AI correctly predicted the York City win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
B-
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 York City York City ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York City | 43.2% | 56.5% | -13.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.4% | 22.3% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Gillingham | 31.4% | 21.2% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates York City's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.2%, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (York City win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about York City than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.30) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced York City higher (56.5% vs model 43.2%, 13.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (York City win 3–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · York City 43.1% · Draw 25.4% · Gillingham 31.5%
- xG · York City 1.79 — Gillingham 1.51
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · York City 1.68 · Draw 4.26 · Gillingham 4.48
- Implied 1X2 · York City 56.5% · Draw 22.3% · Gillingham 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · York City 1.68 · Draw 4.26 · Gillingham 4.48
- Implied 1X2 · York City 56.5% · Draw 22.3% · Gillingham 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result York City win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
33/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.68
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
York City win · York City 3–0 Gillingham
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1583,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0274,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 2.7,
"text": "+2.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2754,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "York City",
"sort_key": 5221.92,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"alert_team": "York City",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.33,
"hero_label": "York City",
"market_prob_pct": 56.5,
"market_team": "York City",
"model_prob_pct": 43.2,
"model_team": "York City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1254,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates York City at 43.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies York City as the value side (43.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "York City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side York City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.13 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563778 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.13 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2754,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.33,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.33,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.51,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 33.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.79,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.79,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.79 \u00b7 Away xG 1.51 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +33%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"steam_team": "York City",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1254,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates York City at 43.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies York City as the value side (43.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "York City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side York City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.13 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563778 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.13 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2754,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: York City 1.79 xG vs Gillingham 1.51 \u2192 York City 43.2%",
"Market: York City ~56.5% implied",
"Market Drift: York City odds \u2191 +5.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours York City, but the market has moved away from York City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.33,
"fair_prob": 43.19,
"label": "York City",
"market_prob": 56.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.1,
"fair_prob": 25.39,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.23,
"fair_prob": 31.42,
"label": "Gillingham",
"market_prob": 21.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.63,
"fair_prob": 64.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.63,
"fair_prob": 35.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.45,
"fair_prob": 66.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.45,
"fair_prob": 33.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.19,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "York City",
"market_prob_pct": 56.52,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "York City"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates York City\u0027s win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 43.2%, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.33,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "York City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 56.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.3,
"model_prob_pct": 43.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: York City 1.79 xG vs Gillingham 1.51 \u2192 York City 43.2%",
"Market: York City ~56.5% implied",
"Market Drift: York City odds \u2191 +5.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours York City, but the market has moved away from York City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.33,
"hero_label": "York City",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "York City odds lengthened \u2191 +5.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about York City than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on York City.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about York City than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on York City."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors York City more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on York City (\u2191 +5.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on York City."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.33,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.8 pp (at 43.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.8,
"max_prob_pct": 43.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "York City",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices York City higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.33,
"edge_pp": -13.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.19,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "York City",
"market_prob_pct": 56.52,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.1,
"edge_pp": 3.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.29,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.23,
"edge_pp": 10.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gillingham",
"market_prob_pct": 21.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on York City.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers York City (56.5%).",
"York City odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.1%, 7/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 York City, Market \u2192 York City, while York City odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.52,
"closing_odds": 1.68,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.52,
"entry_odds": 1.68,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.65,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 126h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on York City (5.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.68",
"1.62",
"1.57"
],
"display": "1.68 \u2192 1.43 \u2192 1.65",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 126h 29m",
"pick_team": "York City",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.68"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.43"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.65"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.57,
1.68,
1.65
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.57"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.57"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.68"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.65"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.57,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on York City",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "York City",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.65,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"open_odds": 1.57,
"summary": "Market moved away from York City while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "York City",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 1.65,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"open_odds": 1.57,
"pick_team": "York City",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "York City",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gillingham",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gillingham",
"away_team_id": 1347,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1347.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gillingham",
"away_team_public_id": "5V9XH2ndnPNthO",
"away_team_slug": "gillingham",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1563778,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "York City",
"home_team_id": 1828,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1828.webp",
"home_team_name": "York City",
"home_team_public_id": "13YBAQBsbKmK6B",
"home_team_slug": "york",
"ht.home_team_slug": "york",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "League Two",
"league_id": 42,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/42.webp",
"league_name": "League Two",
"league_public_id": "20ois23TghHC4h",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4MZ1EciyiUiBJk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "York City",
"venue_name": "York City`s LNER Community Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1692,
"best_odd": 4.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": 0.0274,
"implied_prob": 0.2119,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2119,
"draw": 0.2229,
"home": 0.5652
},
"model_prob": 0.3147,
"p_final": 0.2293
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1907,
"best_odd": 4.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0059,
"ev": -0.0252,
"implied_prob": 0.2229,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2119,
"draw": 0.2229,
"home": 0.5652
},
"model_prob": 0.254,
"p_final": 0.2288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4795,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0642,
"ev": -0.1583,
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2119,
"draw": 0.2229,
"home": 0.5652
},
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"p_final": 0.501
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.48,
"edge": 0.0915,
"ev": 0.4098,
"implied_prob": 0.2232,
"model_prob": 0.3147
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.26,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": 0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.2347,
"model_prob": 0.254
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.1639,
"ev": -0.2754,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.4313
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1918,
"alpha_yes": 0.211,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0945,
"edge_yes": 0.0945,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1956,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1211,
"ev_yes": 0.1254,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0475,
"implied_no": 0.4325,
"implied_yes": 0.5675,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1918,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1211,
"implied_prob": 0.4364,
"model_prob": 0.338,
"p_final": 0.4175
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0475,
"implied_prob": 0.5636,
"model_prob": 0.662,
"p_final": 0.5843
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4175,
"p_final_yes": 0.5843,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2256,
"alpha_under": 0.1641,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": 0.0563,
"edge_under": -0.0563,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0576,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0594,
"ev_under": -0.1456,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"implied_over": 0.5847,
"implied_over_mf": 0.582,
"implied_under": 0.4153,
"implied_under_mf": 0.418,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2256,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"p_final": 0.5953
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1641,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.359,
"p_final": 0.4083
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5953,
"p_final_under": 0.4083,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.3,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1254,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4098,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1254,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1254,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates York City at 43.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies York City as the value side (43.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "York City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side York City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.13 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563778 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.13 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from York City, but the model still strongly favours York City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2754,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.662,
"draw_prob": 0.254,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4313,
"over_prob": 0.641,
"total_xg": 3.3,
"under_prob": 0.359,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0274,
"implied_prob": 0.2119,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3147,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Gillingham",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0642,
"ev": -0.1583,
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "York City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.5636,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.662,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1918,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1211,
"implied_prob": 0.4364,
"model_prob": 0.338,
"p_final": 0.4175
},
"p_final": 0.5843,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0475,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0475,
"implied_prob": 0.5636,
"model_prob": 0.662,
"p_final": 0.5843
}
},
"edge": 0.0945,
"ev": 0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.5675,
"model_prob": 0.662,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2256,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0133,
"market_prob": 0.582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.641,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2256,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"p_final": 0.5953
},
"p_final": 0.5953,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0594,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1641,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.359,
"p_final": 0.4083
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0563,
"ev": 0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.5847,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1563778,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1254,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3147,
"draw": 0.254,
"home": 0.4313
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gillingham",
"home": "York City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.095467,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.5675,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.662,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2754,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1563778,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:59:33.220917+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho York City & Gillingham!
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Đăng ký ngay
League Two — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Cheltenham Town | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | York City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Crewe Alexandra | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Salford City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Rotherham United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Colchester United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Oldham Athletic | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury Town | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 19 | Newport County | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 15 |
| 2 | Cheltenham Town | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 3 | York City | 7 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 5 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 | Walsall | 7 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 13 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Rotherham United | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Newport County | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Tranmere Rovers | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 | Salford City | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Oldham Athletic | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Colchester United | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Crewe Alexandra | 7 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 19 | Rochdale | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 20 | Crawley Town | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Shrewsbury Town | 7 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 22 | Exeter City | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 23 | Northampton Town | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 7 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 6 |
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 3 | Rotherham United | 7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | +1.5 | 9 |
| 4 | Northampton Town | 7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | +1.3 | 6 |
| 5 | Barnet | 7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | +1.0 | 15 |
| 6 | Shrewsbury Town | 7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | +0.9 | 7 |
| 7 | Crewe Alexandra | 7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 8 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | +0.8 | 13 |
| 9 | Oldham Athletic | 7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 12 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 12 | York City | 7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | -0.4 | 11 |
| 13 | Chesterfield | 7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 11 |
| 14 | Port Vale | 7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | -0.6 | 5 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | -0.8 | 6 |
| 16 | Tranmere Rovers | 7 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -0.9 | 10 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | -0.9 | 4 |
| 18 | Salford City | 7 | 1.8 | 2.8 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 19 | Swindon Town | 7 | 0.3 | 1.6 | -1.3 | 10 |
| 20 | Cheltenham Town | 7 | 0.7 | 2.2 | -1.5 | 12 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 7 | 1.8 | 3.5 | -1.7 | 12 |
| 22 | Colchester United | 7 | 0.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | 9 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 7 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 24 | Newport County | 7 | — | — | — | 6 |
