AI correctly predicted the Pardubice II win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Pardubice II Pardubice II ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrudim | 34.2% | 31.2% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.9% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Pardubice II | 36.1% | 45.9% | -9.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Pardubice II's win probability at 45.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Pardubice II win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Pardubice II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Pardubice II higher (45.9% vs model 36.1%, 9.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Pardubice II win 0–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Chrudim 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Pardubice II 36.1%
- xG · Chrudim 1.28 — Pardubice II 1.32
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Chrudim 2.90 · Draw 3.95 · Pardubice II 1.97
- Implied 1X2 · Chrudim 31.2% · Draw 22.9% · Pardubice II 45.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Chrudim 2.90 · Draw 3.95 · Pardubice II 1.97
- Implied 1X2 · Chrudim 31.2% · Draw 22.9% · Pardubice II 45.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Pardubice II win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
51/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.97
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Pardubice II win · Chrudim 0–1 Pardubice II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Pardubice II",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Pardubice II"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"edge": -0.0982,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
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{
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}
],
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
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"scores": [
{
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
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{
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"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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"prob": 63.8
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Pardubice II"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 22.9,
"home": 31.19
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 08:14:37",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 07:44:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Chrudim",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": 0.0,
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"market_odds": 8.0,
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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"top5": [
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
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"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"edge": 0.0204,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1344,
"implied_prob": 0.6271,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.599
},
"p_final": 0.3933,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2587,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0442,
"under": {
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"value_side": "under"
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -26.2,
"text": "-26.2%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3209,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10438.81,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
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"edge": 0.0154,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3541,
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0429,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.6459,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.183,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.3,
"text": "+18.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.5,
"text": "-21.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.183,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10164.7,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1945,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.4,
"text": "-19.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4591,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0235,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.4,
"text": "-2.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.289,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Pardubice II",
"sort_key": 1794.125,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"alert_team": "Pardubice II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.8,
"hero_label": "Pardubice II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.9,
"market_team": "Pardubice II",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Pardubice II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pardubice II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pardubice II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pardubice II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1945,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4591,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.289,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.7,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.8,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"steam_team": "Pardubice II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pardubice II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pardubice II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pardubice II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1945,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4591,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.289,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chrudim 1.28 xG vs Pardubice II 1.32 \u2192 Pardubice II 36.1%",
"Market: Pardubice II ~45.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Pardubice II odds \u2191 +4.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pardubice II, but the market has moved away from Pardubice II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.05,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Chrudim",
"market_prob": 31.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.75,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.8,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Pardubice II",
"market_prob": 45.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.83,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.83,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Pardubice II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.91,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Pardubice II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Pardubice II\u0027s win probability at 45.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pardubice II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chrudim 1.28 xG vs Pardubice II 1.32 \u2192 Pardubice II 36.1%",
"Market: Pardubice II ~45.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Pardubice II odds \u2191 +4.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pardubice II, but the market has moved away from Pardubice II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.8,
"hero_label": "Pardubice II",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Pardubice II odds lengthened \u2191 +4.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Pardubice II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Pardubice II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Pardubice II above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Pardubice II (\u2191 +4.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/6), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Pardubice II",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Pardubice II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.05,
"edge_pp": 3.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chrudim",
"market_prob_pct": 31.19,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.75,
"edge_pp": 6.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.9,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.8,
"edge_pp": -9.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pardubice II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Pardubice II (45.9%).",
"Pardubice II odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.7%, 1/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Pardubice II, Market \u2192 Pardubice II, while Pardubice II odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.76,
"closing_odds": 1.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.76,
"entry_odds": 1.97,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Pardubice II (swing 2.05 \u2192 1.91 \u2192 2.00) \u2014 net 4.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.00",
"1.96",
"1.91"
],
"display": "2.05 \u2192 1.91 \u2192 2.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 45m",
"pick_team": "Pardubice II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.91,
1.97,
2.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,6.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.91,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Pardubice II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"summary": "Market moved away from Pardubice II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Pardubice II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Pardubice II",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_team_name": "Pardubice II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pardubice-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pardubice II",
"away_team_id": 14747,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14747.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pardubice II",
"away_team_public_id": "2n2udqPhYznHSH",
"away_team_slug": "pardubice-ii",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1562763,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "Chrudim",
"home_team_id": 3722,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3722.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chrudim",
"home_team_public_id": "3HwhiXzO4hLoX6",
"home_team_slug": "chrudim",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chrudim",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "H\u1ea1ng Ba - CFL B C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"league_id": 685,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/685.webp",
"league_name": "H\u1ea1ng Ba - CFL B C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"league_public_id": "48dS4TMcwbMM7I",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 08:15:00",
"public_id": "5L5VEUDDa874op",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Chrudim",
"venue_name": "Stadion Za Vodojemem"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5116,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0502,
"ev": -0.1945,
"implied_prob": 0.4591,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4591,
"draw": 0.229,
"home": 0.3119
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4089
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2695,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.229,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4591,
"draw": 0.229,
"home": 0.3119
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2472
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4294,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.3119,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4591,
"draw": 0.229,
"home": 0.3119
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.325
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.1467,
"ev": -0.289,
"implied_prob": 0.5076,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.95,
"edge": 0.0435,
"ev": 0.1719,
"implied_prob": 0.2532,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": -0.0024,
"ev": -0.0071,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1528,
"alpha_yes": 0.21,
"best_no_odd": 2.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0983,
"edge_yes": -0.0983,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.183,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0429,
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1129,
"implied_no": 0.3567,
"implied_yes": 0.6433,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.3541,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3695
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.21,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.6459,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6247
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3695,
"p_final_yes": 0.6247,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1936,
"alpha_under": 0.1408,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.445,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.43,
"edge_over": -0.1435,
"edge_under": 0.1435,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1344,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0442,
"implied_over": 0.6255,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6271,
"implied_under": 0.3745,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3729,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1936,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1344,
"implied_prob": 0.6271,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.599
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.3729,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3933
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.599,
"p_final_under": 0.3933,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pardubice II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pardubice II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pardubice II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pardubice II, but the model still strongly favours Pardubice II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1945,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4591,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.289,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0502,
"ev": -0.1945,
"implied_prob": 0.4591,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Pardubice II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"edge": 0.0154,
"market_prob": 0.3541,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.3541,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3695
},
"p_final": 0.3695,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0429,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.21,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.6459,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6247
}
},
"edge": 0.0983,
"ev": 0.183,
"implied_prob": 0.3567,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"edge": 0.0204,
"market_prob": 0.3729,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1936,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1344,
"implied_prob": 0.6271,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.599
},
"p_final": 0.3933,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0442,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.3729,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3933
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1435,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1562763,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.183,
"implied_prob": 0.3567,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.183,
"implied_prob": 0.3567,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pardubice II",
"home": "Chrudim"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1945,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4591,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.289,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1562763,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T08:14:40.172029+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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