The model missed the final outcome (Znicz Pruszków win 1–3).
The model had projected Lechia Zielona Góra at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Lechia Zielona Góra Znicz Pruszków ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia Zielona Góra | 36.1% | 33.5% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.3% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Znicz Pruszków | 34.2% | 40.2% | -6.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Znicz Pruszków's win probability at 40.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Znicz Pruszków win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Znicz Pruszków. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lechia Zielona Góra by 6.0 percentage points (42.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lechia Zielona Góra 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Znicz Pruszków 34.2%
- xG · Lechia Zielona Góra 1.32 — Znicz Pruszków 1.28
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lechia Zielona Góra 2.74 · Draw 3.48 · Znicz Pruszków 2.28
- Implied 1X2 · Lechia Zielona Góra 33.5% · Draw 26.3% · Znicz Pruszków 40.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Lechia Zielona Góra 2.74 · Draw 3.48 · Znicz Pruszków 2.28
- Implied 1X2 · Lechia Zielona Góra 33.5% · Draw 26.3% · Znicz Pruszków 40.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Znicz Pruszków win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
24/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.28
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Znicz Pruszków win · Lechia Zielona Góra 1–3 Znicz Pruszków
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"selection": null,
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},
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}
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{
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra or Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 15:58:17",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 15:32:33",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"text": "+16.0%"
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{
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.6,
"text": "+16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1655,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10148.95,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0521,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3345,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0503,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.0,
"text": "-5.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0111,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"sort_key": 1787.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"alert_team": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.96,
"hero_label": "Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"market_prob_pct": 33.5,
"market_team": "Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0521,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3345,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36496350364963503,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0111,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.96,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.96,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"steam_team": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0521,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3345,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36496350364963503,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0111,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra 1.32 xG vs Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w 1.28 \u2192 Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra 36.1%",
"Market: Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w ~33.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra \u2193 -9.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.66,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"market_prob": 33.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.31,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.96,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"market_prob": 40.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.01,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.01,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.79,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.79,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"market_prob_pct": 40.2,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w\u0027s win probability at 40.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra 1.32 xG vs Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w 1.28 \u2192 Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra 36.1%",
"Market: Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w ~33.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra \u2193 -9.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.96,
"hero_label": "Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra odds shortened \u2193 -9.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra, with odds shortening by 9.0%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra \u2014 odds shortened by 9.0%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra, with odds shortening by 9.0%.",
"Buying interest on Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra \u2014 odds shortened by 9.0%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 9.0%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.66,
"edge_pp": 2.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"market_prob_pct": 33.45,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.31,
"edge_pp": 3.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.96,
"edge_pp": -5.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"market_prob_pct": 40.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra \u2014 odds shortened by 9.0%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w (33.5%).",
"However, Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -9.0%, 4/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra, Market \u2192 Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w, Recent sharp money \u2192 Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
"closing_odds": 2.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.86,
"entry_odds": 2.28,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 41h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra (9.0%, 4/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.88",
"2.75",
"2.62"
],
"display": "2.90 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 41h 23m",
"pick_team": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
2.74,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,9.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "znicz-pruszkow",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"away_team_id": 6964,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6964.webp",
"away_team_name": "Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"away_team_public_id": "4FNJmgqo4peq0q",
"away_team_slug": "znicz-pruszkow",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1561668,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"home_team_id": 14143,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14143.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"home_team_public_id": "0fPgAvhCCY4O3R",
"home_team_slug": "lechia-zielona-gora",
"ht.home_team_slug": "lechia-zielona-gora",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "II liga \u2013 East",
"league_id": 109,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/109.webp",
"league_name": "II liga \u2013 East",
"league_public_id": "5kAPo8EJElUiHj",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 16:00:00",
"public_id": "4NyedVbfnBGugl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "MOSiR"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4097,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0244,
"ev": -0.1391,
"implied_prob": 0.402,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.402,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.3345
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3776
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.285,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0503,
"implied_prob": 0.2634,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.402,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.3345
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2729
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4322,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0521,
"implied_prob": 0.3345,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.402,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.3345
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.346
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": -0.0962,
"ev": -0.2193,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": 0.0324,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": -0.004,
"ev": -0.011,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1594,
"alpha_yes": 0.2192,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0779,
"edge_yes": -0.0779,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1603,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0638,
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1174,
"implied_no": 0.3771,
"implied_yes": 0.6229,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1594,
"best_odd": 2.395,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3909
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2192,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1174,
"implied_prob": 0.6213,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6046
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3909,
"p_final_yes": 0.6046,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2095,
"alpha_under": 0.1904,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.18,
"edge_over": -0.1001,
"edge_under": 0.1001,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1274,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0516,
"implied_over": 0.5821,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5845,
"implied_under": 0.4179,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4155,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
"alpha": 0.2095,
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"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1274,
"implied_prob": 0.5845,
"model_prob": 0.482,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1904,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0516,
"implied_prob": 0.4155,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4351
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.563,
"p_final_under": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0521,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3345,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36496350364963503,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0111,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
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"total_xg": 2.6,
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"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"ev": -0.0521,
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"max_ev_side": "draw",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.395,
"edge": 0.0122,
"market_prob": 0.3787,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0122,
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"p_final": 0.3909,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0167,
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},
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0195,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0215,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1561668,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
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"stake_mult": 1.0,
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},
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "under",
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{
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],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Znicz Pruszk\u00f3w",
"home": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
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"market": "btts",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
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"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3345,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36496350364963503,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0111,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561668,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T15:58:19.086402+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Lechia Zielona Góra & Znicz Pruszków!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
II liga – East — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Tychy 71 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 4 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Hutnik Kraków | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | Avia Świdnik | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Legia Warszawa II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 9 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 9 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 14 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa II | 9 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 12 |
| 6 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 7 | Hutnik Kraków | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 9 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 11 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 9 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 15 |
| 13 | Tychy 71 | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 |
| 14 | Avia Świdnik | 9 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 9 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 |
