AI correctly predicted the České Budějovice U19 win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 České Budějovice U19 České Budějovice U19 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| České Budějovice U19 | 36.1% | 49.0% | -12.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.6% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Pardubice U19 | 34.2% | 28.4% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates České Budějovice U19's win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (České Budějovice U19 win 4–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about České Budějovice U19 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced České Budějovice U19 higher (49.0% vs model 36.1%, 12.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (České Budějovice U19 win 4–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · České Budějovice U19 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Pardubice U19 34.2%
- xG · České Budějovice U19 1.32 — Pardubice U19 1.28
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · České Budějovice U19 1.80 · Draw 3.91 · Pardubice U19 3.11
- Implied 1X2 · České Budějovice U19 49.0% · Draw 22.6% · Pardubice U19 28.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · České Budějovice U19 1.80 · Draw 3.91 · Pardubice U19 3.11
- Implied 1X2 · České Budějovice U19 49.0% · Draw 22.6% · Pardubice U19 28.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result České Budějovice U19 win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
35/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
České Budějovice U19 win · České Budějovice U19 4–1 Pardubice U19
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2299,
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"raw_pct": -23.0,
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"text": "-4.3%"
},
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"side_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
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"tier": "bad_ev"
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"alert_team": "Pardubice U19",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.93,
"hero_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"market_team": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2299,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.93,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"steam_team": "Pardubice U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2299,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 1.32 xG vs Pardubice U19 1.28 \u2192 \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 36.1%",
"Market: \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 ~49.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Pardubice U19 \u2193 -10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19, but sharp money moved toward Pardubice U19.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.93,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"market_prob": 49.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.07,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.86,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Pardubice U19",
"market_prob": 28.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.27,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 70.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.27,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 29.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.9,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 69.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.9,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 30.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.04,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Pardubice U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19\u0027s win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 1.32 xG vs Pardubice U19 1.28 \u2192 \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 36.1%",
"Market: \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 ~49.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Pardubice U19 \u2193 -10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19, but sharp money moved toward Pardubice U19.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.93,
"hero_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Pardubice U19 odds shortened \u2193 -10.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Pardubice U19, with odds shortening by 10.8%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Pardubice U19 \u2014 odds shortened by 10.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Pardubice U19, with odds shortening by 10.8%.",
"Buying interest on Pardubice U19 \u2014 odds shortened by 10.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Pardubice U19 has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 10.8%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.93,
"edge_pp": -12.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.07,
"edge_pp": 7.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.86,
"edge_pp": 5.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pardubice U19",
"market_prob_pct": 28.38,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Pardubice U19 \u2014 odds shortened by 10.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 (49.0%).",
"However, Pardubice U19 has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -10.8%, 4/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19, Market \u2192 \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19, Recent sharp money \u2192 Pardubice U19.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.56,
"closing_odds": 1.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.56,
"entry_odds": 1.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Pardubice U19 (10.8%, 4/7) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.25",
"3.08",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.75 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 17m",
"pick_team": "Pardubice U19",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
3.11,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,7.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Pardubice U19",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Market moved toward Pardubice U19 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Pardubice U19",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Pardubice U19",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Pardubice U19",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pardubice-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pardubice U19",
"away_team_id": 14836,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14836.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pardubice U19",
"away_team_public_id": "2ZcuttHnqG2gt1",
"away_team_slug": "pardubice-u19",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1565098,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"home_team_id": 14841,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14841.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"home_team_public_id": "49ZPwhuZdiKOPP",
"home_team_slug": "ceske-budejovice-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ceske-budejovice-u19",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t U19 C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"league_id": 668,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/668.webp",
"league_name": "H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t U19 C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"league_public_id": "52sRLwO4QI5y39",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 09:00:00",
"public_id": "4IfZ1KwdKldJhT",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2736,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0674,
"implied_prob": 0.2838,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2838,
"draw": 0.2258,
"home": 0.4904
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2999
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2681,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.2258,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2838,
"draw": 0.2258,
"home": 0.4904
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2448
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4835,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0626,
"ev": -0.2299,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2838,
"draw": 0.2258,
"home": 0.4904
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4278
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": 0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.3215,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": 0.0409,
"ev": 0.16,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.1946,
"ev": -0.3503,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1404,
"alpha_yes": 0.1931,
"best_no_odd": 3.13,
"best_yes_odd": 1.33,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.149,
"edge_yes": -0.149,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4242,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0262,
"ev_yes": -0.2751,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1245,
"implied_no": 0.306,
"implied_yes": 0.694,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.3084,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.329
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6916,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6633
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.329,
"p_final_yes": 0.6633,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1658,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.33,
"best_under_odd": 3.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.29,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.04,
"edge_over": -0.2227,
"edge_under": 0.2227,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3589,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1414,
"ev_under": 0.6835,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0408,
"implied_over": 0.7047,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7021,
"implied_under": 0.2953,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2979,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1658,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1414,
"implied_prob": 0.7021,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6656
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2979,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3155
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6656,
"p_final_under": 0.3155,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pardubice U19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2299,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0626,
"ev": -0.2299,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.3084,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.3084,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.329
},
"p_final": 0.329,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0262,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6916,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6633
}
},
"edge": 0.149,
"ev": 0.4242,
"implied_prob": 0.306,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"market_prob": 0.2979,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1658,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1414,
"implied_prob": 0.7021,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6656
},
"p_final": 0.3155,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0408,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2979,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3155
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2227,
"ev": 0.6835,
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1565098,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6835,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4242,
"implied_prob": 0.306,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4242,
"implied_prob": 0.306,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pardubice U19",
"home": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.247837,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6835,
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2299,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565098,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T08:59:17.226428+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Cộng hòa Séc. Hạng Nhất U19 Cộng hòa Séc Dự đoán
