The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected FCSB at 52.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 FCSB Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 2-2 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCSB | 52.6% | 67.5% | -14.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 24.1% | 19.6% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Petrolul Ploiești | 23.3% | 12.9% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates FCSB's win probability at 67.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 52.6%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about FCSB than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.31) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned FCSB; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FCSB by 14.9 percentage points (67.5% vs model 52.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 19:18 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FCSB 52.6% · Draw 24.1% · Petrolul Ploiești 23.3%
- xG · FCSB 1.86 — Petrolul Ploiești 1.45
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FCSB 1.41 · Draw 4.85 · Petrolul Ploiești 7.36
- Implied 1X2 · FCSB 67.5% · Draw 19.6% · Petrolul Ploiești 12.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · FCSB 1.41 · Draw 4.85 · Petrolul Ploiești 7.36
- Implied 1X2 · FCSB 67.5% · Draw 19.6% · Petrolul Ploiești 12.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
25/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.41
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · FCSB 2–2 Petrolul Ploiești
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
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"over_prob": 64.3,
"sort_key": 10106.92,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 35.7,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1464,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.6,
"text": "-14.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6746,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0802,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 8.0,
"text": "+8.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5261,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "FCSB",
"sort_key": 5264.16,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"alert_team": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.89,
"hero_label": "FCSB",
"market_prob_pct": 67.5,
"market_team": "FCSB",
"model_prob_pct": 52.6,
"model_team": "FCSB",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2521,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.715,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FCSB at 52.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FCSB as the value side (52.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FCSB",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side FCSB \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +72% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565252 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +25.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +72% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1464,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6746,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5261,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.8,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8181818181818182,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.89,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.45,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 38.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.86,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.86,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.86 \u00b7 Away xG 1.45 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +38%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"steam_team": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2521,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.715,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FCSB at 52.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FCSB as the value side (52.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FCSB",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side FCSB \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +72% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565252 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +25.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +72% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1464,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6746,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5261,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.8,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FCSB 1.86 xG vs Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti 1.45 \u2192 FCSB 52.6%",
"Market: FCSB ~67.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti odds \u2191 +19.0%"
],
"one_liner": "FCSB projects stronger on expected goals (+0.41 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.89,
"fair_prob": 52.57,
"label": "FCSB",
"market_prob": 67.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.51,
"fair_prob": 24.12,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.4,
"fair_prob": 23.32,
"label": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"market_prob": 12.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.01,
"fair_prob": 64.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.01,
"fair_prob": 35.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.66,
"fair_prob": 65.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.24,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.66,
"fair_prob": 34.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 52.57,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FCSB",
"market_prob_pct": 67.46,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FCSB\u0027s win probability at 67.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 52.6%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "FCSB",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 67.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.9,
"model_prob_pct": 52.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "FCSB \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FCSB 1.86 xG vs Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti 1.45 \u2192 FCSB 52.6%",
"Market: FCSB ~67.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti odds \u2191 +19.0%"
],
"one_liner": "FCSB projects stronger on expected goals (+0.41 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.89,
"hero_label": "FCSB",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti odds lengthened \u2191 +19.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about FCSB than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about FCSB than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors FCSB more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/11) supports the current market view on Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 28.4 pp (at 52.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 28.4,
"max_prob_pct": 52.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "FCSB",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices FCSB higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.89,
"edge_pp": -14.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 52.57,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FCSB",
"market_prob_pct": 67.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.51,
"edge_pp": 4.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.12,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.4,
"edge_pp": 10.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"market_prob_pct": 12.92,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FCSB (67.5%).",
"However, Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +19.0%, 9/11) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"FCSB \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 70.92,
"closing_odds": 1.41,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 70.92,
"entry_odds": 1.41,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "9/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 130h 5m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/11 books lengthened Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti together (19.0% drift, score 60) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.36",
"6.30",
"5.25"
],
"display": "7.60 \u2192 4.82 \u2192 6.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 130h 5m",
"pick_team": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.82"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.25,
7.36,
6.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.36"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.25,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti odds \u2191 +19.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti odds \u2191 +19.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/11",
"current_odds": 6.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_team_name": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "petrolul-ploiesti",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"away_team_id": 2598,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2598.webp",
"away_team_name": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"away_team_public_id": "1S2kSHGbhkLt75",
"away_team_slug": "petrolul-ploiesti",
"country_code": "RO",
"country_display_name": "Romania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_id": 131,
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1565252,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "FCSB",
"home_team_id": 559,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/559.webp",
"home_team_name": "FCSB",
"home_team_public_id": "5MzYAS9Lammw9z",
"home_team_slug": "fcsb",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fcsb",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_country_display": "Romania",
"league_display_name": "Liga I Romania",
"league_id": 283,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/283.webp",
"league_name": "Liga I Romania",
"league_public_id": "537DDrptsfgMdK",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3HMv0mAhJbWvYb",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Bucharest",
"venue_name": "Arena Nationala"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1689,
"best_odd": 7.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": 0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.1292,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1292,
"draw": 0.1961,
"home": 0.6746
},
"model_prob": 0.233,
"p_final": 0.1468
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1866,
"best_odd": 4.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.1961,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1292,
"draw": 0.1961,
"home": 0.6746
},
"model_prob": 0.2409,
"p_final": 0.2045
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4663,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0693,
"ev": -0.1464,
"implied_prob": 0.6746,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1292,
"draw": 0.1961,
"home": 0.6746
},
"model_prob": 0.5261,
"p_final": 0.6054
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 7.36,
"edge": 0.0971,
"ev": 0.715,
"implied_prob": 0.1359,
"model_prob": 0.233
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.85,
"edge": 0.0347,
"ev": 0.1682,
"implied_prob": 0.2062,
"model_prob": 0.2409
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.1831,
"ev": -0.2582,
"implied_prob": 0.7092,
"model_prob": 0.5261
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1809,
"alpha_yes": 0.1809,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.9,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1566,
"edge_yes": 0.1566,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3487,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1323,
"ev_yes": 0.2521,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0283,
"implied_no": 0.4976,
"implied_yes": 0.5024,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1323,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.341,
"p_final": 0.469
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0283,
"ev": -0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.659,
"p_final": 0.531
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.469,
"p_final_yes": 0.531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2297,
"alpha_under": 0.2088,
"best_over_odd": 1.74,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.655,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.155,
"edge_over": 0.0801,
"edge_under": -0.0801,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1188,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0345,
"ev_under": -0.1967,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0987,
"implied_over": 0.5629,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5656,
"implied_under": 0.4371,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4344,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2297,
"best_odd": 1.655,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0345,
"implied_prob": 0.5656,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.5834
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2088,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.4344,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.4182
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5834,
"p_final_under": 0.4182,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.31,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2521,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.715,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2521,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2521,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.715,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FCSB at 52.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FCSB as the value side (52.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FCSB",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side FCSB \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +72% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565252 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +25.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +72% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1464,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6746,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5261,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.8,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.659,
"draw_prob": 0.2409,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5261,
"over_prob": 0.643,
"total_xg": 3.31,
"under_prob": 0.357,
"xg_diff": 0.41
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.1292,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.233,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0693,
"ev": -0.1464,
"implied_prob": 0.6746,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5261,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FCSB"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0283,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.659,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1323,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.341,
"p_final": 0.469
},
"p_final": 0.531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0283,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0283,
"ev": -0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.659,
"p_final": 0.531
}
},
"edge": 0.1566,
"ev": 0.2521,
"implied_prob": 0.5024,
"model_prob": 0.659,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2297,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.655,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.5656,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2297,
"best_odd": 1.655,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0345,
"implied_prob": 0.5656,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.5834
},
"p_final": 0.5834,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0345,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2088,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.4344,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.4182
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0801,
"ev": 0.1188,
"implied_prob": 0.5629,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565252,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2521,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.233,
"draw": 0.2409,
"home": 0.5261
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1188,
"implied_prob": 0.5629,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1188,
"implied_prob": 0.5629,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Petrolul Ploie\u0219ti",
"home": "FCSB"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.191054,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2521,
"implied_prob": 0.5024,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.659,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1464,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6746,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5261,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565252,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T19:18:16.999695+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho FCSB & Petrolul Ploiești!
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Đăng ký ngay
Liga I Romania — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo București | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 2 | Rapid București | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | CFR Cluj | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | UTA Arad | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | FCSB | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 20 |
| 2 | Dinamo București | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 23 |
| 3 | CFR Cluj | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rapid București | 10 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | UTA Arad | 10 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 19 |
| 10 | FCSB | 10 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid București | 10 | 4.0 | 1.6 | +2.4 | 21 |
| 2 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 1.7 | 1.0 | +0.7 | 14 |
| 3 | Dinamo București | 10 | 3.6 | 3.0 | +0.6 | 23 |
| 4 | FCSB | 10 | 1.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 2.9 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 8 |
| 6 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1 |
| 7 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 2.6 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 11 |
| 8 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.5 | 11 |
| 9 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 15 |
| 10 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 1.4 | 2.2 | -0.8 | 19 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 1.4 | 3.6 | -2.2 | 13 |
| 12 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | — | — | — | 20 |
| 13 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 14 | CFR Cluj | 9 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 15 | UTA Arad | 10 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 16 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | — | — | — | 10 |
