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"market_cards": [
{
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"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
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"tier": "best"
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{
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{
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"tier": "risk",
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"alert_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.99,
"hero_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"market_prob_pct": 36.6,
"market_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"model_prob_pct": 54.6,
"model_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 18.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0767,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3818,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Zorya Luhansk at 54.6% vs market 36.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Zorya Luhansk as the stronger side (54.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zorya Luhansk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Zorya Luhansk \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.53 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565438 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.53 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"Decision strength: 3.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0767,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5462,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3819,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.23076923076923078,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.99,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.99,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 49.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 2.01,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.01,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 2.01 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +49%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"steam_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0767,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3818,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Zorya Luhansk at 54.6% vs market 36.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Zorya Luhansk as the stronger side (54.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zorya Luhansk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Zorya Luhansk \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.53 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565438 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.53 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"Decision strength: 3.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0767,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5462,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3819,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Zorya Luhansk 2.01 xG vs Kolos Kovalivka 1.21 \u2192 Zorya Luhansk 54.6%",
"Market: Zorya Luhansk ~36.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Zorya Luhansk odds \u2191 +6.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Zorya Luhansk, but the market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 17.99,
"fair_prob": 54.64,
"label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"market_prob": 36.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.08,
"fair_prob": 24.01,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.9,
"fair_prob": 21.35,
"label": "Kolos Kovalivka",
"market_prob": 29.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 17.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Zorya Luhansk",
"market_prob_pct": 36.65,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Zorya Luhansk"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Zorya Luhansk\u0027s win probability at 54.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 36.6%, a difference of 18.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 17.99,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.0,
"model_prob_pct": 54.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Zorya Luhansk 2.01 xG vs Kolos Kovalivka 1.21 \u2192 Zorya Luhansk 54.6%",
"Market: Zorya Luhansk ~36.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Zorya Luhansk odds \u2191 +6.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Zorya Luhansk, but the market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.99,
"hero_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Zorya Luhansk odds lengthened \u2191 +6.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Zorya Luhansk.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Zorya Luhansk.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Zorya Luhansk more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Zorya Luhansk (\u2191 +6.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.99,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 30.6 pp (at 54.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 30.6,
"max_prob_pct": 54.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"largest_gap_pp": 18.0,
"lead": "The model rates Zorya Luhansk considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 17.99,
"edge_pp": 17.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"market_prob_pct": 36.65,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.08,
"edge_pp": -10.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.09,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.9,
"edge_pp": -7.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kolos Kovalivka",
"market_prob_pct": 29.25,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Zorya Luhansk (36.6%).",
"Zorya Luhansk odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.5%, 3/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Zorya Luhansk, Market \u2192 Zorya Luhansk, while Zorya Luhansk odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.53,
"closing_odds": 2.53,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.53,
"entry_odds": 2.53,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Zorya Luhansk (swing 2.68 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.45) \u2014 net 6.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.53",
"2.42",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.68 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 54m",
"pick_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.68"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.53,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Market moved away from Zorya Luhansk while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_team_name": "Zorya Luhansk",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kolos Kovalivka",
"away_team_id": 3627,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3627.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kolos Kovalivka",
"away_team_slug": "kolos-kovalivka",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1565438,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Zorya Luhansk",
"home_team_id": 599,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/599.webp",
"home_team_name": "Zorya Luhansk",
"home_team_slug": "zorya-luhansk",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ukraine",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ukraine",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-31 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kyiv",
"venue_name": "Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2645,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1389,
"implied_prob": 0.2925,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2925,
"draw": 0.3409,
"home": 0.3665
},
"model_prob": 0.2136,
"p_final": 0.2716
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.382,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0385,
"ev": -0.1773,
"implied_prob": 0.3409,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2925,
"draw": 0.3409,
"home": 0.3665
},
"model_prob": 0.2403,
"p_final": 0.3025
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3287,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0591,
"ev": 0.0767,
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2925,
"draw": 0.3409,
"home": 0.3665
},
"model_prob": 0.5462,
"p_final": 0.4256
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": -0.1019,
"ev": -0.323,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.2136
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.1274,
"ev": -0.3465,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.2403
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.1509,
"ev": 0.3818,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.5462
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.22,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0767,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3818,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0767,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0767,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3818,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Zorya Luhansk at 54.6% vs market 36.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Zorya Luhansk as the stronger side (54.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zorya Luhansk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Zorya Luhansk \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.53 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565438 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.53 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"Decision strength: 3.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Zorya Luhansk, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0767,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5462,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3819,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.62,
"draw_prob": 0.2403,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5462,
"over_prob": 0.624,
"total_xg": 3.22,
"under_prob": 0.376,
"xg_diff": 0.8
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0591,
"ev": 0.0767,
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5462,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Zorya Luhansk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.624,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565438,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0767,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2136,
"draw": 0.2403,
"home": 0.5462
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kolos Kovalivka",
"home": "Zorya Luhansk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.033515,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0767,
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5462,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0767,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5462,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3819,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565438,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-31T15:00:53.031712+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Zorya Luhansk & Kolos Kovalivka!
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Giải Ngoại hạng Ukraine — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty Lviv | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Chornomorets | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Polessya | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty Lviv | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 5 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Bukovyna | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Kudrivka | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 2 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4 |
